South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[CheesepuffScott]

Stayed mostly cloudy all day, with lighter winds than yesterday... reached 7.1°C

Currently 1.2°C with clear sky.

[suxer]

9 hours ago, Mapantz said:

 

Thats not bad for the usually stingy UKV

[Dorsetbred]

After  yesterdays rain & hail, so much moisture around was removing ice from inside the windscreen as well as outside this morning, even though it wasn't that cold..an overnight low of -1.2°C at: 06:39, currently -0.4°C, RH95%, and pressure 993.3mb rising. Partly cloudy start..

[ARTDEMOLE]

Frost going now. 2.5c. Humidity 91% Rh.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Beautiful frost this morning, still on all the fields, but has just started raining! You couldn’t make it up! 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Weather of Mass Disruption

[Blizzard]

Just taking a screenshot of all the snow we're due to have by end Monday according to GFS 0z ... before its gone...

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

Just taking a screenshot of all the snow we're due to have by end Monday according to GFS 0z ... before its gone...

Hmm, looks like I will have a mere dusting on that chart where areas not far away have deep snow!  Anyway, subject to change and have a nice thick frost here this morning.

[Frosty_wsm]

17 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

Just taking a screenshot of all the snow we're due to have by end Monday according to GFS 0z ... before its gone...

What a letdown if that's how it plays out! 

[chris55]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

Just taking a screenshot of all the snow we're due to have by end Monday according to GFS 0z ... before its gone...

I haven't caught up with the models this morning, just popped in here first........that'll do!!

Apps showing not a lot so assuming UKMO and EC with a different take. Will check now.

[Blizzard]

That was purely said in jest.... I'll dance naked in the snow if there is 19cm to play with.  Hopefully there is a chance for all of us to see a flake or two over the next few days.... you never know..

(EDIT) From ECWWF 0z... I think we'd all take that!...

Edited January 22, 2021 by Blizzard

[SteveB]

5 minutes ago, Smartie said:

What a letdown if that's how it plays out! 

It's like trying extract blood from a stone - getting snow down here!

Will we be unlucky again 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

That was purely said in jest.... I'll dance naked in the snow if there is 19cm to play with.  Hopefully there is a chance for all of us to see a flake or two over the next few days.... you never know..

(EDIT) From ECWWF 0z... I think we'd all take that!...

Better.....

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Not cross model agreement for snow on Sunday.

We’ll soon see what the Met think about snow prospects for our region if any yellow warnings are issued later this morning.

[Frank Trough]

I want the ICON 06z to be on the money please.  

[Mapantz]

UKV sticking to previous output.

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Mapantz

[chris55]

Yea, you can see the Low crossing the region Sunday into Monday on ECM. A few cms for many would be lovely.

Sunday 1am (12am UK time I think)

Monday 12am

 

6z GFS has snow for many as well

 

UKMO not so keen looking at the Op, the Low fizzles out. (I think the UKV Mapantz posted above takes its data from the UKMO)

 

Still low confidence in the final track, intensity and position on any snowfall Sunday. But you'd think some places will see some.

I think we'd all be happy with ECM so lets hope it got it right........(well maybe I prefer the 16cm from GFS lol.....)

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by chris55

[Don]

9 minutes ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

Not cross model agreement for snow on Sunday.

We’ll soon see what the Met think about snow prospects for our region if any yellow warnings are issued later this morning.

Currently, the Met seem to think it will mainly be rain with hill snow on Sunday for the South West and rain, sleet and hill snow on Tuesday.

[Frank Trough]

the FAX has the front sort of sliding along the channel, i guess more in line with UKMO. 

[Frank Trough]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Currently, the Met seem to think it will mainly be rain with hill snow on Sunday for the South West and rain, sleet and hill snow on Tuesday.

If it can fall as rain anywhere, Bournemouth is your place. That GFS chart posted above has played out before - rain here, snow in Ringwood. 

[chris55]

46 minutes ago, Blizzard said:

Just taking a screenshot of all the snow we're due to have by end Monday according to GFS 0z ... before its gone...

Looking at GFS in more detail and you can see its a second system following behind that tops up the totals on this chart!

 

First low, 

Second low...ECM has this second system as well. But with the 24h jump in charts we can't follow its progress.

 

In short, complicated lol.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

If it can fall as rain anywhere, Bournemouth is your place. That GFS chart posted above has played out before - rain here, snow in Ringwood. 

Yes, that is one of the downsides of living by the coast.  However, at least you don't have to travel too far (in normal times!!) to find snow.

[lettice]

Turned out a nice dry sunny day at times yesterday. 9.9c high at midday, 5c at midnight.
A low of 0.9c at 8:30am.
A very slight frost, that you had to get out your magnifying glass to see it on the fence tops.
Sun is blazing this morning with clear blue skies.
Now, 4c, very light Westerly wind, 994.3 hPa rising fast

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

the FAX has the front sort of sliding along the channel, i guess more in line with UKMO. 

If that's correct, my area might be too far north to benefit?!

[Blizzard]

Looking at the radar there is some stuff gathering in the Southern Irish Sea that looks to come our way this afternoon... poss wintery in nature - esp in heavier bursts or over the hills...

[lettice]

Nice upgrade this morning from the forecasts here for snow from 9am Sunday onwards, turning to sleet late morning.