Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

and back to gfs 6z

gfs really going for it to Wales today

Edited January 12, 2023 by andymusic

[andymusic]

Wales is all white lol

[andymusic]

Live updates as roads submerged and people urged not to drive as over 20 flood warnings in place - Wales Online

WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UK

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There are also 45 flood alerts in place across Wales warning that flooding is possible.

 

[andymusic]

no cycling on the taff trail today

[Sky Full]

Can’t let the morning go by without mentioning the winds last night - what a noisy few hours we had and couldn’t get to sleep until well after midnight.  At some point in the night a tree came down next to us but luckily didn’t do any damage.  It was dead anyway but unfortunately my satellite dish was fixed to it so I’m going to have to relocate it now.  I can’t believe there’s no other damage in the area judging by the strength of the gusts but there’s nothing being reported locally.  

[Sky Full]

A couple of snow depth charts for next Wednesday…..

ECM                                                            GFS

      
 

It will be interesting to see how close to reality these are or whether it will all melt away before next week…..

Edited January 12, 2023 by Sky Full

[andymusic]

16 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

A couple of snow depth charts for next Wednesday…..

ECM                                                            GFS

      
 

It will be interesting to see how close to reality these are or whether it will all melt away before next week…..

6z going for cold all the way out to a week sunday, so the snow may well last for a good few days

Edited January 12, 2023 by andymusic

[DeepSnow]

38 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Can’t let the morning go by without mentioning the winds last night - what a noisy few hours we had and couldn’t get to sleep until well after midnight.  At some point in the night a tree came down next to us but luckily didn’t do any damage.  It was dead anyway but unfortunately my satellite dish was fixed to it so I’m going to have to relocate it now.  I can’t believe there’s no other damage in the area judging by the strength of the gusts but there’s nothing being reported locally.  

I was surprised by the winds, haven't been on here much or seen the weather on news much last few days so didn't know how windy it was going to be. Im also surprised there hasn't been any damage. 

Im in a a sheltered bowl, around 20m lower than top of my street and surrounding streets so the winds by me are 15-20mph less than the top of my street and rest of Barry. I only recorded a max of 23.9mph yesterday (still, strong enough to blow everything around lol) and again so far today but other stations near me have been recording 45-50mph gusts in Barry, certainly enough to start damaging trees etc I'd have thought.

[Loadsa2000]

had  68.5 km/h 00:21 in old terms 43mph at 20 past 1

Trees behind me rocking

 

[andymusic]

gfs control

[keithlucky]

Let's hope the snow gods are on our side next Tuesday  And God help the snow God's if the snow dare misses East UK!

Edited January 12, 2023 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

32 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Let's hope the snow gods are on our side next Tuesday  And God help the snow God's if the snow dare misses East UK!

lol - if only Wales gets it and the rest of england don't there's gonna be hell to pay lollllllllllllllllllllllllllll!

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

lol - if only Wales gets it and the rest of england don't there's gonna be hell to pay lollllllllllllllllllllllllllll!

A.T.M the track is Wales then SWest   Still a long 4 days to go.looking forward to Sunday fax.

[Coilspring]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

lol - if only Wales gets it and the rest of england don't there's gonna be hell to pay lollllllllllllllllllllllllllll!

I hope so. That lot in the south east are going to have a meltdown. They then may actually realise Wales exists.

[keithlucky]

47 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

I hope so. That lot in the south east are going to have a meltdown. They then may actually realise Wales exists.

Already the members of forum on the east England,  are playing down the snow potential for next week ,calling it a damp squib.The met office are again playing down the cold snap again,they better be careful l.or they may end up with egg on there face like they did before Xmas. Netweather again there forecasters are giving a fair middle ground assessment, than the Liberal met office

[Missdolly]

Mad thread is awful at the moment, I'm not going to bother looking in there anymore lol , anyhow it's looking good for snow potential next week .

[dbaloo]

Got sent the below email in work today. I have cut out all the email addresses but it is from an employee of the met office. Unfortunately I won't say where I work for confidential reasons which I hope you all understand:

Update on the Weather

 

Good Morning 

 

There was plenty of rain around last night with totals of in excess of 50-60mm across the Cambrian Mountains, the Brecon Beacons, south Wales Valleys -  and we saw 90-100mm recorded in some raingauges up near the top of the Rhondda in the 24hrs to 09am this morning. 

For the rest of today we will see more rain waxing and waning across Wales, - generally it won’t be raining as hard as last night  - although rainfall intensities may pick up for a short period of time late morning/early afternoon, before this present weather system clears away.

