Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[ICE COLD]

Happy that the 18z keeps the faith . Nice run so far . 
 

T156

[ICE COLD]

A million miles better than the ECM at T168 . Stark 

[MJB]

18z colder than the 12z 

Looking ok for a week today 

[AFCBSNOW]

I have been lurking on and off of here for years, and this year has piqued my interest far more than any have previously.  The fact that our 'best' model ECM, can wobble like it did, IMHO completely against all other signals, to my mind shows just how hard it has been for this event to be modelled.  Anyway the Pub run looks like delivering again so I will leave it at that.  Keep the great commentary going guys.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is just OK but we need that Genoa low to advect cold more west not the Iberian one otherwise the high could sink into Europe,lets see what happens...

Edited January 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[ICE COLD]

Please be right gfs and please ECM op switch in the morning

[MJB]

Snow showers hitting the East 

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I would rather take the word of the meto than anyone on here or the free models. 

They were ridiculed prior to NY when they called a more UK based high....guess what happened! 

The update was punchy, so MOGREPS must be showing a consistently strong signal along with all the other bit they see that we do not. The ECM has not been great this winter in my opinion, usually playing catch up or overreacting.....a little like GFS of old. It could be right, but I expect a different looking 0z at which point another model will then probably jump ship!

Thank God someone flagged it..the moggy #super com..against lower impact dynamicals..ie gfs ecm etc raws..they are merely playing catchup!!.some need some tramadol..and a chill pill to add...WE ARE going into the best part of winter 2020\2021..and perhaps a notable spell that may be remembered....up we go..!✌

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[Uncertainty]

Yes @Allseasons-siEarly days, but this GFS18z has the cold moving back south quicker than it’s 12z... looks a more secure evolution to cold than ECM /GEM

A good suite would at least take the battle into the morning when hopefully the models can regroup. Icon looked like it would go on to form at least a bog standard Scandi high. 
I reckon we’re gonna know by tomorrow night whether the initial ‘bite’ e.g after the midweek trough clears, leads to deep cold or not. Right now the models clearly don’t know, hence the huge array of outcomes.

Indeed, the change in jet profile on the 18z sees the Northern arm coming out of the states bifurcate more, leading to the Atlantic flow taking a near vertical angle, leading to a robust omega style block to the N of the U.K. 

 

It might not be massively snowy initially, but given the garbage the ECM just spat out, I’d take this evolution in a heartbeat...

Edited January 29, 2021 by Uncertainy

[MJB]

Do I sense a push from the NE ?

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is just OK but we need that Genoa low not the Iberian one otherwise the high could sink into Europe,lets see what happens...

I think the pinch point at T180 is here:

If the cold is cut off here, you won’t get the Genoa low. If it isn’t you will.  Knife edge on this one...

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

Well well gfs p now has a snow event for monday night tuesday and moves towards icon!!

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well well gfs p now has a snow event for monday night tuesday and moves towards icon!!

Turns back to rain quite quickly for most unfortunately .  GFSp goes quite far north with the snow tomorrow though so you could see some ..

[MJB]

Maybe we are going to have to focus on the NW ? This is WELL into FI , the HP is going the wrong way 

[IDO]

The ecm never quite got the colder uppers in at d7 countrywide before they seeped away east. The gfs gets them in and we get a cold pool by d9:

So the Arctic high did its bit and hopefully the ecm will not cut the cold flow off tomorrow. It is a puzzle from there as to the to and fro of the pattern so I would still await clarity from here as we have changed dramatically in 6h with the Atlantic profile:

18z>12z>

[sheikhy]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Turns back to rain quite quickly for most unfortunately .  GFSp goes quite far north with the snow tomorrow though so you could see some ..

That snow line is pushing slightly south and west on each gfs run for tuesday!!

[Chertseystreamer79]

Ecm will do the business in the morning.....meto been so spot on with there long range this year that it has to be. (Meto short range/finer details is just guess work like the rest of us)

[Tim Bland]

Just now, sheikhy said:

That snow line is pushing slightly south and west on each gfs run for tuesday!!

Not sure we can avoid snow turning back to rain though unfortunately. We could see a longer spell of snow first but there is definitely a warm up (hopefully just temporary) mid week

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Ecm will do the business in the morning.....meto been so spot on with there long range this year that it has to be. (Meto short range/finer details is just guess work like the rest of us)

I agree about MET , their recent update along with the BEEB monthly suggests Feb is going to be cold .......time will tell

[MJB]

Hugely different to the 0z 6z 12z , that is of some comfort knowing this is DEEP FI 

[tight isobar]

Gfs 18z tactical in evolution...and remember 850 hpa s are ironed out @144+ @hrs sso expect more fridgitity as we gain..... We are off n running...@real time...o&o..

Edited January 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[MJB]

Sharp frosts will accompany this HP 

[Mike Poole]

Better linkage between the burgeoning high with the arctic high at T114 on the // compared with T120 on the 12z:

[MJB]

Ridging North again ? 

[Allseasons-Si]

Hey up!!!,...what goin on here then...

get ready for a cracking fl,...mark my word.