Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[damianslaw]

No proper warmth shown on the models in the reliable, could be looking at a May that fails to deliver 70f for many.

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

No proper warmth shown on the models in the reliable, could be looking at a May that fails to deliver 70f for many.

Fingers crossed June will deliver Damian..fingers ....I’ve seen plenty of evidence from the GEFS for an improvement..especially into the start of the meteorological summer!..hey..I can’t be any more positive than that...anyone got any Midori..I love alcohol ??!  

Edited May 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Snow Shoes said:

If and when we do get any warm weather this summer I'm guessing that the surrounding sea temperatures (currently 9-10c around much of Uk) might temper the effects of any warming fairly well inland (especially if winds are blowing from the North sea) 

Those SSTs will warm up within days once the sun comes out. People always make an issue of this after every cool spring but it is never a problem once the strong sun gets to work.

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Those SSTs will warm up within days once the sun comes out. People always make an issue of this after every cool spring but it is never a problem once the strong sun gets to work.

You’re so right, the strong sun will take care of everything!..joking aside, there’s an improvement for sure in the GEFS..wow I sound too optimistic..?..I don’t care..there’s plenty too be positive about once this prolonged unsettled filth is over!!!  

[Britneyfan]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

You’re so right, the strong sun will take care of everything!..joking aside, there’s an improvement for sure in the GEFS..wow I sound too optimistic..?..I don’t care..there’s plenty too be positive about once this prolonged unsettled filth is over!!!  

And we still have the whole of summer it’s not even begun yet, and then we have autumn you can still get hot weather well into September! So that’s still 4 months of potential 

[PiscesStar]

I'm not at all worried by the output. I don't like heat at all 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

 I don't like heat at all 

It’s time you got out of the kitchen then ?!.. ..anyhoo, we are not talking about heat?..the GEFS shows an improving outlook in the mid / longer range?... finer and a bit warmer..baby steps!

[Don]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Those SSTs will warm up within days once the sun comes out. People always make an issue of this after every cool spring but it is never a problem once the strong sun gets to work.

Summer 2013, say no more......

[mushymanrob]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Summer 2013, say no more......

i will say more, lol 1969, 1975, 1983, 1996, 2018, off the top of my head all had cold springs but decent/good summers

[Scorcher]

Indeed, I do recall the SSTs being very low in 2013 after that cold spring and people then were remarking about how it was going to be hard to get any heat due to this- it wasn't a problem at all in the end.

They must have been very low in 1983 as well. It wasn't a warm June that year either but it didn't stop July being record-breaking.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i will say more, lol 1969, 1975, 1983, 1996, 2018, off the top of my head all had cold springs but decent/good summers

Well, I rest my case! 

Spring 2018 was actually warmer than average though, but featured a cold March, courtesy of the BFTE's!  April and May 2018 were both warmer than average.  The message is clear, however, cold springs by no means equate to cool/wet summers!

Edited May 21, 2021 by Don

[Frosty.]

Summer is coming guys..like it or not!!!!!!!!...woteva..there are at least some good signs from the GEFS 6z? ..wow, I’m officially exhausted now, I may be back for the 12z., if I can recover in time..I need a sleep.. ..do I look like I give a damn if the charts are in the correct order...nope!!!!    

Edited May 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Anyone who knows me?...actually nobody knows me ..but enough of that, I love this perturbation..does anyone else love this perturbation?  

I think most of us want the same thing..an end to this crap May?..and that will come soon enough, and for my German cousins.. who look at netweather.....sommer kommt!  

 

  

[mb018538]

Bit concerning to see the gfs keep churning out these garbage runs that don’t even resemble high pressure!

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Bit concerning to see the gfs keep churning out these garbage runs that don’t even resemble high pressure!

Why doesn't this trough want to leave us!? Goodness gracious 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Bit concerning to see the gfs keep churning out these garbage runs that don’t even resemble high pressure!

Stick with the mean..you know it makes sense!  

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Stick with the mean..you know it makes sense!  

Wickedly laughs as the pantomime villain

[mb018538]

ECM 216 from this morning vs GFS 12z for day 9:
 

[wimblettben]

2 hours ago, Britneyfan said:

And we still have the whole of summer it’s not even begun yet, and then we have autumn you can still get hot weather well into September! So that’s still 4 months of potential 

it is just potential though, and its not normal to have warm and dry sunny days in autumn unless luck just happens to be on your side.

Its much more common to have dry or warm weather in spring and so the fact that this spring has been so poor means that the only real chance we have of settled nice weather is now in the summer .

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

it is just potential though, and its not normal to have warm and dry sunny days in autumn unless luck just happens to be on your side.

Its much more common to have dry or warm weather in spring and so the fact that this spring has been so poor means that the only real chance we have of settled nice weather is now in the summer .

Don’t agree with that at all. Quite a few Septembers in recent years have had far better weather than In august. To all intents and purposes it’s still a summer month barring the darker evenings!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Indeed, I do recall the SSTs being very low in 2013 after that cold spring and people then were remarking about how it was going to be hard to get any heat due to this- it wasn't a problem at all in the end.

They must have been very low in 1983 as well. It wasn't a warm June that year either but it didn't stop July being record-breaking.

July 2013 should've been much hotter with all the HP slap bang over the top of UK, it was even the middle of the peak summer month and yet barely anywhere else outside London got over 30C. Could that have been a result of a cold spring and low SSTs? 

[Methuselah]

I think I'm hallucinating!            

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

July 2013 should've been much hotter with all the HP slap bang over the top of UK, it was even the middle of the peak summer month and yet barely anywhere else outside London got over 30C. Could that have been a result of a cold spring and low SSTs? 

No it was because the heat was home-grown rather than imported from a hot continent. There is a clue in what you said- 'HP slap bang over the top of the UK'. Similar to early July 2018 in that way. We did reach 30C in Manchester on August 1st when there was more of a plume scenario.

Generally the extremely high-pressure dominated months don't tend to record extreme temperatures that much. Nothing really to do with the SSTs.

[Scorcher]

The GFS really is all over the shop at the moment- big changes with every run.

Thursday looks rather messy on the latest run:

In stark contrast to the UKMO at the same time- looks like a very decent day.

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

July 2013 should've been much hotter with all the HP slap bang over the top of UK, it was even the middle of the peak summer month and yet barely anywhere else outside London got over 30C. Could that have been a result of a cold spring and low SSTs? 

SSTs local to UK just above average actually, some slightly cooler than average to our SW:

Neither very marked.  If we get the high pressure and heat from the sun, these would not in my opinion put any damper on temperatures for long at all and would quickly trend above average.