Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Kasim Awan]

I like the smaller low on gfs 18z. Notice more shortwave activity as a result..

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Another run with a full blown Greenland high (10 in a row!) Talk about consistency and the low is further south and east!

Momentum is certainly building now

Lets hope westerly momentum builds not in our mid latitudes, lets hope its at the lower latitudes to weaken the trade winds!

[Griff]

I take if the big purple blob which is further south on this run goes east and slides down we'll all be a bit happier than if it goes west to North America?  

[tight isobar]

Ooo la la . Great angle of advection -shape.. these are the synoptic we need to be gaining.. as we step forth!!

[iowpompeylee]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow right down to the south. A slight shift south and east. Careful what you wish for folks with that eastwards shift...it will end up in Denmark with the Atlantic high over us! 

I’ve got a feeling there could be a surprise or two over the festive period.!More Ups than downs I feel over the next few days! Beats zonal!!!!! 

[Matt H]

Decent eastward correction when you compare t180 on the 12z to t174 on the 18z, hopefully this trend will continue so we can make a better attempt at drawing in the colder uppers. A step in the right direction though!

12z:

18z:

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

The great thing with some of the charts, like those from the GFS with the Atlantic and Greenland ridging, is that they aren’t terribly far into the dreamland zone. Within the 144 hour(ish), give or take, sort of range

Hit the nail on the head there DRL and the gfs picked it up at 240 hrs + 

it is great watching it unfold

i looked at the gefs stamps for 144 hrs and they where all bang on with with the positioning of the low dropping in from the NW.

Edited December 20, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Fozfoster]

254 members online but still no Mr Murr

[Weathizard]

This run is even better, no risk of a west based -NAO here, stunning alignment

[Mike Poole]

This is a better angle of attack.  Compare T186 with T192 on 12z:

But this is the bit that isn’t nailed, phase 2 re my earlier post, and will take a couple of days at least to work out where the cold we have to work with goes.  

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I like the smaller low on gfs 18z. Notice more shortwave activity as a result..

Spot on with that. Its also heading south east into Europe. All trends wed hoped wed see and what we usually see in this situation 

[iowpompeylee]

1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

254 members online but still no Mr Murr

The only blot.... on another great output we can’t have full model agreement without Mr Murr.... 

[IDO]

This is more like the evolution of the gfs 06z at d8, and for reference that went the following:

We shall see...

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets hope westerly momentum builds not in our mid latitudes, lets hope its at the lower latitudes to weaken the trade winds!

MJO showing signs of being more amplified than RMM plots would have you believe and well get an AAM top up first week in January just in time

[Allseasons-Si]

This is more like it,a lot further SE and a better flow.

 

[Cold Winter]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Spot on with that. Its also heading south east into Europe. All trends wed hoped wed see and what we usually see in this situation 

Are we seeing them too soon though, that’s my concern now!  

[Met4Cast]

I think some need a reminder on what an actual Greenland high looks like, so here;

The 18z is a Greenland ridge at best, but in any case! Very good GFS 18z run, more in-line with the earlier GEFS/EPS and a shift eastwards, as a result we see a colder airflow into the UK. 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Met4Cast

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

I take if the big purple blob which is further south on this run goes east and slides down we'll all be a bit happier than if it goes west to North America?  

Correct pal 

[Griff]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Correct pal 

Well with that heights starting to build towards Newfoundland... 

[swfc]

The only compromise I can see on the 18z gfs is that the movement east has given the PV a chance to re group west of greenland. That said Heighths are still building lower in the Atlantic 

[sheikhy]

Let it freeeeze!!!!!!❄!!!!!stunnings 18z at 210 hours!!

[Kasim Awan]

I think an eventual easterly isn't completely off the cards either... combine continued amplification & a trend for the ridge to collapse SE and you have surface easterly. Albiet, weak and quite temporary, it's fate also dependent on pressure near Svalbard. 

[AmershamMike]

Let’s hope we have less downers on the uppers as things progress!

[Fozfoster]

3 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

The only blot.... on another great output we can’t have full model agreement without Mr Murr.... 

Yes without the Murr it’s still a blur.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Are we seeing them too soon though, that’s my concern now!  

Yeah its all about timing. Its why i didnt mind the runs being too far west today ad we know what usually happens. The Russian high that bluearmy alluded to though should in theory stop this and send it more south at that point