North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Had Worse]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Big downgrade, especially for higher elevation areas

A downgrade based on our wishes but as of now, no one knows which target it had in mind.

[WillinGlossop]

Looking colder frosty with wintry possibly snowy interest in forecast… I’d take that… currently cold out yet again couple of degrees colder than forecast… can see stars    and moon out with fog rolling in… feeling seasonal…  put more lights on trees out today… and had friend visit with her teddy bear pup …

off out with friends in glossop tomorrow evening … Oakwood, Harvey Leonard’s and a few places inbeteeen…. Supporting local places for local people… all triple vaxxed 

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, Joe Snow said:

Hi @Kasim Awan how do you see currently the coming potential cold spell panning out for the NW on a regional level? Will we be in the battleground? Most of interest for me is the potential of a bitter late Dec- start to January flagged up on recent model runs  

- Wiggle room on 23rd for adjustments  needs a watch. Currently hi res is all over the place so can not say what % chance is of it sliding into NW. Might not be enough cold momentum to lower snow line to lower levels but I wouldn't bet against it. I am interested by the stall and undercut potential this event has.

24th & 25th all up in arms if we get the low in the precip shadow looks fairly weak, there would be one but the 700mb flow & circular motion will allow for it to be eroded by clusters of convection

If we get a strong convective easterly in 26th onwards m6 east for big showers

 

If if if if if

Edited December 18, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[weatherobsuk]

14 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Was Phil Turton there?

I can't say for certain as i'm more familiar with a few of the members from Buxton MRT rather than Glossop, but it sounds like the Glossop MRT team had a early Saturday morning wake-up given the call was made at 8am. 

 

Rescue Callout Saturday 18/12/21

This morning the team was called out at 08.00 to assist Kinder MRT with a male walker who had sustained a lower leg injury. Fifteen members made their way to the edge path, near Sandy Heys, on Kinder Scout. After receiving treatment, the man was carried back to the Chunal / Monks Road junction, where he was handed over to a land ambulance crew. The team stood down at 12.15.

 

 

[Had Worse]

The fog has appeared and its a real pea souper.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Sorry Chaps.

12z's a Downgrade.

[Iceaxecrampon]

34 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

- Wiggle room on 23rd for adjustments  needs a watch. Currently hi res is all over the place so can not say what % chance is of it sliding into NW. Might not be enough cold momentum to lower snow line to lower levels but I wouldn't bet against it. I am interested by the stall and undercut potential this event has.

24th & 25th all up in arms if we get the low in the precip shadow looks fairly weak, there would be one but the 700mb flow & circular motion will allow for it to be eroded by clusters of convection

If we get a strong convective easterly in 26th onwards m6 east for big showers

 

If if if if if

Always thought this so early in the season.

12z GFS was a downgrade  - rollercoaster and all that etc etc....

[Iceaxecrampon]

36 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

 but I wouldn't bet against it. I am interested by the stall and undercut potential this event has.

Mind you - I like this bit....

[Chris.R]

For 6 am Christmas Day 12Z GFS is 3.4° colder than the 6Z. Less precipitation though. Pressure is 10.9 mb higher, freezing level is 200 m lower. This is for my location.
I am building an excel file.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Chris.R

[Iceaxecrampon]

39 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Looking colder frosty with wintry possibly snowy interest in forecast… I’d take that… currently cold out yet again couple of degrees colder than forecast… can see stars    and moon out with fog rolling in… feeling seasonal…  put more lights on trees out today… and had friend visit with her teddy bear pup …

off out with friends in glossop tomorrow evening … Oakwood, Harvey Leonard’s and a few places inbeteeen…. Supporting local places for local people… all triple vaxxed 

Enjoy - and make the most.

[chicken soup]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

- Wiggle room on 23rd for adjustments  needs a watch. Currently hi res is all over the place so can not say what % chance is of it sliding into NW. Might not be enough cold momentum to lower snow line to lower levels but I wouldn't bet against it. I am interested by the stall and undercut potential this event has.

