South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

Afternoon everyone,

Suddenly I feel as if thre could be  geniune chance this Year here, it feels as if Spring is upon us however this is going by the forecast from a week ago, the warmth beginning to settle in, when it moves on to be a Scndanavian High that's when it'll push the cold air, in a process that ends up with those uppers needed to bring significant snowfall.

Although the Scandanavian High hasn't been sighted yet on this run, we could also have an Eastern European Huugh pushingit.

Although that is way too far out.

Xander

Edited January 28, 2021 by Hurricane Squad

[Binsey72]

I’ll believe it when I see it !

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

Now thats on the line!

Similar to last weeks snow event. I'm holding back till tomorrow to really get excited. I do think many further south and east will get something.

My worry is dew points. We say them rise quickly after the event with snow melting only a few hours after settling. 

[Polaris]

2 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

Now thats on the line!

Similar to last weeks snow event. I'm holding back till tomorrow to really get excited. I do think many further south and east will get something.

My worry is dew points. We say them rise quickly after the event with snow melting only a few hours after settling. 

Remember when the snow warning was (extended) on the day last Sunday. 
 

I expect will be the same for Saturday 

[Reefseeker]

1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

Back home in Cobham it’s noticeable how high the water table is particularly around Esher Common - the Mole is pretty high too if we have any more significant rain flooding could become a real problem .... 

We've had to give up on most of the commons and parks due to deep mud and flooded areas, which is frustrating as my son gets very anxious at all the packed pavements when out walking (he has autism) and is constantly asking if he needs to shower when he gets home. As I mentioned earlier, we now have a pond covering the grass in our back garden which always signals a very high water table. Still want the snow though....;)

[Lampostwatcher]

I'd expect that snow warning to possibly extend south and East a bit for late Saturday / sunday

[Tim Bland]

36 minutes ago, Binsey72 said:

I’ll believe it when I see it !

Could be snow falling but not settling for quite a large part of the region

[Laurence Hill]

38 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

We've had to give up on most of the commons and parks due to deep mud and flooded areas, which is frustrating as my son gets very anxious at all the packed pavements when out walking (he has autism) and is constantly asking if he needs to shower when he gets home. As I mentioned earlier, we now have a pond covering the grass in our back garden which always signals a very high water table. Still want the snow though....;)

Hi Reefseeker, I’ve just noticed your little advert for London Walk on YouTube.  Had a quick look and it’s brilliant.  Wish I knew about it when I was more mobile.  Well done!

[Blazerblue]

38 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

We've had to give up on most of the commons and parks due to deep mud and flooded areas, which is frustrating as my son gets very anxious at all the packed pavements when out walking (he has autism) and is constantly asking if he needs to shower when he gets home. As I mentioned earlier, we now have a pond covering the grass in our back garden which always signals a very high water table. Still want the snow though....;)

Same, im trying hard to get my son with autism out on a daily walk, or he just stays vegetating in his room with little to no movement. But today, the areas we normally go around fields and near a river, are once again under water, and having to go near people isnt his thing, avoids people at all costs, especially now as he fears catching germs if anyone comes near him, This winter has been awful for the amounts of rain we've had, maybe once or twice a year the river floods the pathsways, but been at least 6 times since december where the paths have water higher than wellies, and make the whole area impassable.

[moogyboobles]

19 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Same, im trying hard to get my son with autism out on a daily walk, or he just stays vegetating in his room with little to no movement. But today, the areas we normally go around fields and near a river, are once again under water, and having to go near people isnt his thing, avoids people at all costs, especially now as he fears catching germs if anyone comes near him, This winter has been awful for the amounts of rain we've had, maybe once or twice a year the river floods the pathsways, but been at least 6 times since december where the paths have water higher than wellies, and make the whole area impassable.

You've done better than me, it's a rare occasion I get my autistic son outside at the moment. Even our own garden... it has to be scheduled in, but then it's often inconvenient for him despite being put in the diary! 

