North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Joe Bloggs]

11 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:

BBC northwest didn't have any snow symbols at all for this weekend or next, but snow to come just not sure he said  

I saw that, the lovely Owain.

He didn’t seem convinced by his graphics though - he actually said “the graphics don’t show snow but there may be snow in coming days, I’ll keep you updated” . 

[Manchester_Sunset]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I saw that, the lovely Owain.

He didn’t seem convinced by his graphics though - he actually said “the graphics don’t show snow but there may be snow in coming days, I’ll keep you updated” . 

Might be a much better update tomorrow.

I thought those temperatures would of been a lot lower. 

[Day 10]

Pinched this pic from a local twitter feed taken the other day, what a pic of the Liverpool skyline taken from the Wirral!

 

[Geordiesnow]

8 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I saw that, the lovely Owain.

He didn’t seem convinced by his graphics though - he actually said “the graphics don’t show snow but there may be snow in coming days, I’ll keep you updated” . 

Nice too see a forecaster not just relying on their graphics as gospel. I know there is other forecasters who do that also but some do just say what the graphics are showing. 

BTW hopefully Chris Fawkes is on the TV forecasts again in the next day or so, true snow enthusiast and not afraid to show that in his forecast

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

Definitely mate, roughly to the left of the red line is horrendous for lying snow. Like you say probably up there with the worst Northern areas.

Didn't Southport get buried one winter? 2010 or 2009?

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Winter Hill said:

Ties in with the fax chart 

 

FAX charts about to come into there own, however, at this range too far out to call where sudden trough or convergence lines might park themselves. The one currently shown is further north than the precipitation maps..

As ever will be a case of nowcasting and looking at the radar maps. I'll be in the north and NE thread more than this one, as our weather is coming from the NE. Away from Cumbria it makes sense for NW members to dip in and out of the Yorkshire thread for indication of snow activity.

 

[SP1986]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

FAX charts about to come into there own, however, at this range too far out to call where sudden trough or convergence lines might park themselves. The one currently shown is further north than the precipitation maps..

As ever will be a case of nowcasting and looking at the radar maps. I'll be in the north and NE thread more than this one, as our weather is coming from the NE. Away from Cumbria it makes sense for NW members to dip in and out of the Yorkshire thread for indication of snow activity.

 

That's interesting, everything further south looks incredible marginal on that FAX chart. Even the 528 DAM zone is north of most of the NW at that point. I would have thought the cold air would be thoroughly entrenched everywhere by that point (12pm Sunday). 

[damianslaw]

35 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Nice too see a forecaster not just relying on their graphics as gospel. I know there is other forecasters who do that also but some do just say what the graphics are showing. 

BTW hopefully Chris Fawkes is on the TV forecasts again in the next day or so, true snow enthusiast and not afraid to show that in his forecast

We've lost the days when weather forecasters didn't stick to the script.. the countryfile forecast on Sunday was possibly the worse forecast ever, it gave no impression of a much colder trend at the end of the week, indeed it gave the opposite impression of balmy southerly airstream wading in. Those yellow colours in the depths of winter, very ill judged.. terrible. 

[SP1986]

The GFS 12z might have been considered poor by some members of another regional thread, but the cold air is definitely more entrenched on the GFS 12z than on that FAX chart. 

Compare decameter readings from the above FAX chart for the same time frame on the GFS output. 

ok so technically not a huge amount of difference but we do live in a questionable region when it comes to snow. Still in reality it shouldn't be so much of a problem here, should we get the precipitation required. 

However if you venture into the model thread on Saturday, you might want to leave very quickly if the FAX is correct. 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by SP1986

[dodge]

Many a time I've seen snow showers almost evaporate once they dumped their worth on places like Sheffield (direct easterly) and Leeds/Bradford (ENE) the Peak District normally finishes off any life left in the ones that make it this far.....However I think some of the showers especially in the more organised bands will be driven quite far west with such a strong biting wind.  Well that's what I'm hoping for anyway.

I think our largest falls might come from the eventual breakdown though.

Edited February 4, 2021 by dodge

[Spah1]

Wouldn’t mind some breakdown snow then a rebuild of the block. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Definitely mate, roughly to the left of the red line is horrendous for lying snow. Like you say probably up there with the worst Northern areas.

 

[SnowWatcher2]

Right!! come on, own up, who keeps robbing my snow??.. < had this yesterday,

Down to this today > , I'm expecting to see it returned or there will be issues.