24th & 25th all up in arms if we get the low in the precip shadow looks fairly weak, there would be one but the 700mb flow & circular motion will allow for it to be eroded by clusters of convection

If we get a strong convective easterly in 26th onwards m6 east for big showers

 

If if if if if

But my experience of Easterlies here are we just end up with scraps from showers due to pennines....that's blackburn area ..I know the likes of Oldham and Manchester do better.

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

But my experience of Easterlies here are we just end up with scraps from showers due to pennines....that's blackburn area ..I know the likes of Oldham and Manchester do better.

Oldham yes -> closer to North Sea, plus better positioned for Humber streamer. Also barely west of the Pennines, thinner high ground strip.

Manchester centre -> worse than Blackburn & much much worse than Oldham for complex reasons.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

But my experience of Easterlies here are we just end up with scraps from showers due to pennines....that's blackburn area ..I know the likes of Oldham and Manchester do better.

@Blackburn - odd rogue shower 1-3cm even in strong easterlies. 

[JeffC]

14 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

But my experience of Easterlies here are we just end up with scraps from showers due to pennines....that's blackburn area ..I know the likes of Oldham and Manchester do better.

Same here in SW Lake district...north easterly and we get a bit works it's way through, but a true easterly and the pennines and eastern fells put is in a rain shadow.

[Kasim Awan]

@WillinGlossop is this what you look like

[Had Worse]

35 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

@WillinGlossop is this what you look like

Close but @WillinGlossop has ears with piercings 

[WillinGlossop]

Foggy Glossop Christmas

[Joe Snow]

Well 18z is an eyebrow raiser to say the least... great to look at ( featuring a snowstorm for the south of the region no less) but not to get worked up over yet a variation on a very cold potentially snowy theme. Lots of potential as we try and close in on the cold!  

[WillinGlossop]

Just now, Joe Snow said:

Well 18z is an eyebrow raiser to say the least... great to look at ( featuring a snowstorm for the south of the region no less) but not to get worked up over yet a variation on a very cold potentially snowy theme. Lots of potential as we try and close in on the cold!  

Probability wise might be a south of the region event… but still too far away to  be honest.. time will tell…. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, JeffC said:

Same here in SW Lake district...north easterly and we get a bit works it's way through, but a true easterly and the pennines and eastern fells put is in a rain shadow.

Easterlies can deliver snowy outbreaks. 27 Jan 96 a good example we had 5 inches. 

[Had Worse]

Not getting hung up about it. Our time will come. They'll be fretting down there about how quick will it melt.

[severe snowstorm]

Latest fax chart for midday Wednesday. Is this some kind of competition for how many fronts they can cram into the chart!? Looks like a right forecaster's nightmare.

 

[Weather-history]

Misty/foggy

1.1C

[Day 10]

Morning guys & girls,

Doing this in bed on my phone so sorry if it's not perfect.

@Chris.R the setup we talked about the other day is back.

Another day another option, an upgrade for our region as a whole and we are now getting into slightly more reliable territory.

Thursday t96 & Friday Christmas Eve t120, we have fronts pushing through the region then getting pushed back south again.

Charts - ECM

Thursday - Rain in the south, snow in the north.

Friday Christmas Eve - Front dropping south, stalling as the cold air from the east undercuts. Classic setup.

Then I expect the cold to win out. The fronts above may not even make it here but tbh all that would mean is the cold locking in earlier with chances further down the line.

Very interesting spell on the way.....

Edited December 19, 2021 by Day 10

[Weather-history]

13 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Is there still an ignore feature somewhere?

I find it baffling, how and why some people joined this site in the first place, going off what they post. You would think it would be an interest in all things, meteorology. However, there a few  who seem to live in the COVID threads and post little elsewhere. Why are you on a weather site and post after post is just on COVID? 

You have nothing to post about the weather on a weather site but have a lot to post on a virus? It was the same when politics was disscussed on this site.