North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Very sharp snowfall gradients around at the moment. I accelerated up a hill at 40mph & it literally went from slush to 5cm in 30 seconds. Normal for around the NW.

Yep, done the wet to white afew times.

I have an old 04 Galaxy and using cruise control in 2nd at around 18MPH, I can get up most hills without loosing all traction and also keeping constant RPM. Very effective.

[Backtrack]

We’re down to 0.0C now. An ice sugar dusting on some surfaces. Ground temps are below freezing. No more snow today at all. Looks like the NE is seeing rain. Unusual for this setup. 
 

Really hoping for a decent snow event this January. All of the ingredients are there, it just needs to fall correctly. Today is a good example of forecasting gone wrong. It doesn’t matter how many computer models we have access to or what technology we have, the weather will always do what it wants to do and still can throw surprises in. 

That warm front that even the high res models struggled with today produced some of the biggest flakes I have ever seen. Simply amazing. Short video attached below. More of that please. 
 

Cloud has now cleared, the low ground temps tonight could make for a low minima. We will see. The met office aren’t keep on us going below zero. 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

We’re down to 0.0C now. An ice sugar dusting on some surfaces. Ground temps are below freezing. No more snow today at all. Looks like the NE is seeing rain. Unusual for this setup. 
 

Really hoping for a decent snow event this January. All of the ingredients are there, it just needs to fall correctly. Today is a good example of forecasting gone wrong. It doesn’t matter how many computer models we have access to or what technology we have, the weather will always do what it wants to do and still can throw surprises in. 

That warm front that even the high res models struggled with today produced some of the biggest flakes I have ever seen. Simply amazing. Short video attached below. More of that please. 
 

Cloud has now cleared, the low ground temps tonight could make for a low minima. We will see. The met office aren’t keep on us going below zero. 

IMG_0826.MOV

Wont play for me.

[Barmada_Casten]

Still not seeing signs of anything SIGNIFICANT and I mean significant for the most part of the region away from high ground in the next few days. Lower levels may see a cm or 2 but not much else.

[weatherobsuk]

Local reports on FB of up to 200 stranded vehicles in and around the Goyt Valley, Long Hill, Mam Tor, Snake Pass area having *or currently still* being towed to safety after the weather caught out hill-goers. Macc Police saying to avoid the area completely as they've utilized ATV vehicles equipped to deal with the conditions and even they are struggling.

[Had Worse]

Just now, SNOW_JOKE said:

Local reports on FB of up to 200 stranded vehicles in and around the Goyt Valley, Long Hill, Mam Tor, Snake Pass area having *or currently still* being towed to safety after the weather caught out hill-goers. Macc Police saying to avoid the area completely as they've utilized ATV vehicles equipped to deal with the conditions and even they are struggling.

My wife told me exactly the same about 15 mins ago.

[Backtrack]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Wont play for me.

Give it a swift refresh. It did the same for me, it’s working now 

[Backtrack]

If anyone’s unable to play my video, here’s a YouTube link. 
 

 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

If anyone’s unable to play my video, here’s a YouTube link. 
 

 

Actually very therapeutic. 

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

Actually very therapeutic. 

I need it on a loop on my bedroom TV Hhaha

[Thunder Snow]

the showers are dying before getting to carlisle ha ha ha 

[RobR]

26 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Local reports on FB of up to 200 stranded vehicles in and around the Goyt Valley, Long Hill, Mam Tor, Snake Pass area having *or currently still* being towed to safety after the weather caught out hill-goers. Macc Police saying to avoid the area completely as they've utilized ATV vehicles equipped to deal with the conditions and even they are struggling.

The last people have just been rescued according to a tweet, 16 hour shift they have had. Apparently the Peaks have been packed today. I know I tend to head up after snow but even I wouldn't attempt this during Tier 4.

[Weather-history]

Trying out  this superslomo, get a bit addictive.

Down to -2.1C now

[Chris.R]

-0.1°C now. No Apps or forecasts seem to want me to get much below 0 at all tonight although they didn’t yesterday and we got to -3.2 so who knows.

[Kasim Awan]

With the pattrern of a sustained cold low with embedded troughs coming to an end, it's apparent now to take a look back at the fruits this brought.

Dec 27th - potent snow streamer Burnley, Blackburn 5cm with 20cm on the hills near Colne. This closed a section of the M61 & M60. Pics 1/2.

In the early hours of Dec 28th a trough formed over the Irish Sea & headed south east into Cheshire. Initially this was modelled to stay way out west however the precip intensities were at a higher intensity than projected causing them to spiral further from the trough core. This brought heavy wet snow to Liverpool which did not settle well, generally east of Runcorn, Warrington, Wigan, Altrincham & Wilmslow all got 3-6cm. The front pivotted over Stoke bringing 7cm with 15cm over Biddulph Moor. The sharp pivot gradient prevented accumulations of note further east, or where precip fell to lower levels it was rain as it was not sufficiently heavy to produce snow. Pics 3 & 4.

The next trough came crashing in on the 29th from the NE, bringing an intense hour of snowfall east of the M6 grounding MAN Airport. Widely 2-5cm & over 10cm above 400m in the Peaks, Biddulph Moor area. Maritime influence to the west produced snow pellets. Pic 5.

The 30th produced a calm, cold foggy day with a slight surface inversion for the North. Central & southern Cheshire enjoyed a marginal streamer plauged by a warm inversion. The inversion retreated later & a trough enhanced the Irish Sea, not a classic Irish Sea event however a rash of showers temporarily producing snow 5 miles from the coast. The showers congregated into NYE morning due to trough progression, producing snowfall east of the M6, into MAN Airport, west Manchester again. Pics 6 & 7.

