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Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Latest Euro4 showing some potent cells breaking out overnight around the East Midlands and Northants/Cambs now, which is what the Hirlam is also going for. 

Really is going down to the wire this one. Almost like throwing darts blind.. 

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Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted
20 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

By my reckoning, the forecasted 32° area runs up to about Banbury at 4pm:

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Temperature maps for United Kingdom - forecast.co.uk

M.FORECAST.CO.UK
Interactive map with changes in temperature in United Kingdom. Predictions for today and the coming days.

Chiltern hills might create a little lift

 

Always the way. If the weather comes from the SW it gets warmed up by the Thames Valley ,hits the Chilterns and initiates. We get beautiful cloudscapes, but Aylesbury/ Wycombe,etc usually cop the storms. This is coming from the S, do might get lucky. 31c here now

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

More cumulus is starting to bubble up to my east. Reckon it will show up on the sat images soon

04A60C5E-9311-4B81-80EC-BA66CADDAFB2.jpeg

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Calayte Enthusiast

Calayte

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Convective, Snow
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
Posted
19 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

So where does everyone think is a good place to head to for these potential severe storms? 

I am in south Bucks at present only 5 mins from the M40 and randomly picked a small town called Church Stretton between Ludlow and Shrewsbury on the English-Welsh border. Would take about 2hr30. Alternatively I could reach Cannock in 2hrs but it seems the direction of thunderstorms is currently NW rather than NE...? 

 

I think your best bet is West Midlands area, that way at least your closer to the action if you need to make some quick decisions

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Gloucestershire Airport at 28'c at 2pm. This is close to the region of lower-level convergence later needed to help initiate surface based convection.

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Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Latest Euro4 showing some potent cells breaking out overnight around the East Midlands and Northants/Cambs now, which is what the Hirlam is also going for. 

Really is going down to the wire this one. Almost like throwing darts blind.. 

Church Stretton would be a good shout.  You can get a good view from the local hills

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
Just now, Zak M said:

More cumulus is starting to bubble up to my east. Reckon it will show up on the sat images soon

04A60C5E-9311-4B81-80EC-BA66CADDAFB2.jpeg

Over towards Cambridge I’m assuming, where it is scorching hot. The cap is clearly being put under some pressure there. 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Over towards Cambridge I’m assuming, where it is scorching hot. The cap is clearly being put under some pressure there. 

Yep, it is indeed looking towards Cambridge

33c there apparently and with the cap supposedly being broken at around the low 30s it definitely is being put under pressure.

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Ryukai Rising Star

Ryukai

Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Best website for checking current temperatures?

 

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground

WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM
Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide.

Just move them map to where you live and click on a station for more info.

Edited by Ryukai
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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
18 minutes ago, SalopWatcher said:

Lovely part of the world... lots of chances to get up on the hills and a better view... and 20 mins up to Shrewsbury and the A5 and speedy routes east west and north if on a chase. 

Yes I'm not far south of Church Stretton, some nice humidity here at the moment/ Very tropical.  As I type.. big tropical raindrops are falling.

 

 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

We began to hear distant rumbles from much earlier this morning which all seemed to be further west  -  maybe around Pembroke - but in the last hour the storm has reached this location with torrential rain for about 10 minutes accompanied by some lightning but it would have been more spectacular at night.   Most of the lightning was slightly north west of us - over the Preseli Hills - with only the thunder to really measure how much activity there was, but some of it must have been huge going by the noise and vibration.   Now eased up again here but there seems to be more on the way from the south east looking at the rain radar.  It’s odd that we didn’t get much of a heatwave here, but now we’re getting the thundery breakdown.....

Believe it or not, its not a thundery break down. Temps are gonna stay as they are, humidity will most likely rise. The west will probably get more storms over the next few days. 

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Bolt From Blue Apprentice

Bolt From Blue

Posted
  • Location: Leiston
  • Weather Preferences: Three fine days and a thunderstorm
  • Location: Leiston
Posted

Good luck to those running up the M40 later, too close to call for me with the distance I'd need to go.

1500 beer instead, then overnight we will see if anything is worth a crawl out to Cambridge/Kettering way as some have mentioned a few models pointing at.

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Justin1705 Enthusiast

Justin1705

Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton
Posted (edited)

I think, just a maybe. That we could see some initiation further south and into central england. The current radar most represents yesterday aromes run. In the last 10/15 mins convection in north france has increased. I think this could be the trigger as current obs show some places around london are above 32-33c, straining the cap. It was keen for a storm in west wales during early morning- middday and then more widespread during evening. Fingers crossed

 

edit- Ive also realised that everything seems a bit more south and earlier than forecast. I know the arome charts below are 17z and its 15z however it still seems that theres alot of catching up to do. Which means initiation could be further south. Sat24 has the channel filling up as we speak.

D31DEA3D-4F5D-4919-8E31-0C799A4DB6B4.png

D66F3246-B220-412C-9AB6-1FB53FB04C96.png

ACCB2F45-FE9E-46F7-83D6-5522C8A43FBF.png

3CD1A3BC-0E05-4A2B-8F6F-D7B31CC5FEC1.png

Edited by Justin1705
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Calayte Enthusiast

Calayte

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Convective, Snow
  • Location: Oldbury, West Midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

I think, just a maybe. That we could see some initiation further south and into central england. The current radar most represents yesterday aromes run. In the last 10/15 mins convection in north france has increased. I think this could be the trigger as current obs show some places around london are above 32-33c, straining the cap. It was keen for a storm in west wales during early morning- middday and then more widespread during evening. Fingers crossed

D31DEA3D-4F5D-4919-8E31-0C799A4DB6B4.png

D66F3246-B220-412C-9AB6-1FB53FB04C96.png

ACCB2F45-FE9E-46F7-83D6-5522C8A43FBF.png

3CD1A3BC-0E05-4A2B-8F6F-D7B31CC5FEC1.png

That really is looking good if that comes off tonight. That will be some cracking storms.

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
2 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

I think, just a maybe. That we could see some initiation further south and into central england. The current radar most represents yesterday aromes run. In the last 10/15 mins convection in north france has increased. I think this could be the trigger as current obs show some places around london are above 32-33c, straining the cap. It was keen for a storm in west wales during early morning- middday and then more widespread during evening. Fingers crossed

 

I'm not a religious man, but God, I hope so! Sweltering and storm-starved to the max. 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Sferic SW of Birmingham.

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Justin1705 Enthusiast

Justin1705

Posted
  • Location: Luton
  • Location: Luton
Posted
Just now, Calayte said:

That really is looking good if that comes off tonight. That will be some cracking storms.

Dont count me on it, as we know these situations are a nowcasting situation. Some models had nothing all day. Whilst wales lit up like a firework. Its a nowcasting situation. Convection is hard to forecast. Aslong as initiation has strated, we know consitoons are favorable.

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SalopWatcher Enthusiast

SalopWatcher

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury
Posted

Looking at Radar cells rapidly growing to the south of Shrewsbury 30ish miles. Breeding for more further north I suspect. Lightening from cell nearing Bridgenorth that might have our name on it! 

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Pileus to my east! Getting more vertical now.

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