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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Phillippe Papin tweet - currently 7 (yes seven!) areas of interest in the Atlantic at the moment. Ridiculous. Never seen it so active.

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO T144 ... No breakdown by next Wednesday. Looks hot.

UW144-21.GIF?10-18

Absolutely stunning!!theres ths first of the upgrades!!hopefully gfs 12 improves from the 06z!!

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
Posted (edited)

GFS 12Z shows back to reality with low pressure dominating after mid next week.

Edited by Faronstream
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Yup gfs 12z no good!!actually gone backwards on the 12z!!!ah well over to the ecm!!we know ecm and ukmo normally do better with cut off lows so i side with the ukmo at the moment!

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO T144 ... No breakdown by next Wednesday. Looks hot.

UW144-21.GIF?10-18

Very similar to the lunchtime forecast on the BBC 26c Northern England with 30c showing for the Capital.

C.S

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
52 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

UKMO T144 ... No breakdown by next Wednesday. Looks hot.

UW144-21.GIF?10-18

850s down from 16c on Monday and Tuesday to 12c in Wednesday though - perhaps a few degrees down. 25/26c instead of 29/30c? Either way mighty good for mid September!

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted

Will hopefully post a stunning Navgem later but just saw this . Wahoo , GFS and especially UKMo look even better . 

9BE97AF1-5ED8-48E5-B315-6B43AC75B2D4.jpeg

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted

Not a bad Ecm so far again . 

5694DAD0-C1C1-4FAC-BB2F-06C3DB4DF677.gif

DACE2E78-69DB-484C-82E7-8AD6A51496BA.gif

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted

Really like the look of the Navgem tonight . Nice 12zs although Ecm later on get that low in closer and deeper. 

7135380C-B320-4545-87DB-6824625BEF21.png

14EE1DB0-D2B7-4C74-BC7E-F02A04F7F351.png

78E51EFC-AB33-435E-AC91-FAFA21E616AE.png

118C32F2-635A-4A4A-AD94-16BB4EB84591.png

F28C9175-C9EE-4DCE-B97F-C22D5883CF41.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Brilliant ecm!!are we about to see the beginnings of a strong scandi high going into the latter part of september?anyone got precipitation charts for ecm?

  • Like 3
Posted
2 hours ago, Faronstream said:

GFS 12Z shows back to reality with low pressure dominating after mid next week.

One to watch but thankfully the ensembles don't fully support the low pressure fest from the 12z op...

image.thumb.png.d28fad2e4162deb169498f1b2ee8cd07.png

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
27 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Really like the look of the Navgem tonight . Nice 12zs although Ecm later on get that low in closer and deeper. 

7135380C-B320-4545-87DB-6824625BEF21.png

rubbish model!

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Most of the ECM 12z operational is FANTASTIC if you’re a fan of very warm / hot sunny weather, the uppers (850’s) are stunning for mid September, off the scale..if we are comparing like for like, this run is much warmer, for much longer than last nights ECM 12z. I would expect there would be some thunderstorms around next week too!!:shok:☀️?️

B7D05A8F-26D5-4DF6-BC60-052DAECC189E.thumb.png.2c5724436593bffa44ad6378345372d4.png51547D4C-720F-4A88-B16A-5995316CEFC7.thumb.png.8fcecabe03c85a6946a34617edbec706.png532D006E-0EFF-4162-A2F3-7889D995CAB5.thumb.png.d2884e9eb6edc2c67f8ec67c2599bb5e.png9E090B92-E6F9-4819-BFD5-7A86D627F36E.thumb.png.8e0e00ef971c4164c1cda36856206115.png786B6AC7-EC5C-4C9E-971B-20351532B6FD.thumb.png.9e48196b549b7b168b9d34990e8b853c.pngF5D218FA-06A6-40F2-AFAB-960440C4C712.thumb.png.cd46c5d0221625960bfa275d434273be.png2A275781-2075-4578-BE6D-CA5F1408FB66.thumb.png.0ef63503b97bacdca358212f96438f09.png51D91B11-F321-43C1-8FB0-63B20E6E76C9.thumb.png.c712636b246044fa8aa624c5c199be8d.pngDFAFEC83-B26D-49D5-B1C8-338EE44C7ED4.thumb.png.8d4bcba1575662d26a18ad45db77a8e1.png1AB5CD0B-EC25-42C4-ADB8-F9F9AF93101F.thumb.png.e6b0fb1b3b5d935703f28a17603ba000.png283B9F90-866E-403E-B14C-D8E31132F10F.thumb.png.aca1caa5bc190af209cf8a17a44f8a11.png

 

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Missed this earlier - the ARPEGE 12Z going for 30C on Monday 

arpegeuk-31-102-0.png?10-18

The ECM has Tuesday 2 or 3 degrees higher than Monday, and maintains high maximums through to Thursday.