Into New Years Eve night a weak front produced a dusting to 2cm down to Preston level...

On the 2nd a trough produced heavy snow with heavy accumulations largely above 75m asl in the South and East of the region. No surface inversion here, snow followed altitude isolines more stringently. Pic 8.

I don't think any other regional chat has as much to talk about! The set up of a cold slack low with embedded disturbances does 4 things.

1) Lighter winds retreat the maritime layer line nearer to the coast. The mean wind speed was 8mph which restricts it from Preston to St Helens.

2) Low level shearing @ 500mb prevents strong orographic uplift & moisture depletion, due to light winds, combined with v. low heights this prevents a precipitation shadow. Low heights increase mixing rebound.

3) Development of an inversion. The cold layer means temps do not increase from 200m above to the surface superficially raising a location's altitude by 2/300m. 

4) Statistical luck. Mother nature has a super computer. It smooths spatial variability in snow cover at the multi annual level. This, on a superficial level, could be a cause for the usual "snow desert" areas doing SO well this time.

Things to learn: we have seen a lot of votatility from the hi res output between -T48 and -T6. The trend in this period seems to always be correct - earlier on projections are usually replaced by solution #2 which has verified so many times in the last week.

> EURO4 is the NW streamer king

> WRF & ICON for trough solving

> Troughs are usually more intense than the hires resolvement

[carl1980]

-0.3 not much change in the last hour

[Kasim Awan]

Btw I am glad for this forum / thread, it is another avenue to delve into meteorology whilst I finish my course.

[cheshire snow]

@Kasim Awan

What your thoughts for the week ahead?

Most models now showing a milder blip at about day 10 do you think this is a brief blip before the effects of the SSW take effect.

Have you ever thought of doing a video forecast and posting in here bit like Gav does on two.

C.S

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

With the pattrern of a sustained cold low with embedded troughs coming to an end, it's apparent now to take a look back at the fruits this brought.

Dec 27th - potent snow streamer Burnley, Blackburn 5cm with 20cm on the hills near Colne. This closed a section of the M61 & M60. Pics 1/2.

In the early hours of Dec 28th a trough formed over the Irish Sea & headed south east into Cheshire. Initially this was modelled to stay way out west however the precip intensities were at a higher intensity than projected causing them to spiral further from the trough core. This brought heavy wet snow to Liverpool which did not settle well, generally east of Runcorn, Warrington, Wigan, Altrincham & Wilmslow all got 3-6cm. The front pivotted over Stoke bringing 7cm with 15cm over Biddulph Moor. The sharp pivot gradient prevented accumulations of note further east, or where precip fell to lower levels it was rain as it was not sufficiently heavy to produce snow. Pics 3 & 4.

The next trough came crashing in on the 29th from the NE, bringing an intense hour of snowfall east of the M6 grounding MAN Airport. Widely 2-5cm & over 10cm above 400m in the Peaks, Biddulph Moor area. Maritime influence to the west produced snow pellets. Pic 5.

The 30th produced a calm, cold foggy day with a slight surface inversion for the North. Central & southern Cheshire enjoyed a marginal streamer plauged by a warm inversion. The inversion retreated later & a trough enhanced the Irish Sea, not a classic Irish Sea event however a rash of showers temporarily producing snow 5 miles from the coast. The showers congregated into NYE morning due to trough progression, producing snowfall east of the M6, into MAN Airport, west Manchester again. Pics 6 & 7.

Into New Years Eve night a weak front produced a dusting to 2cm down to Preston level...

On the 2nd a trough produced heavy snow with heavy accumulations largely above 75m asl in the South and East of the region. No surface inversion here, snow followed altitude isolines more stringently. Pic 8.

 

 

Very interesting post. 

I have been very fortunate at my location, there has been lying snow here since the early hours of 28th December to the SW of Manchester.

It even snowed Christmas Day albeit a few flakes but that was totally unexpected 

[captaincroc]

Great to hear that skies are clearing.  Hopefully will keep temps down. 

[Backtrack]

9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

@Kasim Awan

What your thoughts for the week ahead?

Most models now showing a milder blip at about day 10 do you think this is a brief blip before the effects of the SSW take effect.

Have you ever thought of doing a video forecast and posting in here bit like Gav does on two.

C.S

I’m not Kasim, but I don’t see an end to cold any time soon, not even out towards d10. However, I do think this current cold spell will look like a mild blip when the effects of the SSW filter down to the troposphere!

Northerly at the end of the 12z was interesting. 

[jam2010]

Just watching match of the day, proper snow fest during the west brom match. 

[damianslaw]

This is an imby post, but because the past week has been very disappointing on the snowfall front here, unusually so compared to the more snow barren parts of the NW, I'm much more hopeful of some snowfall within the new week, if the current models verify. Give me a full on atlantic frontal attack in cold air, and your talking, none of this marginal showery, trough business.

[cheshire snow]

Long way to go but Day 7 on the 18zGFS 

Wax your sledges LP from the NW we get a pasting if it verified

C.S

 

 

 

 

 

 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Long way to go but Day 7 on the 18zGFS 

Wax your sledges LP from the NW we get a pasting if it verified

C.S

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes it was with this run in mind, I made the post above. Its been 8 years since we had a proper snowfall in January, 26 Jan 2013 last time. Nothing beats a full on heavy snowfall event in January, how it should be. January is true winter.