Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[winterof79]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I apologise for not posting ones ahead of it, I should have said it in the post before.. Some decent accumulations showing over high ground, Pennines etc. UKV pretty much mirrors the current warnings in place.

Thanks that's very helpful. Hope everyone sees some snow next week. 

[MJB]

Nothing to grumble about

[Ice Day]

Highly enjoyable pub run, finally getting some low uppers across the north sea around day 11 ()

  

Really good run for the UK as a whole, not so much for the southerners.  I think we'll need to be a bit more patient, but we're still in the game.

[ICE COLD]

-24 850s into scandi . 

[Mike Poole]

GFS T252, see how absorbing the remnants of the arctic high is so important in getting the angle, and lack of interruptions, right to draw the cold:

GFS 252 850s:

 

 

[nick sussex]

If the Greenie ridge remains blocked in and combined with the Arctic high I’d be quite optimistic and I’m not known for that ! 

You can see from the ECM it allows the ridge  to escape. The GFS 18hrs run knocks the ECM out of the park in terms of potential .

We still have to negotiate the early timeframe and the UKMO op has no support so let’s hope it joins the party tomorrow .

[Griff]

Just now, Notty said:

Nice view of the cold coming our way - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=1&carte=1

JFF lovely isn't it...  

Guaranteed to cue some moans somewhere. 

Good night all. 

[Notty]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

-24 850s into scandi . 

and heading our way (in my dreams)

[sheikhy]

Aaahh the good old pub run!!only to bring us back down in the morning!!

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I would snap your arm of for the pub run . And no I don’t live in the north

Me too. I’m liking where this run is headed. Colder and colder going forward.

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Will be a different set of balls in the next run .....

Exactly.

Its the trend we want, not how much snow or rain will be IMBY  esp the range being talked about.

[feb1991blizzard]

Wont happen on this run but look how close real cold is - that is only 4c warmer than the air over Norway in Jan 1987, and in the words of Gavin Partridge, the coldest single spell of weather since 1740 which was a 'ferociously cold winter' the Jan 1740 was a full 2.2c colder than Dec 2010.

[Griff]

PS

Do check out the tweet thread, PV Denis reckons a split will occur... 

See you tomorrow! 

[Trom]

4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

I think the issue here is SSW expectations versus what the models are so far delivering .

Its a bit like expecting a gift to be a weekend at the Dorchester and then getting booked into the Premier Inn instead .

If the SSW had never happened then expectations would be much lower , that’s not to say that we won’t see some colder synoptics in future runs .

I think we’re currently in a holding pattern . 

I think it's worth noting that day 20 (sorry 20th Jan) is actually only 14 days post SSW.  This would be a very quick trop response to downwelling.  So I'm still hoping for better synoptics in future runs.  Plus we have continued warming events in the strat.  Nothing's guaranteed but it should be an interesting journey into Feb.  

Edit Not to say we're not seeing a response to the SSW just that it's still early days.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Trom

[ICE COLD]

Lovely lovely lovely . Really good run this . 

[danthetan]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Highly enjoyable pub run, finally getting some low uppers across the north sea around day 11 ()

  

Really good run for the UK as a whole, not so much for the southerners.  I think we'll need to be a bit more patient, but we're still in the game.

have a look at the 2M temperatures -4 @13.00 in parts of wales. 

[chris55]

4 hours ago, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z at t168 is fantastic. What a relief!

Surely we can now call this a Greenland High (albeit a southern Greenland High) rather than an Atlantic ridge.....(168 is within the realms of the more reliable)

Where has Steve Murr disappeared to? Surely this is the kind of pattern we were looking for when chatting on Sunday.

Is it now Classed as a cut off high with a flow underneath. Looks like it to my experienced, but non expert eye. 

[chionomaniac]

I know this is ECM day 10, but I see this as reinforcement of the Greenland block.  Maybe a bit west based but maybe not.just a nice trend for continuation of colder Synoptics. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just joined in after the footy(well done man utd)

the gfs is much more improved than the 12z

at least we have a -8 across the country instead of -6,an upgrade for sure...

let me just say that we have had this pattern showing for days now with the GHP and trough to the N/NE marked out by the anomalies,i would say that we are getting on to a nailed pattern now,don't worry about the uppers as this is a worry all the time and the temps always get colder nearer the time,look at the last cold snap/spell when everyone was screaming marginality when in fact that wasn't the case in favored spots as you know,yes the south hasn't had much in terms of getting up on that league table but i think that your time will come in the next week to two weeks

perhaps people are being too impatient and i get that and i feel sorry for you lot further south,hang on in there pals and i hope your time comes,even i didn't get much snow from the last event but i am glad others got the outcome

a final briefing before i turn in(up at 5am)...

the output is looking increasingly good now,...check

the anomalies are also looking good,..check

the reliable time frame is just in range now for a Greenland hp cell,...check

also in the reliable is the trough/s to our west are not phasing(on most models),...check

i am 70% confident that this evolution will be the right one,chaos is niggling me but SSW influenced.

and as i typed all that,the 18z is a peach...

 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Cheshire Freeze]

Excellent 18z GFS run. Uppers and thicknesses a tad lower than the ECM 12z operational means less marginality as the run progresses.

Those small differences will make a big difference to the weather on the ground.

Edited January 12, 2021 by CreweCold

[Nick F]

That stubborn low between Scotland and Norway from Weds next week really irks me by stopping the extreme cold over northern Scandi from heading SW to the UK, A lee low that forms from the dense cold air descended from the mountainous terrain of Norway.

Other than that, looking good on the 18z GFS, plenty of disturbances moving inland and convection over sea to bring snow opportunities and a locked in pattern with the Greenland block and dense deep cold over NE Europe, we could be kept in the freezer until end of January at least, if the arctic high and influence of Greenland block could push further into Norwegian Sea and northern Scandi - we could see some of that deep cold reach us eventually too.

[ALL ABOARD]

GFS 18z sticks to fingers up at my query as to why the siberian vortex didn't want to visit anymore and marches the polar bears straight towards us. 

Ice ice baby? 

[Purga]

An incredible NH chart if ever there was one!

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Purga

[Gadje]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T252, see how absorbing the remnants of the arctic high is so important in getting the angle, and lack of interruptions, right to draw the cold:

GFS 252 850s:

 

 

The thing to me from that is the Atlantic is done.

[feb1991blizzard]

Another terrible run on the wrong side of marginal!!

And by the way Devon gets 6 inches of snow.

Edited January 12, 2021 by feb1991blizzard