Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[mb018538]

I was surprised someone as experienced as Marco even put that tweet out yesterday…..based on that clearly outlying ukmo op run last night, which has vanished today. The outlook was uncertain yesterday and uncertain today…..nothing has changed!

[minus10]

Even after this weekends issues the Gfs12z has removed the higher pressure for the beginning of July as compared to the 6z....

 

Amazing period of uncertainty in the models currently...

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Can't wait for the first to claim the ECM run out to T144 is good......looks cloudy and potentially wet again for the south not really getting better until Sunday however a negatively tilted high by them I suspect won't offer much protection from the north or north west...

Phew thankfully it does, and a decent ridge builds in. Happy to be wrong…

[mb018538]

ECM out on its own again with a big uk high. Not overly convinced by this yet.

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z op really perks up towards the end...the Azores high / ridge...   could soon become our friend again..a good start to July?    

Edited June 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles are nae too shabby; at or above 5C T850s throughout: 

    

And, unusually for the GFS, 2m temps are well within my comfort zone! 

Edited June 21, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z does have some good signs, especially during early July...the mean generally indicates a typical north / south split but some of the ensembles become very summery...nationwide!..some May say that’s not realistic but at that longer range..who knows who will be right, the optimist?, the pessimist? or the realist..anyhoo, here’s a small sample..  ?!!!  

 

Edited June 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mushymanrob]

52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I was surprised someone as experienced as Marco even put that tweet out yesterday…..based on that clearly outlying ukmo op run last night, which has vanished today. The outlook was uncertain yesterday and uncertain today…..nothing has changed!

sorry i completely disagree with you..  the UKMO was not an outlier.. it was pretty much bang on IF you take any heed of the NOAA anomaly charts... and its not vanished today..

The outlook is pretty certain as far as im concerned, high pressure will build to our near west and a positive pressure anomaly will persist over the uk not only in the 6-10 day timeframe but the 8-14 day too.

The outlook is pretty certain, its going to be fairly fine, below average rains, calm, not completely settled and no heatwave, but a lot of really decent summers weather. Im not going to argue about the detail, but .... DEAL!

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean clearly improves longer term, increasing Azores high / ridge influence and becoming warmer...just as the operational...so...for sure there’s encouraging signs of a decent end to June and start to July?..especially further south!...sincerely I’m hoping for a good summer!  

 

[Northwest NI]

13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean clearly improves longer term, increasing Azores high / ridge influence and becoming warmer...just as the operational...so...for sure there’s encouraging signs of a decent end to June and start to July?..especially further south!...sincerely I’m hoping for a good summer!  

 

“Especially further West” I’d say.

 

[Man With Beard]

A split 55/45 in favour of some disturbance tracking down the UK during Friday in the ECM ensembles, but still a lot of variety over track and depth of the low - some barely show a front.

Pretty unanimous that whatever disturbance will clear quickly during the weekend, and although many ensembles seem ripe for another northerly to follow straight after, most agree with the op and build a ridge in for next week. Bit nervous about all of it, though.

 

Edit: looking at rainfall amounts tells a slightly more pessimistic story for the coming weekend, again highest rainfall totals focussed more towards the south, Friday affects anywhere in the UK, both Friday and Saturday could see decent totals across the south. Fairly dry next week though.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

A split 55/45 in favour of some disturbance tracking down the UK during Friday in the ECM ensembles, but still a lot of variety over track and depth of the low - some barely show a front.

Pretty unanimous that whatever disturbance will clear quickly during the weekend, and although many ensembles seem ripe for another northerly to follow straight after, most agree with the op and build a ridge in for next week. Bit nervous about all of it, though.

 

Edit: looking at rainfall amounts tells a slightly more pessimistic story for the coming weekend, again highest rainfall totals focussed more towards the south, Friday affects anywhere in the UK, both Friday and Saturday could see decent totals across the south. Fairly dry next week though.

I am getting frustrated, once again I have visitors coming down for the weekend. Golf on Saturday as our tickets for the T20 international got cancelled (see my rant in the COVID thread for why) but increasingly worried golf could be a washout and all the outdoors venues we’ve got booked will be rubbish too!! 
 

This comes off I’ll be fuming 

Edited June 21, 2021 by Alderc

[Man With Beard]

58 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I am getting frustrated, once again I have visitors coming down for the weekend. Golf on Saturday as our tickets for the T20 international got cancelled (see my rant in the COVID thread for why) but increasingly worried golf could be a washout and all the outdoors venues we’ve got booked will be rubbish too!! 
 

