South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[minus10]

Its all so depressing looking out on grey ,drab and drizzle. Particulary when some of the more knowledgeable on here were seemingly confident a few days back of a prolonged cold spell. Be interested in what their take on the situation is now. Perhaps the el nino has put a spanner in the works?

[Number 23]

I think we really need a decent Easterly to get things going here, which is so difficult to get right. Of course when it does, it's amazing, so a double edged sword.

Many other parts of the country don't need all their ducks in a row to the same extent IMHO; they either have elevation on their side, do better out of battleground situations etc.

Although to be fair, we often stuff our faces with 30+ during the summer while it's raining and 21 elsewhere.

[Kentspur]

32 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Its all so depressing looking out on grey ,drab and drizzle. Particulary when some of the more knowledgeable on here were seemingly confident a few days back of a prolonged cold spell. Be interested in what their take on the situation is now. Perhaps the el nino has put a spanner in the works?

La Nina I  assume you meant?  Which seems to be counteracting the positive effects of the current SSW as was posted on twitter it needs to bugger off quickly!

[Number 23]

Anyone seen the latest MetO update?

Obviously JFF at that range, but they seem to be going with a N/S split with cold from Scandi, and significant snow on the boundary - that'd be a final kick in the teeth!

Just out of interest, anyone who knows their stuff understand what sort of set-up they are seeing? A Scandi high with lows going under it, but the pattern a touch too far North? I'm a total numpty at this, but an interested one...

[Kentspur]

Jealous of Belgium several days of snow in a row there and there just across the sea!

[cookie27]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Jealous of Belgium several days of snow in a row there and there just across the sea!

Yeah they have a nice little lol out of Germany, which could have headed this way if the high wasn't collapsing and we get the pesky low from the north 

[minus10]

10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

La Nina I  assume you meant?  Which seems to be counteracting the positive effects of the current SSW as was posted on twitter it needs to bugger off quickly!

Sorry i meant La Nina. Get the two confused. Too much looking at these threads

[paget]

It’s raining now here, temp stayed a steady 4 all day and dp 1 all day (Farnham, surrey) 

[paget]

How are you @lassie23?  
 

it’s so hard, I found it was good to crack on with stuff (I have a house full of stuff to sort!) my parents died in the house (is been their carer for years so I got rid of all the medical equipment etc! That made things a bit better!  But If you just feel like doing nothing that’s ok too!!  Lots of love 

Sue x 

[Reefseeker]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Can anyone recccomend any Weather Books that will help me with how Stratopheric Temperature and Geopression along with 850hpa and how they affect our Weather or any weather books that you found helpfull thanks.

Have you checked out the dedicated threads on Netweather looking in more detail at this? For example in the learning area. There are so many knowledgeable people around: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/learning/

[danm]

Well there's one thing we know for sure - convection hasn't been an issue during this easterly. If conditions were right, many of us would be getting a good dumping. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by danm

[NewEra21]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Well there's one thing we know for sure - convection hasn't been an issue during this easterly. If conditions were right, many of us would be getting a good dumping. 

Yep. And that just makes it all the more painful, watching those puddles grow bigger knowing it could have been snow.

[PiscesStar]

44 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Jealous of Belgium several days of snow in a row there and there just across the sea!

Oh cheers for that like we needed to know that ha ha

[Tom Quintavalle]

Evening all,

Just wanted to Copy/Paste this extract from a Wikipedia explanation of the dynamics of "Lake-effect" Snow, or for our Region, North Sea effect Snow:

QUOTE - 

"If the air temperature is low enough to keep the precipitation frozen, it falls as lake-effect snow. If not, then it falls as lake-effect rain. For lake-effect rain or snow to form, the air moving across the lake must be significantly cooler than the surface air (which is likely to be near the temperature of the water surface). Specifically, the air temperature at an altitude where the air pressure is 850 millibars (85 kPa) (roughly 1.5 kilometers or 0.93 miles vertically) should be 13 °C (23 °F) lower than the temperature of the air at the surface. Lake-effect occurring when the air at 850 millibars (85 kPa) is much colder than the water surface can produce thundersnow, snow showers accompanied by lightning and thunder (caused by larger amounts of energy available from the increased instability)."

