North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Spah1]

Sunday’s low is nowhere near us! 

[WillinGlossop]

3c heavier Graupel shower at home now 

[SnowWatcher2]

12 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Sunday’s low is nowhere near us! 

True, hopefully it will correct further.. if you  compare these charts below.. current update pushing it further North - just depends how far it makes it. 

[Day 10]

Just now, SnowWatcher2 said:

True, hopefully it will correct further.. if you  compare these charts below.. current update pushing it further North - just depends how far it makes it. 

Still time, we are long overdue a northward correction.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

True, hopefully it will correct further.. if you  compare these charts below.. current update pushing it further North - just depends how far it makes it. 

Massive move towards ecm there!!!!

[Dan B]

43 minutes ago, Snow free zone said:

Hail shower just passed through here. Bit of a covering on the grass. 

 

Where abouts? None here for a good hour or so now in Walton le Dale

[damianslaw]

As often the case in NW airstreams, lots of small shortlived convective showers popping up like popcorn, but nothing long lasting and at this time of year need more instability for heavy ones.

Current temp 3.9 degrees, just rain so far, but temps will drop this afternoon so every chance something snowier through evening.

Edited January 22, 2021 by damianslaw

[Joe Bloggs]

Still a fairly convincing signal for a streamer on the 06z EURO4. Precipitation distribution and timing remind me of 30th Jan 2019. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Joe Bloggs

[SP1986]

55 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I will turn it on in June to confuse the hell out of everybody.

Put it on a three month timer.. then you can confuse the hell out of everyone, including yourself

Edited January 22, 2021 by SP1986

[Day 10]

Still a real mixed bag of solutions for Sunday.

[Day 10]

Saturday's updated fax looks even better.

[Weather-history]

44 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Sunday’s low is nowhere near us! 

Can we even rely on this? Two weeks ago, they did a broadcast and were out with the precipitation forecast that same day! That was when parts of Yorkshire were getting buried with snow and they forecast the whole precipitation area to sink southwards instead it died out over the same area

[More Runs Needed]

Hoping GFS is right for once with Sundays low

[Dan B]

Just seen this on The Tube

 

Looks like we could be in for some snow tomorrow fingers crossed. Hope it pans out dry enough that it settles for a change  

 

[Geordiesnow]

24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Can we even rely on this? Two weeks ago, they did a broadcast and were out with the precipitation forecast that same day! That was when parts of Yorkshire were getting buried with snow and they forecast the whole precipitation area to sink southwards instead it died out over the same area

Not at all, not in situations like this where at the end of the day, the fancy graphics can say what they want but it's the radar which is the true story. So many kinks in the isobars for sunday, it's going to be difficult to pinpoint the details.

Anyways look like Saturday will be the main day for the chance of sunshine and snow showers, too marginal for coastal areas, we do need uppers of -8 and below for coastal areas to benefit but with a warming world, that is going to be harder to achieve.

[SP1986]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Not at all, not in situations like this where at the end of the day, the fancy graphics can say what they want but it's the radar which is the true story. So many kinks in the isobars for sunday, it's going to be difficult to pinpoint the details.

Anyways look like Saturday will be the main day for the chance of sunshine and snow showers, too marginal for coastal areas, we do need uppers of -8 and below for coastal areas to benefit but with a warming world, that is going to be harder to achieve.

Indeed, looking at the pressure setup today, it's rather eye opening that temperatures have reached average! Though to be fair there has been a lot of sunshine although that's starting to disappear now with increasing cloud from showers either side of here.

[Miamay]

Sun shining and a sleety shower

[Geordiesnow]

11 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Indeed, looking at the pressure setup today, it's rather eye opening that temperatures have reached average! Though to be fair there has been a lot of sunshine although that's starting to disappear now with increasing cloud from showers either side of here.

Lack of showers, wind off the sea and air not overly cold is contributing to that. The air will get a little colder tomorrow so temperatures should be lower, indication is there should be more shower activity tomorrow. Cant wait too see those popcorn showers appearing!

[SnowWatcher2]

Nice update  ...

[damianslaw]

28 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Lack of showers, wind off the sea and air not overly cold is contributing to that. The air will get a little colder tomorrow so temperatures should be lower, indication is there should be more shower activity tomorrow. Cant wait too see those popcorn showers appearing!

Temps have maxed out at 4 degrees here, a little below average for mid to late Jan, roughly about 4.5 degrees, only slightly. NW airstreams tend to bring average maxima during November to April, then below May to October, notably so in high summer.

[Geordiesnow]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Temps have maxed out at 4 degrees here, a little below average for mid to late Jan, roughly about 4.5 degrees, only slightly. NW airstreams tend to bring average maxima during November to April, then below May to October, notably so in high summer.

Your location is not by the sea though, temperatures has been around 6 to 7 degrees near the coast. 

Could be a chilly night tonight with winds falling light, probably mean wont be much shower activity either in Cumbria/north lancashire either.

[Day 10]

Latest GFS for Sun

Any update @Chris.R on WTF! lol

Edited January 22, 2021 by Day 10

[More Runs Needed]

GFS 12z still showing that snow in the south of our region

[More Runs Needed]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Latest GFS for Sun

The differences between that and the Met Office forecast video on YouTube is crazy

[Day 10]

Just now, Dkeane3 said:

The differences between that and the Met Office forecast video on YouTube is crazy

Ridiculous isn't it, very intrigued what all others update like later.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Day 10