Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[mountsbaysnow]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

You can say that again! This is one of the longest fetch easterlies I’ve ever seen. Can we be greedy and hope for another slight shift south tomorrow

Forgive me as im a bit of a novice, but do I see a deep low pressure coming from the states? Could that influence our cold set up?

[Griff]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Just a quickie and shall explain later but the low at +48 is too far NW by the 18Z GFS. Much more likely to be further SE. This is a positive because it would allow the E,ly to arrive earlier.

 

Yes and I'd imagine better track towards South 

[pyrotech]

31 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Intruguing bearing in mind we've an easterly and all the snow ends up in Wales

Thats  from a failed Atlantic attack, just one possibility, Snow fall and snow depth charts are pointless  at this stage for imby forecasting , What this is all showing is opportunities for just about everyone over the next few days if we can get that very cold air in place. Which seems more likely than not.  

[ICE COLD]

Hahahahahaha . Lol where are the gfs rampers now

[chionomaniac]

So, no point in looking at the later output. Big steps earlier in this run, that’s what counts. 

[IanT]

Just now, topo said:

This is writing history guys.. Enjoy it..

Truly epic event for many

History is in the past topo!

[MR_E]

Do we think the potential snow from the east would make it all the way to the left?

[Tim Bland]

How much snow will we get from the south west on this run ️

[Jambo Fowler]

Looks like Eastern Scotland and England both going to get quite a fair bit of snow over this weekend,  I certainly wouldn't mind getting a foot again like we did in Perth in 2010. Anyone got any up to date accumulation charts for the weekend for Scotland?

 

[MJB]

Potentially a BIG snow event if that came off , cold air in situ , a lot of moisture from the Atlantic 

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, MR_E said:

Do we think the potential snow from the east would make it all the way to the left?

Labour, socialists, communists? 

 

Edit: apologies @MR_E that was a cheap shot, I'm presuming you mean west? My advice would be to take this run as more positive but a lot of chopping and changing, all to be decided.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Griff

[JoeShmoe]

The GFS has been all over the show the last 48 hours to be fair while the UKMO and ECM have been very consistent. Let’s see whether they continue that trend tomorrow morning ..

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, mountsbaysnow said:

Forgive me as im a bit of a novice, but do I see a deep low pressure coming from the states? Could that influence our cold set up?

Not with a jet that's Southern favoured. 

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hahahahahaha . Lol where are the gfs rampers now

Yeah the GFS is leading the way eh . Quite a straight easterly eh .

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Singularity]

By dropping the UK low south much quicker during the weekend, this run asked a massive question of the other models that to be honest I didn’t expect to see come up again.

Makes you wonder if we might see that coupled with the Euro low further southeast. If that’s even possible when the two features are closer together. It might be. Hmm!

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

 

Potentially a BIG snow event if that came off , cold air in situ , a lot of moisture from the Atlantic 

That wont happen, it's the dart board low appearing again :p 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

So, no point in looking at the later output. Big steps earlier in this run, that’s what counts. 

Agree.. the south goes into green uppers again from around 180.. Shane as it looks good... the midlands upwards are really looking at a mememerable spell.. enjoy.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

14 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

This pattern should have us locked in for quite some time.

We have easterly winds stretching from Poland to near enough the east coast of the states, surely that's record breaking 

[markw2680]

Who else can’t keep up lol

its page after page but when it’s full of blues like these I’m not going to complain.

oh and we are talking only a few days away!!!

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Labour, socialists, communists? 

No just the Snowflakes!

[nick sussex]

There are still noticeable differences in the handling of the limpet shortwave and this feature seems to be loving its moment in the sun even though it’s driving coldies into a rollercoaster of emotions , more especially those in the southern half of the UK .

[TEITS]

I recommend using this model which only goes to +54 with regards to the low.

As you can see further SE than GFS and supported by the ECM.

I know I sound like  broken record but a trend SE is more likely with an E,ly arriving across all of the UK sooner.

[Garthvader]

8 minutes ago, MR_E said:

Do we think the potential snow from the east would make it all the way to the left?

How left would that be mate?

[markw2680]

Just look at these....I’m like a small boy at Christmas

[Matt Jones]

Good to see a much better run by the gfs18z. Breakdown is poor but more importantly it brings in a decent easterly spell for most and colder uppers for a time.