North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards

[Frost HoIIow]

4 minutes ago, jam2010 said:

Just watching match of the day, proper snow fest during the west brom match. 

I believe the hawthorns is the highest ground in the PL & football leagues @ 168m asl. There's some non league stadiums that are higher though.

[Barmada_Casten]

Once again, for the umpteenth consecutive year not only have I witnessed other parts of the country get far more more snow than me, but also other parts of my own region. It is painful, such to the point I went to Scandinavia and the  Baltic’s last January to experience a true winter only for them to have their warmest winter on record. Really have had a pitiful amount here once again, must be around 7 years since we had a over a cm of snow - simply ludicrous for an inland location. Nothing bites me in the forecast either.

[Frost HoIIow]

3 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Once again, for the umpteenth consecutive year not only have I witnessed other parts of the country get far more more snow than me, but also other parts of my own region. It is painful, such to the point I went to Scandinavia and the  Baltic’s last January to experience a true winter only for them to have their warmest winter on record. Really have had a pitiful amount here once again, must be around 7 years since we had a over a cm of snow - simply ludicrous for an inland location. Nothing bites me in the forecast either.

Jeez your almost as bad as Geordiesnow. And where's "here?" You've not said where you live. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[Kasim Awan]

40 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

@Kasim Awan

What your thoughts for the week ahead?

Most models now showing a milder blip at about day 10 do you think this is a brief blip before the effects of the SSW take effect.

Have you ever thought of doing a video forecast and posting in here bit like Gav does on two.

C.S

It's difficult to give any definitive ideas re snow potential beyond day 4 at this stage. Ultimately the trend from day 4 to day 8 is one of convergence in a cold air mass with slack winds - this holds reasonable potential for NW England esp if the low holds an initial WNW component. As @Backtrack says, the outlook beyond even this is looking quite firmly cold.

In terms of the upcoming easterly the risk is a correlation with elevation and proximity to the Nort Sea in this region. It's just a case of setting values. For Monday it will be sleety below 275m, with showers giving 1-3cm over the A57, Holme Moss etc. Temps shunt this down to 150m after midnight Tuesday - still pretty high. This should give 2-5cm at times east of "the magic line" a la A66, M60 and A523 & above 120m in prolonged precip. Locally 7cm above 300m. Again shower decay here so >> Further west amounts decreasing drastically west of Hattersley to the M60 mostly patchy 1cm due to streamers - and to the west of Manchester to mostly 0 by the city to M6, between M6 and the 120m contour possible scattered dustings atm a la most of population. > So not great BUT.. We need to watch early Tuesday for a trough & streamer, esp early Tuesday. This could pep things up, streamers into Shaw, Simmondley & Buxton are possible.. 3-7cm here further west a patchy 2cm maybe if the flow improves still. Atm this latter phase on Tuesday is not 100% will know more by Monday. 

I'll see you all on Monday. 

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Spah1]

8 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Once again, for the umpteenth consecutive year not only have I witnessed other parts of the country get far more more snow than me, but also other parts of my own region. It is painful, such to the point I went to Scandinavia and the  Baltic’s last January to experience a true winter only for them to have their warmest winter on record. Really have had a pitiful amount here once again, must be around 7 years since we had a over a cm of snow - simply ludicrous for an inland location. Nothing bites me in the forecast either.

No idea where you are talking about. 

[Backtrack]

10 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Once again, for the umpteenth consecutive year not only have I witnessed other parts of the country get far more more snow than me, but also other parts of my own region. It is painful, such to the point I went to Scandinavia and the  Baltic’s last January to experience a true winter only for them to have their warmest winter on record. Really have had a pitiful amount here once again, must be around 7 years since we had a over a cm of snow - simply ludicrous for an inland location. Nothing bites me in the forecast either.

Have you ever considered moving to a more snowy location then?

[jam2010]

9 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I believe the hawthorns is the highest ground in the PL & football leagues @ 168m asl. There's some non league stadiums that are higher though.

Didn't know that! explains why it was so heavy, unusual to see the pitch covered in snow.

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

This is an imby post, but because the past week has been very disappointing on the snowfall front here, unusually so compared to the more snow barren parts of the NW, I'm much more hopeful of some snowfall within the new week, if the current models verify. Give me a full on atlantic frontal attack in cold air, and your talking, none of this marginal showery, trough business.

Unfortunately even this is a little marginal although details will no doubt change between now and then. We need the cold air to be stubborn and fight against the less cold air as much as possible. That said with your latitude, maybe you will be more lucky. 

BTW the easterly is starting and you can see already why I harped about the uppers in the model thread, uppers are not cold enough hence all them showers in the NE are of rain. The easterly will get a tad colder at - 8 uppers but will that be cold enough given higher thicknesses and pressure, there may not be much deep convective activity to lower the temperatures. 

Today was different as there was slight kinks in the isobars and a shallow area of lower thicknesses which looked like developed a trough(hence there was PPN on this side of the Pennines) and bought more widespread PPN than clearly the ECM model thought. 

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

19 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Once again, for the umpteenth consecutive year not only have I witnessed other parts of the country get far more more snow than me, but also other parts of my own region. It is painful, such to the point I went to Scandinavia and the  Baltic’s last January to experience a true winter only for them to have their warmest winter on record. Really have had a pitiful amount here once again, must be around 7 years since we had a over a cm of snow - simply ludicrous for an inland location. Nothing bites me in the forecast either.

