North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Spah1]

18 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

A little teaser.

Big upgrade from WRF for Sunday from what it was showing  last night. Wow.

What’s the difference between the WRF 0.05 and the 2km ? 

[Weather-history]

Still got reminants of Wednesday's night snow in the garden 

[Spah1]

The low on Sunday seems to go through Wales, through the Midlands then exit out of Lincolnshire. I’ll be surprised to see anything this far up. 

[PennineMark]

8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Still got reminants of Wednesday's night snow in the garden 

Another example WH of lower levels of GM doing well. Here at 200m there is no snow at all and I'd have to walk about a mile north to find it at at least 300m and possibly 350m asl. 

[Spah1]

 

[severe snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

The low on Sunday seems to go through Wales, through the Midlands then exit out of Lincolnshire. I’ll be surprised to see anything this far up. 

It may well change by then, but that's not a bad rough track surely? Snow on the Northern flank. 

[chris78]

36 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Yes a very strong snow signal from Euro4 (accumulating). Always a good sign. 
 
Looking from frame to frame it appears to be picking up on a streamer sinking south? 
 

Always take note when Euro 4 shows darker pinks. 

Preston pretty much missing out again.

[Chris.R]

Right guys.

Today and tomorrow 

My overall thoughts from yesterday are still valid nothing much has changed except a few small details.

those who have seen snow at this point will continue to see snow and those who have seen sleet graupel and ice pellets will continue to do so throughout today.

The arrival of the cold air (T850’s below -6) has been delayed by 3–6 hours and looks like coming in about Saturday midnight. Snow line should start to lower from around 21:00 and should reach the coast by 3–5 am. If West of M6 I recommend people get some sleep and set an alarm for 2–3 am; that’s what I’m doing anyway. 

If East of M6 the fun will already be beginning before midnight.

Coldest T850’s now look like being around -7.8 rather than -8.2 but that won’t make any difference at all.

Coldest air will be here in the afternoon and evening tomorrow.

 

during tomorrow afternoon surface temperatures may reach 2–3°C in places on low ground due to solar input however with DP‘s being still below 0 precip should still fall as snow and existing snow, should not be degraded to a great extent. This is due to negative DP/wetbulb temps and the endothermic  cooling effect of melting and evaporation processes.
during tomorrow evening temps will fall away rapidly especially where there is snow cover; as winds begin to back offshore ahead of Sunday’s low.

[Wardlegacy]

16 minutes ago, PennineMark said:

Another example WH of lower levels of GM doing well. Here at 200m there is no snow at all and I'd have to walk about a mile north to find it at at least 300m and possibly 350m asl. 

I’m surprised by that! We still have about 60% cover here 

[Chris.R]

32 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

What’s the difference between the WRF 0.05 and the 2km ? 

0.05° is about 5 km high by 3.5 km wide Grid squares.

[Joe Bloggs]

The MetO app is showing an unusually high number of snow symbols for this weekend.

Rather than take these as gospel we can assume the general signal is quite strong. 

[Chris.R]

The WRF 2 km 00Z is a big upgrade for Sunday’s low. It shows precipitation with rates up to 4 mm/h and  lasting for around 7 hours from 12:00–19:00. Precip just about makes it to Bacup but the South and West of the region would do very well. 

Surface wins perform a classic cyclonic loop SSE > SE > ESE > E > ENE > NE > N > NNW.

Nothing marginal at all freezing level remains below 150 m all day and drops to the surface during precip. If this track remains more or less the same Sunday is going to be a very good snow day. Let’s see what the 6Z shows.

PS: GFS is now showing Tuesdays front starting as snow for more of the region although this keeps changing.

[iand61]

11 hours ago, Had Worse said:

Shocked Result Liverpool 0-1 Burnley

Just the pickup I needed after feeling crap all day.

Feel even worse this morning and half expecting my test result to come back positive but at least the mighty Clarets have put a bit of a spring back in my step.

[Joe Bloggs]

9 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

The WRF 2 km 00Z is a big upgrade for Sunday’s low. It shows precipitation with rates up to 4 mm/h and  lasting for around 7 hours from 12:00–19:00. Precip just about makes it to Bacup but the South and West of the region would do very well. 

Surface wins perform a classic cyclonic loop SSE > SE > ESE > E > ENE > NE > N > NNW.

Nothing marginal at all freezing level remains below 150 m all day and drops to the surface during precip. If this track remains more or less the same Sunday is going to be a very good snow day. Let’s see what the 6Z shows.

PS: GFS is now showing Tuesdays front starting as snow for more of the region although this keeps changing.

Dare I use those swear words “snow shadow” 

[Day 10]

Saturday is looking good especially the south of the region, snow showers on & off most of the day til about 4/5pm.

Then hints of the system @Chris.R mentions for Sunday just showing up over Ireland.

COME ON SNOW GODS, YOU HAVE ME FULLY INTERESTED & EXCITED THIS TIME!

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Day 10

[SP1986]

7 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Dare I use those swear words “snow shadow” 

Banned!

[severe snowstorm]

12 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Just the pickup I needed after feeling crap all day.

Feel even worse this morning and half expecting my test result to come back positive but at least the mighty Clarets have put a bit of a spring back in my step.

As an Everton fan, I take no joy in that result at all......honest. 

Fingers crossed you get a negative test.

 

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

Banned!

Hahahahhahaa.

My least two favourite words. “Southeasterly wind” .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Dexter said:

As an Everton fan, I take no joy in that result at all......honest. 

Fingers crossed you get a negative test.

 

or as a United hater, their title now

[SP1986]

Just now, Dexter said:

As an Everton fan, I take no joy in that result at all......honest. 

Fingers crossed you get a negative test.

 

As a fellow Everton fan I echo your sentiments I'm devastated.

[severe snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Dare I use those swear words “snow shadow” 

Yep, the dreaded SE flow...

[SP1986]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Hahahahhahaa.

My least two favourite words. “Southeasterly wind” .

Yes I can't see it being that productive in the east of the region but then it may not even make it up as far north as our region .. we will see!

Edited January 22, 2021 by SP1986

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, Dexter said:

As an Everton fan, I take no joy in that result at all......honest. 

Fingers crossed you get a negative test.

 

 

4 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

As a fellow Everton fan I echo your sentiments I'm devastated.

Didn't realise you two where blues, brilliant I like you even more now! There seems to be quite a few on here.

Could be above them next week.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Day 10

[Day 10]

The fax for Sat looks rather troughy (is that a word?) More organised bands of snow to swing across us all?

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

 

Didn't realise you two where blues, brilliant I like you even more now! There's seems to be quite a few on here.

Could be above them next week.

Excellent! In the mean time a cup win against SW on Sunday will be nice.. as long as it doesn't get snowed off! (Not that it will with undersoil heating)

PS a small rain shower going through.. maybe there's a little streamer setting up