Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Would love to see the 2m temps when you post the ensemble graph in a while and dew points!!thing is these changes happenes very early at 60 hours!!!2 things i take from that is firstly maybe gfs is taking into account the cold dense air across the uk is not gona be as easy to shift and secondly underestimating the cold scandi high!!!

Yes please para at 180!

 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes please para at 180!

 

IF AND I SAY IF both the gfss are correct and the ukmo and ecm improve later then this could be a good day for us cold lovers after nearly 3 days of downgrades!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I expect @feb1991blizzard to pop up soon with this chart at 198 on the OP

Wrong - i've popped up with a 198 of the para instead!

Although having said that, initially i though the para was a better bet by 300 to show an E'ly, not sure now, the op might be better longer range.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

IF AND I SAY IF both the gfss are correct and the ukmo and ecm improve later then this could be a good day for us cold lovers after nearly 3 days of downgrades!!!

Mate, when the met office update didn't change yesterday, I thought it was a big sign... Didn't really get any attention in the met office thread.

It's like a classic 80's pattern, just need more widespread snow

OP at 252.

 

[Frigid]

Much better than 00Z. Low sinking south and cold incoming

  

 

[Jayces]

2 hours ago, JimBob said:

The models have further firmed up on the milder trend for next week, large parts of the UK into double digit temperatures by early next week. 

I'd be cautions about taking anything beyond a few days as gospel. As much as I enjoy the sunshine the models a few days ago were showing rising temps from tomorrow onward for me here in London but that's now been delayed until the start of next week. It certainly looks like there will be a milder incursion but I'm sceptical of double digit temps anywhere in the UK let alone large parts. But the weather will as always do what it does so only time will tell.

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

Much better than 00Z. Low sinking south and cold incoming

  

 

Nothing beats a cold block. Once it is there it takes a lot of shifting, especially if a big Scandi High is sat there too. Could take a 200mph jet blowing straight at the block or spring to shift it

[Frigid]

[IDO]

It is weird that the gfs op is doing what we expect when the Atlantic low hits the cold block to our east, and yet the ecm being progressive with that the Atlantic? The gfs is what would be ideal, the low stalling with cold air in the east and the high/ridge being driven north by WAA?

d11 on the 06z gfs op: 

Certainly, interesting model watching as to which model is now trending correctly?

[Battleground Snow]

Mean and control much improved at 144.

Op cold pool at 282

[Scandinavian High.]

I don’t think winter is done with us yet 

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

It is weird that the gfs op is doing what we expect when the Atlantic low hits the cold block to our east, and yet the ecm being progressive with that the Atlantic? The gfs is what would be ideal, the low stalling with cold air in the east and the high/ridge being driven north by WAA?

d11 on the 06z gfs op: 

Certainly, interesting model watching as to which model is now trending correctly?

I always thought the GFS was the most progressive and Atlantic biased of the main models but then ECM didn't even have our current cold spell on its charts until almost the last minute. Maybe the same will happen again

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean and control much improved at 144.

Op cold pool at 282

Thats all the gfss now improved!!!!!!

[Frigid]

With that much warm air advection, cold weather is inevitable! Hoping more models hop onto this 

[Updated_Weather]

I mean I did say.. I wasn’t buying this mild spell, it just didn’t seem right? Models do usually underestimate a cold block.. takes a while to find the right pattern, yes we may be going less cold for a bit, but after that is to play for.. double digit temps, we will see.. can’t call it at this stage. 
hope for more of the same from ECM and UKMO later

[SqueakheartLW]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mean and control much improved at 144.

Op cold pool at 282

 

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thats all the gfss now improved!!!!!!

Also good news is that both op and control appear to be close to the ensemble mean so looking like a likely outcome

[topo]

First time that I see accumulated snowfall out of scale (look at those black areas at the middle)..

An astonishing snow event for Greece if things go as predicted..

[Guest]

It's been a common theme with the ECM this season; sticking to its guns then jumping across to GFS. I would expect some movement shortly if this is to happen again.

The GFS has certainly been king in sniffing out the cold first, with its inevitable wobbles of course.

[Purga]

OK so a mild interlude - who's up for another chase?

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I always thought the GFS was the most progressive and Atlantic biased of the main models but then ECM didn't even have our current cold spell on its charts until almost the last minute. Maybe the same will happen again

GFS normally is the most (and too) progressive to return to a mobile, mild, Atlantic outlook. Hence it had us back in milder air by tomorrow at one point, now pushed back to late this weekend/early next week. It wobbles around quite a lot with its outlook but it’s good at picking up new trends. Will be an interesting afternoon of updates (models and Met Office outlook) to see if this is a new trend being picked up.

Edited February 10, 2021 by MattStoke

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

Also good news is that both op and control appear to be close to the ensemble mean so looking like a likely outcome

I mean, with the Ukmo and ECM in agreement at 120, you would usually write off what the GFS is showing, but with the met office currently sticking to their guns, and the fact FI is probably 72-96, it's got a chance at least.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I mean, with the Ukmo and ECM in agreement at 120, you would usually write off what the GFS is showing, but with the met office currently sticking to their guns, and the fact FI is probably 72-96, it's got a chance at least.

Cmon battleground hit me with those lovely ensembles!!

[Gowon]

19 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mate, when the met office update didn't change yesterday, I thought it was a big sign... Didn't really get any attention in the met office thread.

It's like a classic 80's pattern, just need more widespread snow

OP at 252.

 

Also, I think the UKMO at 144 isn't that far away to the GFSv16 at the same time.

I think the ECM is wrong tbh, but we'll find out later.

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Cmon battleground hit me with those lovely ensembles!!

Haha I was waiting till it got to 192, as I think we will see another drop off then,

168 attached - got a 2 hour work meeting now

Edited February 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[chris55]

35 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes please para at 180!

 

️

Para really going for it with a quick return to proper cold!