North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[raul_sbd]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Will be all snow at the coast from midnight Saturday DP’s are below freezing throughout. May have trouble settling Saturday midday but should be alright on  the night.

What about more inland areas ie Sth Mcr area? What are your thoughts Chris?

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

What about more inland areas ie Sth Mcr area? What are your thoughts Chris?

All falling snow from Friday afternoon settling from Friday night as long as you get precip you should have accumulation.

Minimum about -0.5°C Friday night maximum of about 1.5°C Saturday. DP below 0 from Friday afternoon.

[Backtrack]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wow Sunday is a snow day according to GFS. Would be very good indeed. WRF just goes out to 6 am Sunday so will have to wait till this evening. Looks like we’re in for a very snowy weekend.

Temps aren’t too appealing for it sticking around long though are they. Reaching 4C Saturday and same Sunday. Any snow that makes it to Monday wilL be gone with a high of 5C. Shame we can’t have the daytime maxes as low as the last cold spell 

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Will be all snow at the coast from midnight Saturday DP’s are below freezing throughout. May have trouble settling Saturday midday but should be alright on  the night.

My post earlier sounds about right then, good stuff mate.

Yes Sunday looks good too.

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Temps aren’t too appealing for it sticking around long though are they. Reaching 4C Saturday and same Sunday. Any snow that makes it to Monday wilL be gone with a high of 5C. Shame we can’t have the daytime maxes as low as the last cold spell 

 

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Temps aren’t too appealing for it sticking around long though are they. Reaching 4C Saturday and same Sunday. Any snow that makes it to Monday wilL be gone with a high of 5C. Shame we can’t have the daytime maxes as low as the last cold spell 

It won’t be like that in reality though more like 2°C Saturday and if under  cloud all day Sunday more like 0.5°C.

[raul_sbd]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

All falling snow from Friday afternoon settling from Friday night as long as you get precip you should have accumulation.

Minimum about -0.5°C Friday night maximum of about 1.5°C Saturday. DP below 0 from Friday afternoon.

That’s very accurate!! Thank you sir!!

[Chris.R]

Looking at tomorrow evening; there is going to be a very cold surface layer with a slightly warmer Maritime inversion riding over the top for the first 20 miles inland from the coast.

As the  sun sets tomorrow temperatures should drop Rapidly below freezing at the surface whilst remaining above freezing in the inversion about 100–200 m. So there will be lots of ice pellets at first Friday evening before the inversion dissipates as the colder air comes in plus surface wins veer Northerly and fall light.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Chris.R

[Backtrack]

14 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 

It won’t be like that in reality though more like 2°C Saturday and if under  cloud all day Sunday more like 0.5°C.

I can’t see temps being like that, they’re never like that with a westerly element to the wind. Perhaps in any showers, but once they move on, the modification process will begin again. 
 

As I said yesterday, I think it’ll be hailstone central west of Manchester. 

[Had Worse]

32 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Wow Sunday is a snow day according to GFS. Would be very good indeed. WRF just goes out to 6 am Sunday so will have to wait till this evening. Looks like we’re in for a very snowy weekend.

You and Kasim have been spot on so far, obviously last night caught everyone by surprise to a certain extent. 

Home schooling again so limited time away to look at anything else.

[Chris.R]

14 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

I can’t see temps being like that, they’re never like that with a westerly element to the wind. Perhaps in any showers, but once they move on, the modification process will begin again. 
 

As I said yesterday, I think it’ll be hailstone central west of Manchester. 

 

On Saturday winds will be light NNW there will be a cold surface layer and DP will be below zero. Snow is always reluctant to melt with a negative DP, in fact the process of melting actually cools the air around it. Showers will be alternating snow/graupel up to 5 miles from the coast but no further. 
Sunday wind is offshore SE backing E so no problems there.
have a look at 30th January 2019 as a less potent example.

[SnowWatcher2]

Charts Looking good for early Sat, nice few snow showers ...  

Great outlook for next few days, Hope Chris.R is right about the lightning also as love a good Thunderstorm, especially when snow is involved as love the muffled sound it produces.

 

[Wardlegacy]

We’ve had a few flakes of snow in the wind this afternoon, nothing too much. Just under 5” of snow last night at the top of the village think we were in a good spot.

still white over but slowly thawing .

[Joe Bloggs]

I think yesterday/last night will be etched in the memory for quite some time to come.

Not just the incessant rain, but the sudden drop in temperature and the sudden transition from heavy rain to heavy snow from west to east across the NW. A fascinating weather event.

As it turns out, Didsbury and Northenden was a very, very close call. Despite Manchester being a wet city, I’ve never in my 34 years of living heard of a major River Mersey flood event in south Manchester. Thankfully it didn’t happen last night but it came extremely, extremely close. Makes me wonder if the few hours of heavy snow stalled a lot of the runoff temporarily and prevented a catastrophic flood event. 

