Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Scott Ingham]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Correct.

However, renewed strength in the Russian High could also lead to a link up of heights between N Atlantic and Russia with Scandi = easterly for the UK? Just saying...

Yeah something ive just mused i believe wed be looking at this or another bout of momentum and a griceland ridge to follow

[Man With Beard]

10 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

How much rain do you think is forecast for Cornwall ?

2 to 2 1/2 inches by end of Thursday, but more spread out during the week. That's just ARPEGE though - all models struggle with precipitation quantities so much, I'd have thought anywhere from 1 inch to 4 inches was possible for Cornwall.

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T120, compared with 12z T126:

Similar, but very slightly less amplified and that is maybe not a bad thing.  Thinking eastwards corrections later.

[Ice Day]

49 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Great to see the EPS on board with a prolongment of the cold weather.

Just taken a look at the strat. WOW!!!

A split down to -25ms

Amazing - the PV is absolutely decimated.  Lord alone knows what the results of this would be!?  I would guess, fun and games.

[Kasim Awan]

GFS East by 0.5 miles

In all seriousness, heights a little less low, and a little further east. Good start.

Edited December 20, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T120, compared with 12z T126:

Similar, but very slightly less amplified and that is maybe not a bad thing.  Thinking eastwards corrections later.

Keep an eye on ol' Arctic High, not done with yet  

 

And yes, same trends 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Griff

[Lukesluckybunch]

Liking the look of this 18z the low seems to be tracking more east southeast! Hope I am right

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Amazing - the PV is absolutely decimated.  Lord alone knows what the results of this would be!?  I would guess, fun and games.

Its outrageous i wouldnt even like to guess right now!

[Weathizard]

Seems like a theme but this run looks even MORE amplified  

[iowpompeylee]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T120, compared with 12z T126:

Similar, but very slightly less amplified and that is maybe not a bad thing.  Thinking eastwards corrections later.

Can nearly have a game of spot the difference with those two outputs

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Liking the look of this 18z the low seems to be tracking more east southeast! Hope I am right

Seems lower towards Italy 

[sheikhy]

And boom into greenland!!!!!!and further east by a few miles!!gorgeous stuff!!

[Matt H]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Seems like a theme but this run looks even MORE amplified  

The low is also marginally further east as well so I’m hoping that’ll help us down the line.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Griff said:

 

 

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Seems lower towards Italy 

Basically the ridge seems less West based better!

[Kasim Awan]

Northern Hills getting clobbered now. 

[Skullzrulerz]

We need heights into Greenland 

Now it's oh we need less heights into Greenland ?

Make ya minds up guys?

It's good to see the most models are now on the same pattern for the most part and that is encouraging news! 

[Scott Ingham]

Another run with a full blown Greenland high (10 in a row!) Talk about consistency and the low is further south and east!

Momentum is certainly building now

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, iowpompeylee said:

Can nearly have a game of spot the difference with those two outputs

Isn’t that true?  Maybe something for the newbies on here, that the differences we notice between charts from different runs are often very small and subtle.  It took me a while to grasp that, I’ll be honest!  

[BlueHedgehog074]

The great thing with some of the charts, like those from the GFS with the Atlantic and Greenland ridging, is that they aren’t terribly far into the dreamland zone. Within the 144 hour(ish), give or take, sort of range

Edited December 20, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Tim Bland]

Snow right down to the south. A slight shift south and east. Careful what you wish for folks with that eastwards shift...it will end up in Denmark with the Atlantic high over us! 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

The great thing with some of the charts, like those from the GFS with the Atlantic and Greenland ridging, is that they’re aren’t terribly far into the dreamland zone. Within the 144 hour(ish), give or take, sort of range

Definitely right mate. They in theory start the process at 120 hours. Just brilliant model watching atm

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Snow right down to the south. A slight shift south and east. Careful what you wish for folks with that eastwards shift...it will end up in Denmark with the Atlantic high over us! 

We WILL see snow from this. Like I said ill run through Rotherham naked if not im that confident 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Snow right down to the south. A slight shift south and east. Careful what you wish for folks with that eastwards shift...it will end up in Denmark with the Atlantic high over us! 

Then a potential retrogression towards scandinavia and the low squeezed south and underneath the block? JUICY!

[Battleground Snow]

Nice adjustment east of the high... 

Re the Russian heights, I'd rather they moved away east too. The chances of a link up with Greenland heights would be low and high risk, don't want it sitting in Southern Russia / Ukraine again for weeks blocking cold uppers from reaching our shores

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Definitely right mate. They in theory start the process at 120 hours. Just brilliant model watching atm

Certainly is. Some of the best model watching in a while