South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, MAF said:

 

and that is so much better an explanation than the first post  

I kinda like to answer people on a one to one like I have just done... 

 

Some posters that are more experienced than myself can then help out and respond to people if say im away from the computer or get to many questions. I do get some PMs sometimes as well that I take care to answer ...

I also dont like to fill the thread with stuff some people might look at and say "yeh we know" LOL

[Coopsy]

Apologies if this has been said previously , I haven’t had a chance to look back at the posts.

The fax charts have the front quite a lot way further south than some forecasts elsewhere.(meaning colder further south=higher chance of snow)

Also with regards to timing if you looked at last weeks forecast just 24 hours out, the arrival changed by about 3 hours.

What this means is there’s everything to play for as further south=better snow chances, and better timing of arrival=better snow chances. Also some models are showing, like Hermoine, that the SE gets some snow. 

Im afraid it’s going to be a very similar situation of sit and see , hoping for upgrades and a direct hit. 50/50 IMO 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Coopsy

[Polaris]

After looking at the latest charts - for our region (at the moment) Luton across to the chilterns up to Milton Keynes looks a fair bet to at least see a noticeable covering.
 

This of course could move, further North, further East or Further South. 
 

Even with further corrections South Northern Home Counties could still pick up a covering. 
 

Those who are continually looking for corrections South, be aware as DP’s are still forecast to be on the wrong side for snowfall and areas south of the river will just end up with sleet/rain 

London, Kent, southern counties need the ppn to go north as a change over to snow is more likely for a few hours as it clears away.

If it bottles South then London Southwards will just end up with sleet at best mirroring a wet SW England simply because you won’t get the mixing out of high DP’s  
 

 

[E17boy]

2 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Apologies if this has been said previously , I haven’t had a chance to look back at the posts.

The fax charts have the front quite a lot way further south than some forecasts elsewhere.

Also with regards to timing if you looked at last weeks forecast just 24 hours out, the arrival changed by about 3 hours.

What this means is there’s everything to play for as further south=better snow chances, and better timing of arrival=better snow chances. Also some models are showing, like Hermoine, that the SE gets some snow. 

Im afraid it’s going to be a very similar situation of sit and see , hoping for upgrades and a direct hit. 50/50 IMO 

Hi Good Evening peeps

Hope everyone is well and safe. Here we are again a week on and we got another snow event  or will it be a non-event. Here in Walthamstow last Sunday the snow did settle but it was a very thin covering and by late afternoon it had mostly disappeared from the pavements. Looks like this Saturdays event is on a knife edge again and this time we are looking at the daylight hours rather than the morning from the last event. I don't think anything will be resolved till tomorrow evening , but from past experience I have seen heavy snow fall on wet ground and then finally start settling ( but of course this all depends on the surface temperatures), 

What is interesting me at the moment is the possibility of an Easterly developing from late next week. Now if this comes off and we get this sustained ,then I think us lot here in the Southeast will not have to get jealous about folks up north. In my mind I am dreaming of North Sea convection and heavy snow showers moving inland with a wind chill. This is just a dream and I hope things do go in this direction.

Back to the closer timeframe fingers crossed for the weekend. The chase is on again.

stay safe all and families

regards

[Ben M]

This has got to be one of the most frustrating winters ever,  I think this will be my fourth marginal event with a fine line between rain and snow. This sort of pattern is worse than mild and zonal, at least you know where you are with that, with this it's just constantly teasing but never delivering the goods!! Maybe this Saturday's event will be the one to break the pattern so far but I'm not getting my hopes up lol 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Ben M

[Southender]

Just seen this in the MAD thread. Perfect example of why any wind from the East or South will make it very difficult for snow in our part of the world right now. Particularly on the coasts

We need a proper Siberian express and frigid continent to override this
 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Southender

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Urgh.. Chase is well an truly on after seeing the latest met Office video forecast.. 1-2cm possible around the Heathrow area and home counties.. 