This run of unsettled, wet and windy weather will continue though - this evening and overnight we will see some more strong, gusty winds developing - especially across the north of Wales - where wind speeds could touch as high as 65-70mph or so across some of the more exposed coastal routes and communities.  These sorts of wind speeds not unusual for this time of year but may be enough to bring down some more trees/branches just about anywhere in Wales - although the greater chances of seeing impacts will be across some of the more exposed parts of Anglesey and Gwynedd where winds likley to be strongest and we have just issued a Yellow warning for strong winds for this area this evening and tonight.   As well as some strong winds tonight - we will also see some more rain in many areas - rainfall amounts not especially large or notable, and will tend to be falling across North Wales and to a lesser extend parts of Mid Wales. 

Friday - Will see some lingering rain across north and mid Wales through the morning, although drier, brighter conditions across South Wales will spread more widely across Wales by the afternoon.  Friday night looks like it will bring another very wet, windy and unpleasant spell of weather to the whole of Wales though.  Rainfall totals looking a bit less than what we saw last night, with the highest amounts likely to be across parts of north Wales.  Nevertheless it will be wet everywhere and so we will have a continuing risk of further flooding especially where things are still exceptionally wet after the weather over the last week.  If you are concerned about flood risk along the rivers then best to have a chat with NRW who are the experts in this area.

The weekend - will be showery - with more spells of strong blustery wind too.  The rainfall totals down a few notches compared with what we’ve just seen though - but nonetheless enough to keep everything very wet on the ground.  It will be getting a bit colder across the weekend though - and some of the showers that fall later in the weekend may bring a little sleet or snow to the mountains, and perhaps some of our highest communities to. 

Next week we have a reasonably good signal now for a spell of colder weather during the first part of the week - not especially cold or snowy - but enough to mean a few night-time/early morning frosts, and perhaps a few sleet/snow showers around as well too.  One advantage of colder weather at this point is that we should see a bit less rain.   However there is also a reasonable prospect of us returning to somewhat milder and potentially wetter conditions again by this time next week. 

 

So in Summary - some very wet conditions out there today - with rain still ongoing for a few hours yet across some of the more sensitive areas.  Met Office Yellow warning for rain remains in place until 5pm today and we have also just issued a 2nd Yellow warning for Strong Winds for parts of north Wales valid from 3pm today until 03am tomorrow morning - details of these warnings are here (correct link this time)  We will see further rain on Friday night and across the weekend - and it’s entirely possible we will issue more warnings for this period as we see more data and continue to consult with our colleagues at NRW.  Next week looks colder for a while - with a taste of some wintry weather for some of us - but let's not get too carried away by the clickbait stories in some parts of the press. 

 

Drop me a line if you want to discuss further

 

[dbaloo]

Plus my neighbours tree gave up the ghost this morning, looks like the bank gave way with the amount of rain we have had. So glad the tree fell the way it did or 3 out the 4 properties may have had a tree through a roof 

Edited January 12, 2023 by dbaloo

[goosey007]

evening all ECM below and GFS mean still has snow potential for next week …. So no reason to be too disappointed we are not seeing the snow depths forecasted yesterday on the op runs up to this afternoons 12zs …..just got to hope something lands favourable for wales ….. happy if south east England misses out
 

Edited January 12, 2023 by goosey007

[andymusic]

snow as early as next monday on gfs 18z now for Wales with more on Tuesday for Southern Wales and more wednesday and more into Thursday lol and the snow hangs around after that too into friday and beyond

cold stays hanging around with snow on the ground well in saturday too

into sunday on this run and finally the milder air starts to melt the snow - so almost a week of cold and snow looks possible - and talk of scandi highs next with the beast which the south easterners always love lol

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by andymusic

[Loadsa2000]

Did anybody watch The Big Snow on channel 5 about winter 81/82.

memories came flooding back. eldest was born a week after the thaw

[andymusic]

10 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Did anybody watch The Big Snow on channel 5 about winter 81/82.

memories came flooding back. eldest was born a week after the thaw

yep was a brill program

[andymusic]

west wales

Edited January 12, 2023 by andymusic

[BlizzardOfoz]

Looking good for our fix.. At lastAll the English biased in the mad thread are whining about time we had a 1978 reapeat. Not with a blizzard but heave precepitation in amongst showers. The nice wet juicy flakes to make a snawbell... You get my jist

[keithlucky]

The cold air digs south earlier than forecasted. Monday looks wintry now with wintry showers pushing in from the North   .Need to keep an eye out from a more organised band of snow Monday night.

Edited January 13, 2023 by keithlucky