I cannot believe how mild this is, I got my bedding dried out on the line (half the garden still flooded though). I almost want to pour a glass of wine and sit in the garden! 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, MAF said:

it's all so confusing at the moment. will it, won't it? who knows. personally i will look out the window and decide which outdoor wear to put on come the day. I am so frustrated with current forecasts, they are really not getting to grips with the next 24 - 48 hours, let alone 72+ hours. 

currently it's dry, mild, cloudy and little breeze. not sure how the temps are going to drop 5-8 degrees in the next day or so to make it conducive for snow come Sat/Sun as some forecasters are portraying

 

 

Well we'll see what the temps like tomorrow, I would expect colder, after an active front comes through tonight.

[Reefseeker]

54 minutes ago, Laurence Hill said:

Hi Reefseeker, I’ve just noticed your little advert for London Walk on YouTube.  Had a quick look and it’s brilliant.  Wish I knew about it when I was more mobile.  Well done!

Thank you so much, that is very kind:) Join in on the channel any time with a comment as I try to respond to everyone (the nice ones anyway!). It's a great hobby actually and there are people from all over the world that watch the videos - it's almost like an international pen pal club, for modern times!

It's grey and raining here.....:(

Edited January 28, 2021 by Reefseeker

[Reefseeker]

Oh my goodness @moogyboobles, I know what you mean about diary planning! It's an uphill struggle. And @Blazerblue, the same here, walking is kind of our life saver but similarly my lad at the grand old age of 21 is very germ phobic so we end up spending half the walk obsessively discussing if that person was too close to us, do we need a shower and why are we walking on the road again. The muddy parks and woodlands result in narrower pathways for people to walk on and in a recent panic he ruined some trainers in a deep mud puddle. Roll on drier weather (but some snow too, please....).

[moogyboobles]

7 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Oh my goodness @moogyboobles, I know what you mean about diary planning! It's an uphill struggle. And @Blazerblue, the same here, walking is kind of our life saver but similarly my lad at the grand old age of 21 is very germ phobic so we end up spending half the walk obsessively discussing if that person was too close to us, do we need a shower and why are we walking on the road again. The muddy parks and woodlands result in narrower pathways for people to walk on and in a recent panic he ruined some trainers in a deep mud puddle. Roll on drier weather (but some snow too, please....).

To be honest I'm the one being the very socially distant walker in the middle of the road! I'm clinically vulnerable so walking is the only thing I leave the house to do. I'm not normally like that, in my job I'm quite often in a mosh pit squished up against sweaty strangers at a festival.

Weirdly my son is not that bothered by COVID, he wore his mask all day in college no problem at all, and is getting lots of support remotely now working at home. He just needs things to be exactly the right mood and atmosphere to do them, like going outside! 
I bought a pizza oven a few months ago (all those missed Pizza Express trip more than paid for it), and that has helped get him outside a bit more.

The battle I've had over many many years is getting help with his independence. SaLT and OT help. He's very clever but completely dependent. Might be getting somewhere now he is an adult.. I think. They might just be fobbing me off again!

 

[Blazerblue]

39 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

You've done better than me, it's a rare occasion I get my autistic son outside at the moment. Even our own garden... it has to be scheduled in, but then it's often inconvenient for him despite being put in the diary! 

I cannot believe how mild this is, I got my bedding dried out on the line (half the garden still flooded though). I almost want to pour a glass of wine and sit in the garden! 

This has only just begun in the last few days, due to him having a bit of a scare when he went dizzy, couldnt feel his hands and nearly passed out, due to not leaving his room, except toileting/bathing since college broke up for the xmas holidays! Been telling him for years hes doing damage to himself and his muscles by not moving enough, After that incident, hes agree to a daily half hour walk, finally believing its a problem to stay in bed for weeks on end! Now hes just moaning his legs hurt, well yep because you're actually using the muscles! Teenage lethargy combined with severe social interaction fears are not a great combination, so im taking every opportunity to get him moving and going into the outside world. Now i need to buy him some wellies to actually be able to walk through the flood waters of course, thats another fight to get him to wear something hes never worn before, the joys of ASD.

