Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[mattrout92]

Not much to get excited about from the models this morning. Still think Thursday could be interesting, currently showing a snow to rain event on the GFS, but I don't think the front will move through that quickly... We shall see

[Wosser]

23 hours ago, andymusic said:

AMBER AMBER I WANT A RED WARNING LIKE LAST TIME LOL! - I'M PREPPED WITH ME SNOW SHOVEL - TWO HUGE BAGS OF ROCK SALT TO CLEAR THE PATH TO THE HOUSE AND enough food to last for 2 - 3 weeks if necessary lol!

I don’t think any warnings will be issued 

[freeze for all]

What's happened to the snow guy's?? Seems to have gone very quiet in here regarding it??

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

What's happened to the snow guy's?? Seems to have gone very quiet in here regarding it??

Doesn't look like we'll be getting much if any now.

[Wetterfrosch]

With so many swings back and forth from run to run and consistent discrepancies between the various models it should come as no surprise that it all may end once again in a great disappointment for most of us. At least it caused considerable excitement on here, let alone the MOD thread. Not much hope up here now but some lucky ones in the south might still see something white, even if only for the briefest of spells. Seems SSW's really do play havoc with our weather models and may not have finished yet!

[BlizzardOfoz]

Still all to play for ,never say never .

The cold air ain't even in situ yet and there will be upgrades in force by Tuesday evening onwards .watch this space .

[freeze for all]

15 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Doesn't look like we'll be getting much if any now.

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by freeze for all
So all that ramping over snowmageddon were not worth it then?

[Jayfromcardiff]

38 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

 

Nope, this is why I said days ago that I wasn't getting my hopes up. People were getting too excited over charts that were a week away.

[andymusic]

2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Nope, this is why I said days ago that I wasn't getting my hopes up. People were getting too excited over charts that were a week away.

why the despondency I don't know - we aren't even in the zone yet - snow will come - just be patient!

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, andymusic said:

why the despondency I don't know - we aren't even in the zone yet - snow will come - just be patient!

I'm just being realistic and saying what I've experienced in the past with us being let down when snow was shown a week away.

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'm just being realistic and saying what I've experienced in the past with us being let down when snow was shown a week away.

 AND THEN THE UPGRADES START COMING OUT ALSO LOL

You really all have to have some patience! - good things come to those who wait and have patience!

Edited March 5, 2023 by andymusic

[andymusic]

TREND AT THE END OF THE GFS 12z - ANOTHER MAJOR REVERSAL EASTERLY WOW!!!!!!!!!!!

THE POSSIBILITIES OF FREEZING SNOW AND ICE ETC ARE ENDLESS I FEEL!

METO - Pontypridd snow symbols for Tuesday early morning!

METO

This Evening and Tonight:

Patchy cloud and showers into the evening and overnight, perhaps wintry over high ground. Where the cloud breaks is where temperatures may drop quickly overnight with perhaps a slight frost in any clear spells. Winds remaining light. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Monday:

Patchy cloud and showers, which will turn increasingly wintry, possibly even falling as snow at times over hills later. Turning breezier around coasts where it will feel particularly chilly. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Sunny spells and showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, these more readily falling as snow. Cloudy on Thursday with a risk of snow over high ground. Feeling cold with frosty mornings.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 5 Mar 2023

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by andymusic

[andymusic]

Met office further outlook

Confidence remains low throughout this period. On Friday, very cold conditions are expected across the far north, accompanied by snow showers, although some sunny spells are possible away from any showers. Elsewhere, milder, cloudier conditions are likely, with outbreaks of rain and some stronger winds possible. There is a small chance of more disruptive snowfall, particularly over hills. Into the weekend, milder conditions are expected to spread northeastwards, bringing rain and stronger winds, as well as some snow along the leading edge. Towards the end of the period, this transition is expected to continue, bringing some more unsettled conditions. Periods of snow remain possible, particularly in the far north. Temperatures generally below average, but may gradually turn milder into the end of the period.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 5 Mar 2023

 

[Wosser]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Met office further outlook