This comes off I’ll be fuming 

GFS in particular does seem to have it in for the UK this weekend. Nothing particularly convincing yet IMO! Wouldn't be surprised if it all goes west.

Edited June 21, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1995 anyone?

[mb018538]

Models still a bit all over the place this morning, and the UKMO has pretty  much dropped the uk anticyclone idea, with the trough now much closer by:



GEM probably best, though it's all looking a bit wishy washy now, and the high pressure signal probably overplayed. See below tweet form Matt Hugo:
 

 

Edited June 22, 2021 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

And here is the GFS 00Z; wishy-washy just about sums it up, IMO:  

    

    

    

But at least we lose the current nagging NE wind.  

[Frosty.]

I’m still hopeful for a decent start to July despite what some are saying!..the GEFS 0z mean looks ridgy which is reflected by some of these anticyclonic perturbations...fingers crossed..!!    

 

Edited June 22, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

ECM also joining the party in diminishing the  dominating high pressure signal through the early to middle part of next week. It ends up much better in the north though, and eventually for all by day 10 (a longgggggggg way off as we all know).

Friday could see showers across a large swathe of the UK:


Saturday - dry in the north, heavy showers in the south:



Sunday similar, main shower risk nudging a bit further south:



More rain/showers in the south Monday to Wednesday:


Net result:



From an IMBY point of view, I hope this is wrong! That trough needs to bugger off, not hang around like a bad smell for nearly a week.

Edited June 22, 2021 by mb018538

[Guest]

Well we are clearly into a spell of fairly lengthy poor surface conditions, bar tomorrow and maybe Thursday any decent weather really now is into the FI range. June unlikely to turn any better than average here now, which is disappointing given the decent start. 

[sheikhy]

I will take what the models show for my area anyway lol!!looks pretty good apart from a bit of rain for a couple days at the end of this week!!will feel really warm and humid in any sunshine though!!

[mb018538]

The regime forecast from the ECM was interesting yesterday:



Blocked weather dominating all through July. 

500mb update also shows +ve heights over the UK, and low polar and Greenland heights dominating the next fortnight....so unless troughs gets stuck like the end of this week, on the whole it shouldn't be too bad. I'm hopeful of a big improvement again as we head out of June and get into July.

Edited June 22, 2021 by mb018538

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM also joining the party in diminishing the  dominating high pressure signal through the early to middle part of next week. It ends up much better in the north though, and eventually for all by day 10 (a longgggggggg way off as we all know).

Friday could see showers across a large swathe of the UK:


Saturday - dry in the north, heavy showers in the south:



Sunday similar, main shower risk nudging a bit further south:



More rain/showers in the south Monday to Wednesday:


Net result:



From an IMBY point of view, I hope this is wrong! That trough needs to bugger off, not hang around like a bad smell for nearly a week.

I’d be surprised if we saw widespread totals like that, locally perhaps but I suspect a lot of areas could stay dry if we are dealing with showers. This looks better than the last few days at least, in fact many could have some pretty decent weather and if we are dealing with showers/thunderstorms then there is a bit of interest in the mix.

One concern is the potential for winds off the north sea on the ECM suite that could bring a lot of mist/low cloud. So edging the final position of that shallow low westwards would be helpful as that should allow more of an east/south easterly element to the winds.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I’d be surprised if we saw widespread totals like that, locally perhaps but I suspect a lot of areas could stay dry if we are dealing with showers. This looks better than the last few days at least, in fact many could have some pretty decent weather and if we are dealing with showers/thunderstorms then there is a bit of interest in the mix.

One concern is the potential for winds off the north sea on the ECM suite that could bring a lot of mist/low cloud. So edging the final position of that shallow low westwards would be helpful as that should allow more of an east/south easterly element to the winds.

Yeah - those are pure speculation at the moment. The run last night had the low more to the SW which imported warmer air. As long as we start seeing temps 20-23c rather than the 15c we've now had for a week here then I don't mind. It's like a bad joke that in a few locations the summer solstice was colder than the winter solstice!! 

[Uncle_Barty]

Matt Hugo on Twitter trying to pour cold water on those hoping for much of an improvement going forward...

"Caution required over this signal for high pressure to build into the British Isles from the W through late June...We are still about to see a trend towards a -ve AAM regime. A more changeable/unsettled pattern still remains more likely towards months end/early July..."

[mb018538]

00z GFS - fairly deep low over Iceland at day 10


06z GFS - High pressure over Iceland at day 10



Nice and consistent...d'oh!