Below, are a couple of links to the current Sea Temperatures  around the U.K., page set at Harwich, Essex and on the other side of the North Sea, off the coast of Belgium.

Harwich Water Temperature | United Kingdom Sea Temperatures

Current sea water temperature in Belgium (seatemperature.info)

We can see from this information, that we need Upper Air temperatures of around -5c, this would give a differential of around -13c or so, meeting the criteria required between the Upper Air and the surface of the North Sea.

As we can see from the Radar returns Today, plenty of precipitation has formed but the Air temperature closer to the ground has been a few degrees to high. to result in Snow.

Regards,

Tom 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Obviously, way out in la-la land and not to be taken too seriously yet but perhaps the 12z GFS was starting to smell the S.S.W. coffee, with strong heights building over Greenland:

Regards,

Tom 

[NewEra21]

10 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Obviously, way out in la-la land and not to be taken too seriously yet but perhaps the 12z GFS was starting to smell the S.S.W. coffee, with strong heights building over Greenland:

Regards,

Tom 

Like the GH high, although I don't like those heights in Europe.

But at least a GH is promising to be seen modelled, and like you say @TomSE12 it's too far out in lala land to worry about the pattern too much. But maybe the models will finally start to sniff the SSW and better charts will be in offer on the days/weeks ahead.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by NewEra21

[Eagle Eye]

8 tried looking at the start of dynamic meteorology and got a tad confused. 

[snowrye]

A glimpse of the sun, always nice after the drab and crappy last couple of days

[NewEra21]

Last chance saloon for a bit of the white stuff from this so called cold spell.... Yeah I don't believe it one bit either

Edited January 5, 2021 by NewEra21

[TommyB]

Miserable day on the whole, currently 2.8c. Had a nice sunset, albeit brief! Went for a quick walk on the beach to get some photos, before it started raining again 

 

[Southender]

8 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Last chance saloon for a bit of the white stuff from this so called cold spell.... Yeah I don't believe it one bit either

We already know what will happen with that as with most bands of snow coming from the North....Snow for Scotland right down to the M25 then it will fizzle out over the SE.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Jealous of Belgium several days of snow in a row there and there just across the sea!

Believe it when I see it. If it does snow there, it’ll be a wet, rapidly melting mess with those temperatures. Even Central and Eastern Europe are  snowless. Air is being sourced from the wrong places for a proper European freeze, unfortunately. While this weather is crap, there’s plenty of winter left, we’re not even half way through yet. 

[Eagle Eye]

So then at the moment it seems the best that we can do is - 6 860hpa's with the Westernly Winter shift it means that we have to have a low Thickness Geopotential which comes with a low. 

They line up typically from what I can tell as:

-10-20:Greens will bring deep snow with precipitation can bring Snow in High's as well. 

-7-9:Light blues and greens perhaps onto Yellow's with the odd Flake or two. 

-6:Darker blue and dark blue

-5:very dark blue to greyish purple

-4:Purple and pink 

-3-1:Very deep pink to purple for a light dwelling of snow. 

So what we're looking for is a blue preferably dark blue but it doesn't have to be a pink to purple would be even better. 

ATM it seems like we've got a - 4 850hpa which would need some deep pinks and purples to have some laying. 

Unfortunatly the 850hpa's aren't Cold enough for real Snow most likely any time soon. 

However by Saturday And Sunday Time we do have - 6 850hpa's along with quite a deep Blue which is why I think that that'll be our Highest Chance Of This Week most likely. 

[Kreftysoton]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Believe it when I see it. If it does snow there, it’ll be a wet, rapidly melting mess with those temperatures. Even Central and Eastern Europe are  snowless. Air is being sourced from the wrong places for a proper European freeze, unfortunately. While this weather is crap, there’s plenty of winter left, we’re not even half way through yet. 

It doesnt help when madrid is forecast this either!!

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

It doesnt help when madrid is forecast this either!!

Bloody annoying, but it is at nearly 700m. Not completely unusual for Madrid to have snow at some point in Winter. Probably gets more than London!