What a night

[Miamay]

Heavy shiwers this morning and the wind is quite chilly. Has brightened up now to a blue sky and sunshine. I hope Day10 and ChrisR you are right about the weekend. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Looking at tomorrow evening; there is going to be a very cold surface layer with a slightly warmer Maritime inversion riding over the top for the first 20 miles inland from the coast.

As the  sun sets tomorrow temperatures should drop Rapidly below freezing at the surface whilst remaining above freezing in the inversion about 100–200 m. So there will be lots of ice pellets at first Friday evening before the inversion dissipates as the colder air comes in plus surface wins veer Northerly and fall light.

Good forecasting predictions. When you talk about east and west of M6, I assume you mean only as far as junction 36, after this you hit high ground quite quickly on both sides.. 

[weatherobsuk]

Front of houses collapse into street after sinkhole appears... hours after car 'swallowed' - LIVE updates - Manchester Evening News

WWW.MANCHESTEREVENINGNEWS.CO.UK

---

Emergency services are at the scene in Abbey Hey

 

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Good forecasting predictions. When you talk about east and west of M6, I assume you mean only as far as junction 36, after this you hit high ground quite quickly on both sides.. 

Yep. I’m not really familiar with local conditions /Microclimates in Cumbria so my forecasts are mainly focused on the south of the region where I have lived all my life.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Yep. I’m not really familiar with local conditions /Microclimates in Cumbria so my forecasts are mainly focused on the south of the region where I have lived all my life.

Yes, Cumbria has it's own unique microclimate. Conditions are often very different once you hit the border and more so away from Morecambe Bay. There are probably about 6 different climates in the County:

Coastal including lowland inland parts of the south of the County near Morecambe Bay

North lower ground including Carlisle 

Lakes - sub areas north and south of the Dunmail and Shap line

Eden Valley and Howgills

Pennine 

Border land near Kielder

 

 

[More Runs Needed]

31 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I think yesterday/last night will be etched in the memory for quite some time to come.

Not just the incessant rain, but the sudden drop in temperature and the sudden transition from heavy rain to heavy snow from west to east across the NW. A fascinating weather event.

As it turns out, Didsbury and Northenden was a very, very close call. Despite Manchester being a wet city, I’ve never in my 34 years of living heard of a major River Mersey flood event in south Manchester. Thankfully it didn’t happen last night but it came extremely, extremely close. Makes me wonder if the few hours of heavy snow stalled a lot of the runoff temporarily and prevented a catastrophic flood event. 

What a night

The flood gates did their job really well

[Cheshire Freeze]

41 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I think yesterday/last night will be etched in the memory for quite some time to come.

Not just the incessant rain, but the sudden drop in temperature and the sudden transition from heavy rain to heavy snow from west to east across the NW. A fascinating weather event.

As it turns out, Didsbury and Northenden was a very, very close call. Despite Manchester being a wet city, I’ve never in my 34 years of living heard of a major River Mersey flood event in south Manchester. Thankfully it didn’t happen last night but it came extremely, extremely close. Makes me wonder if the few hours of heavy snow stalled a lot of the runoff temporarily and prevented a catastrophic flood event. 

What a night

Yes an insane event and one so close to tragedy. One of the most bizarre weather events I've ever witnessed.

As a weather enthusiast it was brilliant.

[Day 10]

32 minutes ago, Miamay said:

Heavy shiwers this morning and the wind is quite chilly. Has brightened up now to a blue sky and sunshine. I hope Day10 and ChrisR you are right about the weekend. 

It's the best conditions conducive to snow we've had all Winter so far, so fingers & toes crossed.

[Slidergate '17]

One thing I do fear about Sunday is that front having a more southerly track than some models show, could still miss the NW completely..

[Dan B]

5ºC and clearing skies here now

 

Wind seems to be calming off too which is good  

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Miamay said:

Heavy shiwers this morning and the wind is quite chilly. Has brightened up now to a blue sky and sunshine. I hope Day10 and ChrisR you are right about the weekend. 

Going to be difficult if the winds comes in off the sea unfortunately for us coastal areas. However if at any time the winds drop completely or go off shore, then uppers of - 7 should produce snow aslong as the PPN is there. 

It will be interesting too see the slow transition to colder air in the next few days. 

 

[russwirral]

32 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Going to be difficult if the winds comes in off the sea unfortunately for us coastal areas. However if at any time the winds drop completely or go off shore, then uppers of - 7 should produce snow aslong as the PPN is there. 

It will be interesting too see the slow transition to colder air in the next few days. 

 

its very rare in Wirral when we get a North westerly that we actually see snow.  its most likely going to be Graupal.  Saying that - usually if a beefier shower turns up - we might be in look as the air modifys during the shower.  

Alot of people talk of how lucky we are to be in the north west with its north west and moisture laden winds in the winter.. but often they are a curse that offers nothing more than icey windows on the car and icy roads.  Chester and further in land usually get the heavy snow we are expect.

 

Fingers crossed for something a bit different this time, but its doubtful.  I think snow from a northwesterly is perhaps a 1 in 15 occurances event in my experience.