North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Iceaxecrampon]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's all a bit tepid. We've had great synoptics but due to a lack of deep cold we are not under 10cm+ of snow. 

I'm not going to post this in the model thread but I can see where we are headed now.  The extended EC ensembles and GEFS have had me concerned for a while now and tonight's EC run confirms it in my eyes. We'll be in a mean W'ly flow by mid Jan. 

You can mark this post too and quote me at the time.

Old Father Time will tell.

As ever.

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's all a bit tepid. We've had great synoptics but due to a lack of deep cold we are not under 10cm+ of snow. 

I'm not going to post this in the model thread but I can see where we are headed now.  The extended EC ensembles and GEFS have had me concerned for a while now and tonight's EC run confirms it in my eyes. We'll be in a mean W'ly flow by mid Jan. 

You can mark this post too and quote me at the time.

Unfortunately set ups like this will only increase with climate change, we really do struggle to build cold up on our part of the hemisphere these days.

That said, the ECM is better for the easterly, only problem seems to me is thicknesses and pressure is higher when the coldest uppers come so how much PPN there be by then will be the question.

[cheshire snow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I'm not in a good mood at all tonight, I can see this all going wrong.

But who knows.

Chino just posted in the model thread have read put you in a better mood

HNY mate 

C.S

[Cheshire Freeze]

All I'd like is a couple of inches of snow I can get out in and that doesn't melt within 12 hours. I'd be more than happy with that. It's all I ask.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll just add, I've not seen 5cm or more accumulated since 2013...yes 2013

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just been outside and its sooo slippy, never seen it like that before, its like an ice rink!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I'll just add, I've not seen 5cm or more accumulated since 2013...yes 2013

Any consolation.

Neither have we!

And I used to be up to the knees in the stuff.

[Geordiesnow]

Ooo the lightest of light snow has started here, shame the system did not had more oomph to it.

[frosty ground]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's all a bit tepid. We've had great synoptics but due to a lack of deep cold we are not under 10cm+ of snow. 

I'm not going to post this in the model thread but I can see where we are headed now.  The extended EC ensembles and GEFS have had me concerned for a while now and tonight's EC run confirms it in my eyes. We'll be in a mean W'ly flow by mid Jan. 

You can mark this post too and quote me at the time.

Another guess but one that goes against your earlier guess 

[Backtrack]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm not in a good mood at all tonight, I can see this all going wrong.

But who knows.

Doesn’t matter anyway. Could have -125 uppers, a surface temp of -17 and a stalled polar low overhead, and it would still find a way to rain 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Another guess but one that goes against your earlier guess 

Not a guess at all. 

It's a call on balance. As you can see, the potential that I spoke of months ago is there...we're in the period now with the best synoptics we've seen for a long while. However, we're seeing the extended ensembles point mild as they have been for a few days. We've also seen an EC op and various ensemble members showing how this warming up could feasibly be achieved.

To say I'm guessing is quite the insult.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

Doesn’t matter anyway. Could have -125 uppers, a surface temp of -17 and a stalled polar low overhead, and it would still find a way to rain 

Ain't that the truth.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

4 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Doesn’t matter anyway. Could have -125 uppers, a surface temp of -17 and a stalled polar low overhead, and it would still find a way to rain 

Soo true

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Ain't that the truth.

If we were not in tier 4 I would pick you up and drive you up the highest mountain and let you have an hour of fun in waist deep snow

Chin up mate what will be will be

C.S

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

If we were not in tier 4 I would pick you up and drive you up the highest mountain and let you have an hour of fun in waist deep snow

Chin up mate what will be will be

C.S

Seriously though buddy I'm at the end of my tether. Just want to walk through crunchy snow.

[cheshire snow]

6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Doesn’t matter anyway. Could have -125 uppers, a surface temp of -17 and a stalled polar low overhead, and it would still find a way to rain 

-125 uppers

Seriously what is the highest 850 temperature recorded?

C.S

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Seriously though buddy I'm at the end of my tether. Just want to walk through crunchy snow.

do you a deal if you don't see 5cm of snow come end of Feb I will pay for a year radar subscription on here for you.

C.S

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

do you a deal if you don't see 5cm of snow come end of Feb I will pay for a year radar subscription on here for you.

C.S

If I do I'll PayPal you a tenner. Deal?

[Joe Bloggs]

Well it has been a bloody brilliant spell here. I don’t feel guilty gloating as normally it’s sh*t here compared to other parts of the country, or indeed other parts of the NW/Pennines. 

Dont get me wrong , it hasn’t been perfect as there has been thawing during the day, but to have three mornings in a week with three separate snow events must be pretty rare for this neck of the woods. 
 

Sadly this spell was never primed to deliver for the NW coast - we need proper Arctic air for that which this really isn’t. Fingers crossed this changes before long. 
 

Happy New Year to all on NetWeather especially those in this thread. :-) 

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Seriously though buddy I'm at the end of my tether. Just want to walk through crunchy snow.

Kirkstone - if it wasn't for all these restrictions it's easy to get there.

Mind you when your nearing the end of a Winter 12 miler you've done more than enough crunching.

[cheshire snow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

If I do I'll PayPal you a tenner. Deal?

Deal.

Just incase let me know your address just incase I need to get hold of some artificial snow and a snow blower.

C.S

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Deal.

Just incase let me know your address just incase I need to get hold of some artificial snow and a snow blower.

C.S

[frosty ground]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not a guess at all. 

It's a call on balance. As you can see, the potential that I spoke of months ago is there...we're in the period now with the best synoptics we've seen for a long while. However, we're seeing the extended ensembles point mild as they have been for a few days. We've also seen an EC op and various ensemble members showing how this warming up could feasibly be achieved.

To say I'm guessing is quite the insult.

Please it’s an insult to say you know the weather months in advance and says it’s not a guess 

at least now, you can claim you were right either way

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Please it’s an insult to say you know the weather months in advance and says it’s not a guess 

at least now, you can claim you were right either way

Of course you can forecast probabilities months in advance. It's actually not as hard as you think to forecast the macro scale. Of course, when you boil this down to a smaller area (micro level) you cannot forecast months in advance. 

The micro scale is not what seasonal forecasting is all about though.

Look at now- the macro scale is really quite good...and yes this was pinpointed months ago with the general precursor SSW set up. It was glaringly obvious in the output in October! However, even with this great set up, it may not truly deliver for us here on a micro scale.

Edited December 31, 2020 by CreweCold

[AderynCoch]

35 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All I'd like is a couple of inches of snow I can get out in and that doesn't melt within 12 hours. I'd be more than happy with that. It's all I ask.

If it makes you feel any better we can't even get that in Slovakia at the moment never mind where you are. In fact, it's possible you've had more snow than me this December. I've seen one morning with barely a centimetre of snow, gone by evening, and a bit of wet falling snow in the early hours of Boxing Day.

Spending Christmas alone is pants but I at least had the consolation of staying in a more snowy location - or so I thought! That festering low pressure over Western Europe is killing chances for cold here - if everything was just a bit further east we would have been in business.

I'd wish everyone a happy 2021 but it's probably going to be crap anyway.