South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[alexisj9]

Anyone who hasn't should check out the storms thread. Later today might be interesting, as is always the case with storms, they might also not be.

Let's see what happens.

[Froze were the Days]

Eyes down for possibly the 7th cold rain event of this winter coming up on Saturday...not until I see those -10 uppers will I start to believe!

[Tim Bland]

Neto going for extreme north / west of region on sat, this likely to change if the ECM / UKV is anywhere near correct though....

Edited January 28, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Sparky68]

13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Neto going for extreme north / west of region on sat, this likely to change if the ECM / UKV is anywhere near correct though....

A shift 20 miles East would be nice

[SHM040519]

45 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Eyes down for possibly the 7th cold rain event of this winter coming up on Saturday...not until I see those -10 uppers will I start to believe!

I’m so excited for another cold rain event! It will be fab!

[Polaris]

Looks like West Midlands could get a fair amount on Saturday 

[Tom Jarvis]

42 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

A shift 20 miles East would be nice

A shift 100 miles south east would also be nice 

[Met4Cast]

Problem with Saturdays risk is that the colder air is further north, that's why we're seeing the rain turn readily to snow. 

If the low shifted further south & east, the colder air would be slow to undercut the band so a majority would still just see rainfall. Our best chance is for back edge snowfall as the band sinks southwards, those in the SE of the region though probably wont see the colder dew points moving in until the band clears, so I'm not holding much hope.

Our best chance was Sunday, but that band doesn't look likely to get east of Cornwall before it goes southwards now.

[Tim Bland]

NMM..

[Reefseeker]

This morning's walk was in a jacket in  honour of the warmer temperatures, although there was a definite keen breeze as we set off. Our garden has the pond of doom in it this morning - basically we know when there has been prolonged rainfall as the water table rises so high that we develop a pond across half of the lawn. One year the water also crept up some of our inside walls, cue anxious checking over breakfast.

We just about made it into the 'proper' snow fall last Sunday in Surbiton judging by the snow photographs from space I've seen on Nick F's Twitter. This weekend feels a lot more marginal so I'm not holding out hope and will be happy if those who missed our last week get some snow, but it currently seems a bit of an ask. Agree with others that last Sunday's correction north seemed unusual and we are all now crossing our fingers for a correction (by the right amount and type!) south/south east.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Reefseeker

[Polaris]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

NMM..

With the Pivot of Sunday’s snow over Rutland/N Midlands 

Anything is possible for Saturday. 
 

Don’t think I saw one model right up to Sundays event predict that. Oxfordshire up to MK I believe what most were going for. 

[Tim Bland]

Weather Pro just updated (using 06z ECM) goes for a dumping across north west of region...12cm! 

[Blazerblue]

Lunchtime walk a bust, flooded everywhere again. Only just dried out, now at least the 6th time since beginning of December, getting really bored of it now!

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Polaris said:

With the Pivot of Sunday’s snow over Rutland/N Midlands 

Anything is possible for Saturday. 
 

Don’t think I saw one model right up to Sundays event predict that. Oxfordshire up to MK I believe what most were going for. 

Don’t forget this is different...front is coming from south west and is vertical not a horizontal line from the west like on Sunday. Sunday was very unique. Sat is more like the events that go south nearer the time. Wouldn’t be surprised if it went from south west up to MK  before stalling / dying out 

[lawrenk]

Personally, I’m not fussed about the coming weekend. Judging by this mornings runs it’s the following weekend onwards where the fun and games might really start.

[Polaris]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Don’t forget this is different...front is coming from south west and is vertical not a horizontal line from the west like on Sunday. Sunday was very unique. Sat is more like the events that go south nearer the time. Wouldn’t be surprised if it went from south west up to MK  before stalling / dying out 

Yes that’s true Tim. 
 

Just Seems very odd given , that the METO have the Snow Warning right up to Huddersfield. 
 

As you say history tells us these events always pull well south. Going to be changes/cancellation of that warning for sure. 
 

[NewEra21]

8 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Personally, I’m not fussed about the coming weekend. Judging by this mornings runs it’s the following weekend onwards where the fun and games might really start.

100% agree! Of course I'd like to see snow falling but it's currently just so wet and muddy, and it's not going to be cold enough overall for anything to last long other than a slush/mud fest.

The real interest is from the end of next week onwards, let's see if we can get those proper cold -10 and lower uppers in. With no more of this marginal snow/slush/mud fest! 

[Badgers01]

Back home in Cobham it’s noticeable how high the water table is particularly around Esher Common - the Mole is pretty high too if we have any more significant rain flooding could become a real problem .... 

[Wimbledon88]

2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

100% agree! Of course I'd like to see snow falling but it's currently just so wet and muddy, and it's not going to be cold enough overall for anything to last long other than a slush/mud fest.

The real interest is from the end of next week onwards, let's see if we can get those proper cold -10 and lower uppers in. With no more of this marginal snow/slush/mud fest! 

Agree with both these posts. This weekend is of no interest to me snow wise. Even if it does snow temps back up to 12c early next week. From Feb 1st certainly looks very interesting. Always fancied Feb as the month that would deliver. 

Certainly a very wet spell just now. 14mm last night. Allotment looking ready for some serious work. Over there a while ago with a mate, day off work, and its certainly a tad wet and muddy. 13c.Ideal for outdoors working. 

[Daniel*]

I think the air is cold enough, my main issue is dew points ECM has them hovering around 1°C anyway latest ECM was a shift south similarly to ARPEGE more of SE in firing.

[Polaris]

Latest BBC TV forecast 

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Latest BBC TV forecast 

100% ECM data that, which seems to count as all solid precip as snow, i.e sleet. 

Really, really don't understand why the BBC insist on using raw model fields for forecasts like this. 

[MAF]

it's all so confusing at the moment. will it, won't it? who knows. personally i will look out the window and decide which outdoor wear to put on come the day. I am so frustrated with current forecasts, they are really not getting to grips with the next 24 - 48 hours, let alone 72+ hours. 

currently it's dry, mild, cloudy and little breeze. not sure how the temps are going to drop 5-8 degrees in the next day or so to make it conducive for snow come Sat/Sun as some forecasters are portraying

 

 

[Polaris]

4 minutes ago, MAF said:

it's all so confusing at the moment. will it, won't it? who knows. personally i will look out the window and decide which outdoor wear to put on come the day. I am so frustrated with current forecasts, they are really not getting to grips with the next 24 - 48 hours, let alone 72+ hours. 

currently it's dry, mild, cloudy and little breeze. not sure how the temps are going to drop 5-8 degrees in the next day or so to make it conducive for snow come Sat/Sun as some forecasters are portraying

 

 

Just like it went from minus temperatures here with thick snow on the ground to Double figure temperatures with Green in 24hrs. Easy doable 

I agree, look out of the window Saturday. Models are just guidance.

anything is possible. 

[zubzero]

Will be right on the dividing line yet again, never known a Winter like it.