North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I wouldn’t worry about those charts for convective showers , fairly useless. As a general rule though east of the M6 is most favoured in that setup. 

Precisely. 

[dodge]

The model thread is going through it's pages like Usain Bolt chasing down a gold medal… anybody would think there was an easterly on the way. 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, dodge said:

The model thread is going through it's pages like Usain Bolt chasing down a gold medal… anybody would think there was an easterly on the way. 

What’s the betting that the SE is going to get buried.

[PennineMark]

If we get a 2018 type easterly again plus Tuesdays potential happens it should be a facinating 10 days or so. In 2018 the way the wind shaped and carved the powder snow was incredible. 

[SnowWatcher2]

The media making a killing of this as usual

Edited January 29, 2021 by SnowWatcher2

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

2 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:

The media making a killing of this as usual

Thats not the media. Its the daily fakexpress!

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst I think the chances of a cold easterly is there, i don't see a BFTE appearing yet and nor do I see a overly convective easterly. Thicknesses and to a lesser extent pressure need to be lower to get those deep convective showers like we did in 2018. Plus if low pressure is close by, there will be alot of thick cloud around which limits convective potential although if the air is cold enough could bring more prolonged snow.

The chart Spah posted shows there is PPN but not any great intensity, remember cold uppers and warm seas does not always equal lots of PPN. 

[WillinGlossop]

The drifting powder in 2018 was amazing If I remember correctly we had 60-70 mph winds one night and snow came through front door and under garage door (had a 3 foot drift inside the garage ) 

[Joe Bloggs]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Whilst I think the chances of a cold easterly is there, i don't see a BFTE appearing yet and nor do I see a overly convective easterly. Thicknesses and to a lesser extent pressure need to be lower to get those deep convective showers like we did in 2018. Plus if low pressure is close by, there will be alot of thick cloud around which limits convective potential although if the air is cold enough could bring more prolonged snow.

The chart Spah posted shows there is PPN but not any great intensity, remember cold uppers and warm seas does not always equal lots of PPN. 

True, it could be a dry easterly, but with a strong pressure gradient I’d suggest that’s relatively unlikely. A dry easterly far more likely if pressure is higher with anticyclonic conditions across northern UK. 

I maintain that for convective showers you can bin those long range precipitation charts - absolutely useless. 

[WillinGlossop]

Peak District update of interest but still uncertainty... will get excited if still predicting snow Monday evenings update 

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Peak District update of interest but still uncertainty... will get excited if still predicting snow Monday evenings update 

I think this somes it up.

[Joe Bloggs]

12z ECM brings snow to most of the NW early Tuesday but it moves through relatively quickly. 

[Day 10]

Several hours of heavy snow Tues before turning back to rain, however we are at about t84 now so the timing isn't as far out. Maybe a couple of small adjustments south and we could have our stalling heavy snow front as the ICON has been showing.

[Chris.R]

@Backtrack How much snow did you get from the 2018 beast? Interested what I might get now I’m living here. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Chris.R

[chicken soup]

Howls of despair emanating from the mod thread.. ECM has cancelled the easterly. 

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Howls of despair emanating from the mod thread.. ECM has cancelled the easterly. 

 

[iand61]

If the latest run of charts are to be believed then it looks like next weeks snow and bitter cold is starting to be watered down with milder westerly’s following next weeks snow.

Hopefully it’s not the case and probably the excitement will be back again in the morning but the mood in the Mad thread is not good at the moment.

[Had Worse]

Its turning into the Moan of Despair thread rather than MODels. 

[Spah1]

10 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Howls of despair emanating from the mod thread.. ECM has cancelled the easterly. 

I know, hilarious. 

[Spah1]

Just look at UKMO 144hrs. 
 

Won’t be wrong. 

[severe snowstorm]

Updated Liverpool Airport TAF still toying with the possibility of snow tomorrow, between 07:00 and 13:00

Edited January 29, 2021 by Dexter

[Had Worse]

Anyone run the radar in animation mode.

 

It seems strange the showers heading SW as the Blob encroaches from the SW

[Cheshire Freeze]

They will never learn in the MOD thread. I warned them yesterday it was a flaky evolution to getting cold.

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

They will never learn in the MOD thread. I warned them yesterday it was a flaky evolution to getting cold.

It should be Snow watch, Dont have Nightmares.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Had Worse

[Day 10]

Forget a big freeze, I'd be happy with one decent snow event.