Confidence remains low throughout this period. On Friday, very cold conditions are expected across the far north, accompanied by snow showers, although some sunny spells are possible away from any showers. Elsewhere, milder, cloudier conditions are likely, with outbreaks of rain and some stronger winds possible. There is a small chance of more disruptive snowfall, particularly over hills. Into the weekend, milder conditions are expected to spread northeastwards, bringing rain and stronger winds, as well as some snow along the leading edge. Towards the end of the period, this transition is expected to continue, bringing some more unsettled conditions. Periods of snow remain possible, particularly in the far north. Temperatures generally below average, but may gradually turn milder into the end of the period.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 5 Mar 2023

 

But this just refers to the north ?

[snefnug]

Quick!  Grab your sledges and come on over!  That last little bit of precipitation had a teensy bit of sleepiness in it.  AND SO IT BEGINS!!!!!! (some channelling of @andymusic’s snowmojo there)

Edited March 5, 2023 by snefnug

[keithlucky]

Still gfs showing snow moving south Tuesday across Wales, Cannot passed that,Models have gone berserk!

[mattrout92]

ECM showing light/moderate snow on and off from Wednesday morning through to Thursday Lunchtime. Big improvement!

[WINTRY WALES]

At the moment Can’t see much settling snow other than the brecons..::anyone think we may get changes in the models output?

[andymusic]

23 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

At the moment Can’t see much settling snow other than the brecons..::anyone think we may get changes in the models output?

see the bigger picture - let it snow let it snow let it snow

[Welsh_Weather]

11 hours ago, andymusic said:

 AND THEN THE UPGRADES START COMING OUT ALSO LOL

You really all have to have some patience! - good things come to those who wait and have patience!

Please stop Andy, we all love your enthusiasm but this is getting tiresome now. The big writing and the Daily Express type posts are not helping. What upgrades keep coming? The chart you posted there doesn’t have any snow for South Wales and only a dusting for Mid and North Wales. There’s nothing wrong with a little ramping but some people come here for some genuine info and what you are providing is complete nonsense. Your posts were deleted in the model thread for good reason because you were telling people to stock up food for 3 weeks! Seriously?? Also, patience isn’t what we need when wanting snow at this time of year, it’s pretty much now or moving on to next winter. We might very well get some snow this week, a few flakes/dusting/decent covering for a day or two but definitely not worthy of clearing the supermarket shelves at a time where some supplies are already limited. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Welsh_Weather

[WINTRY WALES]

1 hour ago, Welsh_Weather said:

Please stop Andy, we all love your enthusiasm but this is getting tiresome now. The big writing and the Daily Express type posts are not helping. What upgrades keep coming? The chart you posted there doesn’t have any snow for South Wales and only a dusting for Mid and North Wales. There’s nothing wrong with a little ramping but some people come here for some genuine info and what you are providing is complete nonsense. Your posts were deleted in the model thread for good reason because you were telling people to stock up food for 3 weeks! Seriously?? Also, patience isn’t what we need when wanting snow at this time of year, it’s pretty much now or moving on to next winter. We might very well get some snow this week, a few flakes/dusting/decent covering for a day or two but definitely not worthy of clearing the supermarket shelves at a time where some supplies are already limited. 

Here Here! Good to have a bit of enthusiasm but not crazy lies that fool people. Unfortunately, as nearly always, It doesnt look great for us Welsh (Especially southerners) but you never know we could be in for a small window of surprise but no need to go stock piling food

[keithlucky]

Cold front pushes down from the Noth today, with rain turning to Snow as much colder air digs in behind the front,as the front reaches Cornwall it stalls and tries to pushes back north could give a dusting in SWales.

Edited March 6, 2023 by keithlucky

[Pembroke Dangler]

This looks a bit more promising for Wednesday

[PompeyFC]

The positioning and angle of the approaching low will be key. Wont really know till Tuesday night 

[keithlucky]

I don't think LP has enough strength to bulldoze it way across way good chance of snow.Thursday heavy snow turning to rain  but thats a long way off.