Instead of going to scandinavia for snow you should have just went to Buxton

[Mark.C]

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

This is an imby post, but because the past week has been very disappointing on the snowfall front here, unusually so compared to the more snow barren parts of the NW, I'm much more hopeful of some snowfall within the new week, if the current models verify. Give me a full on atlantic frontal attack in cold air, and your talking, none of this marginal showery, trough business.

Hi Damian 

same here frontal attack into cold air is the best bet, although the easterly of Late January ‘96 gave a good cover to the coast here, plus the infamous February event, also 2013 we had quite a notable spell here in the January from the south east if I remember correctly 

[Alexis]

Temperatures creeping up slightly and it's rain in the north east I believe. Think there's a short warm snap to get through before the winds switch east tomorrow

[shunthebartlett92]

37 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I believe the hawthorns is the highest ground in the PL & football leagues @ 168m asl. There's some non league stadiums that are higher though.

You’re quite right, I’ve seen a few snowfalls over the years there. imagine being a wba fan now though! (Me) Thankfully we had enough snow to counter the misery

Edited January 2, 2021 by shunthebartlett92

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Jeez your almost as bad as Geordiesnow. And where's "here?" You've not said where you live. 

Almost as bad!? Clearly you have not read enough of Barmada's posts over the years. 

I'm realistic but certainly not mellowdramatic about the weather.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Geordiesnow

[Frost HoIIow]

39 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Almost as bad!? Clearly you have not read enough of Barmada's posts over the years. 

I'm realistic but certainly not mellowdramatic about the weather.

Ones of his posts is enough! Haha. Well I assume it's a male... I find it hard to believe he hasn't had more than a cm of snow since 2013. I'd probably believe it if he was at the immediate coast but he says he lives well inland. Where that is exactly he never tells us. So I'm assuming it's a trolling post more than anything to be taken seriously. From what I remember he said the same things before the BFTE in 2018. Only to disappear shortly before it.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[WillinGlossop]

Lightly snowing 0c nothing on radar but flurrying.... dew must have gone below freezing again 

Edited January 3, 2021 by WillinGlossop

[Rain Lady]

If anyone is interested in rain midst the snow ..... !

 

Here's the rain update summary for 2020 in SW Bowland, Lancs

Site at 550ft / 170m approx, about a mile from the summit of Parlick Pike.

It is a Met Office rainfall observers site in operation since Sept 1968.  Same manual rain gauge used throughout.  Collection daily at 9am GMT.

 

The 2020 rainfall total of 2009.6 mm (79.1 inches) was the highest annual amount recorded in the last 50 years. Beat the previous record of 1984.0 mm in 2012.

2020 was about 35% up on the current average, 1491.3 mm.

 

Two months were record breakers. February with 333.2 mm was about three times the average.  July was over twice the average.

There were long dry spells in April and May and few drier days in September, but otherwise the year was routinely wet and cloudy and difficult for farming and other outdoor work.

It's interesting that the wettest years have occurred 2000 onwards. The computer program detects an upward trend in the annual data. See chart.

 

[Chris.R]

48 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Ones of his posts is enough! Haha. Well I assume it's a male... I find it hard to believe he hasn't had more than a cm of snow since 2013. I'd probably believe it if he was at the immediate coast but he says he lives well inland. Where that is exactly he never tells us. So I'm assuming it's a trolling post more than anything to be taken seriously. From what I remember he said the same things before the BFTE in 2018. Only to disappear shortly before it.

I seem to remember once he said he was in the Lake District somewhere Ambleside I think.

[James M]

Temperature has crept up to 1.6°C, shame those showers won’t be of snow, looks like they’re getting going again. 

[Miamay]

A bitterly cold night here

[iand61]

No more snow overnight here but I’ve lost little if any of what fell yesterday afternoon; even the cars are still covered.

 there seems to be at least a chance of more showers today although the uppers and surface air is forecast to be slightly higher so more of a wintry mix in anything which falls but over the higher ground, every chance of a few more cm’s being added to what is already turning into a decent winter spell.

plenty of interest in the coming few days as well with an easterly feeding showers well inland and hopefully across the Pennines.

very hit and miss of course but for the lucky ones, the chance of some substantial snowfall and with suppressed temperatures and hard frosts overnight; it should stay on the ground for many.

all in all, plenty of interest in the days ahead and a million miles away from the usual conditions of recent winters.

 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Quick Chart skim. 

Easterly firing up but  looks like the rain shadow will come into play. As for the next 8 to10 it’s definitely not warm defaultness and could shape up to be quite a memorable spell. Especially turning to a  NW flow at the weekend even Cumbria might see some some  activity  

Just a matter of being “confined to barracks” 

Ironically bad timing...! 

  

[severe snowstorm]

Just looking at the automated temperature forecasts IMBY for next 7 days on the metoffice website and it never rises above 4C on any day. Therefore, cold conditions continue for the foreseeable. So what if it's looking dry with no snow for some parts for the next couple of days. The last few days have shown that features can pop up at short notice. In any case, the cold dry days are superb for getting 'permitted' exercise. Lots of doom and gloom in the Southern (sorry....mod) thread, but lots to look forward to and enjoy weatherwise in my view.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Dexter

[Spah1]

Next interest Tuesday???

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Next interest Tuesday???

History says it would probably be a bit to far south to effect me but chances better for Peaks and Greater Manchester.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, iand61 said:

History says it would probably be a bit to far south to effect me but chances better for Peaks and Greater Manchester.

noticed this streamer for Tues, BBC have it further north than GFS, bbc more SK4 area, GFS maybe more my area