I know thats like a fart in a thunderstorm to most but I love seeing snow fall 

[southbank]

11 minutes ago, Southender said:

Just seen this in the MAD thread. Perfect example of why any wind from the East or South will make it very difficult for snow in our part of the world right now. Particularly on the coasts

We need a proper Siberian express and frigid continent to override this
 

 

Hoping some sort of trend that had appeared on the NWP continues - maybe. Just maybe something of interest around 7th feb onwards ( but I’ve seen potential easterly implode within 72 hours) but if we do get an opportunity of -16 /20 over the warm sea ———-

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Reefseeker said:

Thank you so much, that is very kind:) Join in on the channel any time with a comment as I try to respond to everyone (the nice ones anyway!). It's a great hobby actually and there are people from all over the world that watch the videos - it's almost like an international pen pal club, for modern times!

It's grey and raining here.....:(

Sorry this is not weather related, but my son has just started his own channel called Travelling Everard and he has done walks around Cambs/Beds + 1 in London where he was earlier doing a site survey. All this of course before the last Lockdown happened. I will get him to look at your channel as he is interested in this sort of thing.

Getting back on topic. Here in mid Essex we have a lot of flooding over the fields and the parks are too muddy to walk in apart from the footpaths on which you have to walk around the puddles.

I am looking forward to seeing how the forthcoming cold spell unfolds. There is a general consensus among the models that it is going to happen, but whether it is a polar blast or a BFTE is uncertain. On the MAD thread there are the usual suspects who wish to pour hot water (not cold!) on what the models show and look to likely ways it will break down, before it has even arrived. 

Kind Regards

Dave 

[Lampostwatcher]

15 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Urgh.. Chase is well an truly on after seeing the latest met Office video forecast.. 1-2cm possible around the Heathrow area and home counties.. 

I know thats like a fart in a thunderstorm to most but I love seeing snow fall 

Yes I saw that it was quite an interesting forcast 

He wasn't sure at all how far north 

And yes did mention 1-2cms around London 

I think the warning could be extended further southeast nearer the time 

We are still in the game for Saturday 

Sunday was similar 

[Snowman31]

ECMF further south 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Snowman31

[Lampostwatcher]

9 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

ECMF further south 

Bank that 

Gfs 

And met office forcast had similar 

[Polaris]

9 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

ECMF further south 

You don’t want that any further south. DP’s will be too high to counteract with the PPN and produce rain/sleet 

[Snowman31]

6 minutes ago, Polaris said:

You don’t want that any further south. DP’s will be too high to counteract with the PPN and produce rain/sleet 

To be honest not expecting much considering the temperatures and dew points. Really want an easterly to get away from all this marginal stuff. Fed up of it a bit now. 

[Downpour]

55 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi Good Evening peeps

Hope everyone is well and safe. Here we are again a week on and we got another snow event  or will it be a non-event. Here in Walthamstow last Sunday the snow did settle but it was a very thin covering and by late afternoon it had mostly disappeared from the pavements. Looks like this Saturdays event is on a knife edge again and this time we are looking at the daylight hours rather than the morning from the last event. I don't think anything will be resolved till tomorrow evening , but from past experience I have seen heavy snow fall on wet ground and then finally start settling ( but of course this all depends on the surface temperatures), 

What is interesting me at the moment is the possibility of an Easterly developing from late next week. Now if this comes off and we get this sustained ,then I think us lot here in the Southeast will not have to get jealous about folks up north. In my mind I am dreaming of North Sea convection and heavy snow showers moving inland with a wind chill. This is just a dream and I hope things do go in this direction.

Back to the closer timeframe fingers crossed for the weekend. The chase is on again.

stay safe all and families

regards

I hope you got up to High Beach in Epping Forest as advised?? 6-7cm and was positively Narnian!

Great snow day on Sunday up there. 

[Downpour]

28 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Yes I saw that it was quite an interesting forcast 

He wasn't sure at all how far north 

And yes did mention 1-2cms around London 

I think the warning could be extended further southeast nearer the time 

We are still in the game for Saturday 

Sunday was similar 

If we get snow again this weekend, that will be three weekends in a row with lying snow in Epping Forest. 
 