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Alexis said:

Didn't Southport get buried one winter? 2010 or 2009?

Yes quite a lot of the barron coastline got battered 17/18th Dec 2010. It's not often though.

[iand61]

The mood in the mad thread seems a bit subdued tonight with talk of milder uppers turning snow to rain across the far south east corner at least but after trawling through several pages of everything from the SE is going to be buried to get the BBQ dusted off I’m still no wiser to what is happening anywhere north of Watford.

Hopefully all will be revealed on a daily basis by opening the curtains.

[SP1986]

22 minutes ago, iand61 said:

The mood in the mad thread seems a bit subdued tonight with talk of milder uppers turning snow to rain across the far south east corner at least but after trawling through several pages of everything from the SE is going to be buried to get the BBQ dusted off I’m still no wiser to what is happening anywhere north of Watford.

Hopefully all will be revealed on a daily basis by opening the curtains.

Exactly, I think trying to surmise what will happen up here is a waiting game.. and probably will be a nowcasting situation. 

Where the showers are coming from, the intensity, the trajectory, who will get them, who will miss out, will they make it over the Pennines in any great amount? etc etc etc. All unknown.

What is known, is that the SE contingent and the model thread are pooping themselves.... because there is a genuine chance it will go awry for them. 

But that won't change much for us to be honest.

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Exactly, I think trying to surmise what will happen up here is a waiting game.. and probably will be a nowcasting situation. 

Where the showers are coming from, the intensity, the trajectory, who will get them, who will miss out, will they make it over the Pennines in any great amount? etc etc etc. All unknown.

What is known, is that the SE contingent and the model thread are pooping themselves.... because there is a genuine chance it will go awry for them. 

But that won't change much for us to be honest.

Off for a gander....

[Frosty the Snowman]

28 minutes ago, iand61 said:

The mood in the mad thread seems a bit subdued tonight with talk of milder uppers turning snow to rain across the far south east corner at least but after trawling through several pages of everything from the SE is going to be buried to get the BBQ dusted off I’m still no wiser to what is happening anywhere north of Watford.

Hopefully all will be revealed on a daily basis by opening the curtains.

To be fair a lot of what happens north of Watford is co-dependent on what happens for the SE Corner, if they're panicking you should probably buy a sledge. 

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Exactly, I think trying to surmise what will happen up here is a waiting game.. and probably will be a nowcasting situation. 

Where the showers are coming from, the intensity, the trajectory, who will get them, who will miss out, will they make it over the Pennines in any great amount? etc etc etc. All unknown.

What is known, is that the SE contingent and the model thread are pooping themselves.... because there is a genuine chance it will go awry for them. 

But that won't change much for us to be honest.

I’m struggling to work out how much convection there’ll be. I’m assuming there’ll be significant showers using the basic assumption that there’s a) a pressure gradient b) very cold uppers.

I agree there’s a lot of uncertainty at the moment and it isn’t always as simple as I’ve described above. 

[SP1986]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I’m struggling to work out how much convection there’ll be. I’m assuming there’ll be significant showers using the basic assumption that there’s a) a pressure gradient b) very cold uppers.

I agree there’s a lot of uncertainty at the moment and it isn’t always as simple as I’ve described above. 

I would imagine so, we'll keep on watching. I think showers will make it across but may weaken a lot, but that doesn't mean they wont be useful. (that's pretty what most of the precipitation maps show anyway)

[Joe Bloggs]

What a chart for T+78. A cause for celebration. I’d genuinely be very surprised if it was dry. 
 

[hailseizertoo]

As a proper lurker, and most definitely not as well informed as you guys, is it possible that A) the precipitation coming in Saturday daytime can stall or arrive later, whilst the colder air makes it's way over, or B) this colder air mass will arrive earlier than forecast, to help turn the rain to snow later on Saturday? 

Here's hoping. Stay safe guys.

Edited February 4, 2021 by hailseizertoo

[Frosty the Snowman]

 

Look at the kink over the NW at T72 

 

[IM NOT REALLY HERE]

If I remember correctly, showers coming from slightly south of east rarely make it to my location but showers slightly north of east usually do. Maybe somebody could correct me? 

[damianslaw]

I was dismissing BBC forecast earlier, this evening long range one for Monday and Tursday showed most if the convective activity for N England and E Scotland with showers easily making it to our region, makes complete sense.