It's a heatwave folks!

Any meaningfull rainfall from ecm mate?

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

To be fair 252,it has every chance of verifying at 96 hrs just as much as any other model

this warm/hot spell looks nailed on now next week but for how long and maybe a few surprises/thunderstorms thrown in for good measure 

latest cpc for 6-10 days,the is quiet a strong hp cell to our N/NE.

610day_03.thumb.gif.b29ffc30de100f1652b9cd8972e1b4a3.gif

Just to add,the ecm mean NH view

anim_htd8.thumb.gif.5e9e20e46afa56e9920509ac459d412b.gif 

looks good to me.

Just really hoping we hit 30c so we make it in consecutive months . I’ll keep posting the Navgem as I’ve noticed that those uppers forecasted are much more inline since just before the last hot spell , I do post it for entertainment value but it is after all a model and output it is so worthy of discussion

Ps , I’m aware Navgem hasn’t got the verification stats of others  a clock is right twice a day though so it will have its day 

Edited by Mark wheeler
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Missed this earlier - the ARPEGE 12Z going for 30C on Monday 

arpegeuk-31-102-0.png?10-18

The ECM has Tuesday 2 or 3 degrees higher than Monday, and maintains high maximums through to Thursday.

It's a heatwave folks!

I always find the ARPEGE a bit low for places away from the South East- it was the case in the August heatwave as well, for us in NW England at least.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Any meaningfull rainfall from ecm mate?

Apart from Scotland, no meaningful rain until next Saturday, and not a lot for central/eastern areas even then.

However i wouldn't be surprised if a couple of last minute thunderstorms pop up?

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

To be fair 252,it has every chance of verifying at 96 hrs just as much as any other model

this warm/hot spell looks nailed on now next week but for how long and maybe a few surprises/thunderstorms thrown in for good measure 

latest cpc for 6-10 days,the is quiet a strong hp cell to our N/NE.

610day_03.thumb.gif.b29ffc30de100f1652b9cd8972e1b4a3.gif

Just to add,the ecm mean NH view

 

looks good to me.

The above chart has an inpossible increase in heights, in excess of 100 DM in 24 hours. Impossible I would say!

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

While its looking mostly dry for most this weekend much of western Scotland will see significant rainfall. 

Tomorrow's rain and frequent persistent showers on saturday likely to give 40-60mm in a few places here. 

12_21_preciptype.thumb.png.6faf57d331ef66d6cab90b3a467a1ce4.png

Then for saturday night into sunday a spell of prolonged heavy rain will effect western Scotland which could get as  much as 80-120mm from this low pressure system with 140-160mm likely on hills altogether including fridays rainfall and a small chance of locally 160-180mm altogether. 20-40mm locally in southern Scotland and northern Ireland is possible aswell. 

12_60_preciptype.thumb.png.7e362b4537892c0b48d1b65cce8d88e2.png

7pm Saturday.. 

2044846234_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_54(1).thumb.jpg.ab94a236d28a0a5c2f0866e25384d1c8.jpg

7am sunday.. 

403087550_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_66(1).thumb.jpg.e14321b237c4721f599627a5f9538126.jpg

1am Monday.. 

422443567_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_84(3).thumb.jpg.a3a65c0fb1257161042f49d95ca76e53.jpg

Through Monday it turns drier for this area. Monday and Tuesday sure is looking very warm even quite hot for the South as southerly winds move in with 28-31c quite likely in a few places but probably cooler for the rest of the week..

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_90.thumb.jpg.710a7b514056542e32bcb0c1d574e916.jpg

12_120_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.59571cf4457fabb91292e331a368657a.png

Edited by jordan smith
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM ensemble mean looking sound, here T144 and T240:

3F9116BB-FE32-4232-AB8E-04BAA948D071.thumb.gif.7180d39819ba5e3ff54aaf2759eff64b.gif3E199B53-6A38-43E7-B18C-67AD1987B582.thumb.gif.2418ed9c943679444a554dbf46e3be50.gif4DCFAFF2-7831-48C4-AB79-0B178D23820A.thumb.gif.dacb089db20b8122b8e64ae694d7f0d6.gifA4676146-A43E-41DB-9354-E21C0231392A.thumb.gif.3985e3faffc76b85186cba5b9c0d4545.gif

I’m late to viewing the other models but all is good, I think for a fairly common setup in September with a return of summer, so that’s all good.  JMA T192 also supports this:

8247D256-1473-4D94-A609-C0C6982C4C52.thumb.gif.dc027c56f4283e3eb5a72318d98b738a.gifF6C57BA6-CB3E-41FF-8263-CD5C2D1C9EB5.thumb.gif.c37f0def3daffa5c806a8a0396f5cdb8.gif

  • Like 6
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