Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thankyou!

Some of the bed wetting on here this evening is laughable.

And thats coming from Net weathers number one bed wetter !!

 

Eh think both sides to the clustercluck in this thread have points. 

Those in the South/SE was burned on the last one, when they spoke up about the uppers they where told that things like; it will change; it will further east; the uppers will upgraded etc. Yet rain or little snow fell with those further north getting some alright falls to add salt to the wound. At the same time, famous falls have come from uppers of -2 -4. So there's always that. 

But for those on the cold side of marginal could have an absolute field day!

 

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it even gona make it to the midlands at this rate

Not if the gfs is correct. As snow anyway

[radiohead]

At only 108 hours on the GFS, the deep low southwest of Iceland that was on the 12Z is now almost non-existent on the 18Z...

[Weathizard]

Fairly large difference in that low at day 5.... #NoPhase

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Downpour said:

Will be another cold rain fest for the majority of the UK population as things stand. Not cold enough, again. 850s too warm, again. 

Well - I guess it all depends how you read the charts and what the purpose of logging in here is. If these 850s are not low enough for you as an EPS ensemble average at 240h

and GEFS ensemble mean 2m temperature forecasts like this at 240h are seen as an automatic signal for rain (06z run)

 

and a vortex profile like this at 240h

is also only a signal for rain then you are going to be disappointed 9 winters out of 10. Or celebrate the arrival of cold rain in this context. Whatever floats your boat. Me - I'll stick to glass half. Living life any other way to me seems pretty pointless.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Catacol

[Griff]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Fairly large difference in that low at day 5.... #NoPhase

Yes, I'm quite surprised  

[Weathizard]

Finally the EC AND GFS in the same boat? Be interesting to see where this goes from here

[TSNWK]

Fairly large difference here at 144. Trough / low that is east of Scotland was a rounder low of the west coast of Scotland. Nice move east...

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by TSNWK

[Met4Cast]

Before the usual riff raff log in and start complaining that 850hPa temperatures are 0.2c too warm, this is a very good run from the GFS.

More in-line with the earlier GEFS suite and very similar to the ECM, if not a touch better.

[Frostbite1980]

Where that low to the southwest going

Edited January 12, 2021 by Frostbite1980

[ALL ABOARD]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Before the usual riff raff log in and start complaining that 850hPa temperatures are 0.2c too warm, this is a very good run from the GFS.

More in-line with the earlier GEFS suite and very similar to the ECM, if not a touch better.

Yes looking good. 

Nice little slider next Monday too. 

[radiohead]

Possible flooding concerns for the south on the 18Z with  a trailing front moving in from the Atlantic that could bring a long period of heavy rain...but could turn to heavy snow further north later...

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by radiohead

[Mike Poole]

Have to say, GFS 18z looks really well directed at T168, promising:

[Eskimo]

That will do nicely - i mean, not for the south mind you.

[A Frayed Knot]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

That will do nicely - i mean, not for the south mind you.

Sweet for South Wales.  Meant most of Wales. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by A Frayed Knot
Rewriting

[Eskimo]

Aint gonna happen is it. When was the last time we saw 24 hours of heavy snow?


 

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

That will do nicely - i mean, not for the south mind you.

Same old just for fun at this range though...

[Bartlett High]

Just now, Eskimo said:

Aint gonna happen is it. When was the last time we saw 24 hours of heavy snow?


 

Looks nice though. 

[Djdazzle]

The Iberian heights are spoiling it again. Complete rain fest for most as that low slides in. It’s not even marginal!

Edited January 12, 2021 by Djdazzle

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Before the usual riff raff log in and start complaining that 850hPa temperatures are 0.2c too warm, this is a very good run from the GFS.

More in-line with the earlier GEFS suite and very similar to the ECM, if not a touch better.

For crying out loud. Why the dig? Is it really needed? Why not just post what other than that is actually a good post and leave the rest of the nonsense out of it. 

sorry for the mini rant (which isn’t aimed just at you) but it’s getting niggly in here and there just isn’t any reason for it. We saw the other night where it leads so let’s just start being a bit more respectful or else use the ignore button.

 

[Johnp]

Obviously now the para is not as good

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The Iberian heights are spoiling it again. Complete rain fest for most as that low slides in. It’s not even magical!

That has to be an IMBY post , if it isn't its a very poor one 

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The Iberian heights are spoiling it again. Complete rain fest for most as that low slides in. It’s not even magical!

Spoiling it for who? The Midlands north would be under feet of snow 

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The Iberian heights are spoiling it again. Complete rain fest for most as that low slides in. It’s not even marginal!

Dear me give it chance. How many times it’s all about the trend at this stage 

[radiohead]

Wales hits the snow jackpot on the 18Z GFS