Not too shabby!

[Polaris]

7 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

To be honest not expecting much considering the temperatures and dew points. Really want an easterly to get away from all this marginal stuff. Fed up of it a bit now. 

Marginal stuff is a hella lot better than mild Atlantic crap.
For sure an easterly would be first choice but whilst February tries to deliver I’ll take marginal over Atlantic crap any day.  

[clark3r]

More interested in period 05 feb to around 11 feb possible -10 uppers from east should do the job for, obviously along way off atm, this weekend can’t see anything than cold rain again for me on the coast 

[Hotspur62]

Been a balmy day here in Locksbottom and we hit 11.6 here and can honestly say was first day this calendar year it was enjoyable to work outside and nice not to feel cold.The possible snow event Saturday reminds me a bit of I think it was December 2017(a Sunday).I think it will be a North of the Thames event with northern Home Counties spreading across to the Midlands.I think South of the Thames it will be more of a wintry mess but places with elevation like North Downs look like they may get a covering(450ft plus I guess snow line).This is just my hunch and differences of just 30 miles north and south are still quite likely in the next 24 hours and like last Sunday it will probably turn into a nowcasting event anyway

 

stay safe

[Polaris]

Would be lovely if this actually happened. 

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, E17boy said:

Hi Good Evening peeps

Hope everyone is well and safe. Here we are again a week on and we got another snow event  or will it be a non-event. Here in Walthamstow last Sunday the snow did settle but it was a very thin covering and by late afternoon it had mostly disappeared from the pavements. Looks like this Saturdays event is on a knife edge again and this time we are looking at the daylight hours rather than the morning from the last event. I don't think anything will be resolved till tomorrow evening , but from past experience I have seen heavy snow fall on wet ground and then finally start settling ( but of course this all depends on the surface temperatures), 

What is interesting me at the moment is the possibility of an Easterly developing from late next week. Now if this comes off and we get this sustained ,then I think us lot here in the Southeast will not have to get jealous about folks up north. In my mind I am dreaming of North Sea convection and heavy snow showers moving inland with a wind chill. This is just a dream and I hope things do go in this direction.

Back to the closer timeframe fingers crossed for the weekend. The chase is on again.

stay safe all and families

regards

The models are looking fairly consistent in their thoughts of an easterly. Even though it’s far out to have everyone on the same page is where it’s a good starting point.  

Where that easterly lands is up for debate too ie too far north and we don’t benefit as much. But the trend as they say looks good.

If that can get set up and the air cold enough then as you say convection is almost everyone’s friends. 

[Polaris]

5 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Been a balmy day here in Locksbottom and we hit 11.6 here and can honestly say was first day this calendar year it was enjoyable to work outside and nice not to feel cold.The possible snow event Saturday reminds me a bit of I think it was December 2017(a Sunday).I think it will be a North of the Thames event with northern Home Counties spreading across to the Midlands.I think South of the Thames it will be more of a wintry mess but places with elevation like North Downs look like they may get a covering(450ft plus I guess snow line).This is just my hunch and differences of just 30 miles north and south are still quite likely in the next 24 hours and like last Sunday it will probably turn into a nowcasting event anyway

 

stay safe

As things stand with Meto warnings, current charts id agree. 
 

But a nudge 30 miles south brings most of the region into play. History tells us this is a high possibility 

Dont want any further shifts south in tomorrow’s charts otherwise it’s a rain/sleet event with ppn moving south of London 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Polaris

[Tim Bland]

27 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Would be lovely if this actually happened. 

You’re  in a good spot , did you get much there on Sunday? Saw Northampton did very well 

[Freeze]

33 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Marginal stuff is a hella lot better than mild Atlantic crap.
For sure an easterly would be first choice but whilst February tries to deliver I’ll take marginal over Atlantic crap any day.  

I'd rather mild atlantic crap, I'm going to get rain either way, and saves me from severe jealousy lol

[Number 23]

Any of my fellow Essex / Kent crew up for a sleety mix this weekend? 

Thought not.