[Blazerblue]

19 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Oh my goodness @moogyboobles, I know what you mean about diary planning! It's an uphill struggle. And @Blazerblue, the same here, walking is kind of our life saver but similarly my lad at the grand old age of 21 is very germ phobic so we end up spending half the walk obsessively discussing if that person was too close to us, do we need a shower and why are we walking on the road again. The muddy parks and woodlands result in narrower pathways for people to walk on and in a recent panic he ruined some trainers in a deep mud puddle. Roll on drier weather (but some snow too, please....).

Oh the joys of germ phobia, my son has worn his mask religiously all day at college and a pair of wolly gloves all day, he believes that keeps him safe from touching any germs, cant quite make him understand that the gloves can pick up virus particules as easily as his hands. And of course road walking entails people passing, so the need to make sure he doesnt just walk straight into the road to avoid them, ignoring the fact the cars will do more damage than the person! 

Back to the weather, more heavy rain forecast for tonight so thats not going to improve the flood situation, Flood warnings been out since lunchtime for our areas rivers, and we now have an underpass unpassable through the town, although the ducks might enjoy it, safer for them than crossing the road.

[MAF]

how great is our little place in net weather! real people sharing non-weather related stuff and no politics/weather./moans/groans/stupidity/or anything else negative sometimes. 

to everyone here including @moogyboobles @Blazerblue @Reefseeker i really hope you are doing well in these difficult times and hope everyone has the help they need 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I see the GFS has done its first proper shift south on the 12z.. 

ECM also has shifted south ..

 

While Arpege had a major melt down ICON having non of it

[MAF]

Just now, Surrey said:

I see the GFS has done its first proper shift south on the 12z.. 

ECM also has shifted south ..

 

While Arpege had a major melt down ICON having non of it

but what are the consequences of that? . for those who may have no idea what you mean  

[Shunter]

Saturday looking good for the  SE corner on Harmonie........

[NewEra21]

12z GFS still going for the start of an Easterly at the end of next week. Yes these charts aren't perfect, as you would like the cold a little further south into Europe. But from a pure pattern and starting point you'd take this all day long!

Edited January 28, 2021 by NewEra21

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, MAF said:

but what are the consequences of that? . for those who may have no idea what you mean  

Diddly squat really lol!!! It is all up in the air.. On this one I think it won't go in our favour.. Maybe the odd chance of some back edge snow and certainly members more North of the region might catch a few rouge CMs.. 

The issue with under cutting cold is timing. The front is not really coming through at the best of times being mostly in day time hours plus there would be quite a lot of mixing going on .

Secondly it wont be like last weekend in that when the snow hit the cold was in place and everything that fell settled. Thats why places in my area and near by did so well.. The conversation rate of PPN to SNOW was very high.. 

[MAF]

one thing i have trouble with on this forum is 'one liners' often there is no explanation as to what the context of a weather related post means in the model thread, and it is frustrating to try and work out what is meant. OK, i can understand weather stuff, but many can't. they may want to, but without expanding on an explanation it's difficult to know what is meant.

Absolutely no offence meant to anyone here  

[MAF]

deleted

Edited January 28, 2021 by MAF

[MAF]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I see the GFS has done its first proper shift south on the 12z.. 

ECM also has shifted south ..

 

While Arpege had a major melt down ICON having non of it

 

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Diddly squat really lol!!! It is all up in the air.. On this one I think it won't go in our favour.. Maybe the odd chance of some back edge snow and certainly members more North of the region might catch a few rouge CMs.. 

The issue with under cutting cold is timing. The front is not really coming through at the best of times being mostly in day time hours plus there would be quite a lot of mixing going on .

Secondly it wont be like last weekend in that when the snow hit the cold was in place and everything that fell settled. Thats why places in my area and near by did so well.. The conversation rate of PPN to SNOW was very high.. 

and that is so much better an explanation than the first post