Model output discussion 9th April onwards

[Howie]

Hopefully the gfs is an outlier

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Er right.....I think JS is saying that the UKMO run is not bad and quite warm. (Not that I speak German)

Meanwhile the 12Z GFS is a bit cooler towards the later stages compared with the 6Z with HP not so prominent over the UK allowing a bit of a trough to encroach, although it does recover again from the Azores somewhat near the end.  

We have the warm spell and thundery bit in the bag I think, however more uncertainty after that, although nothing too desperate it would seem....

 

Не о чем беспокоиться. Это действительно будет особенность! 

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Howie said:

Hopefully the gfs is an outlier

Es ist nicht so schrecklich!!!...ok, enough of that, the Gfs 12z operational is not so bad, sure it’s mixed but compared to most of May it’s decent..Ja?  

Edited May 29, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Es ist nicht so Schrecklich!!!...ok, enough of that, the Gfs 12z operational is not so bad, sure it’s mixed but compared to most of May it’s decent..Ja?  

예. 물론이야! 죄송합니다!

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Es ist nicht so Schrecklich!!!...ok, enough of that, the Gfs 12z operational is not so bad, sure it’s mixed but compared to most of May it’s decent..Ja?  

Not so sure, looking at the surface conditions temps mid to high teens bar a couple of days in London at 20/21c is pretty poor to be honest now, especially day after day. 

[Guest]

Fortunately the GFS 12z Ops run is at the toilet end of the ensembles. Big scatter though....
 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Alderc

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not so sure, looking at the surface conditions temps mid to high teens bar a couple of days in London at 20/21c is pretty poor to be honest now, especially day after day. 

Are you quite sure you haven't accidentally taken your TARDIS back to June 1972, Chris!

Edited May 29, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Howie]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Fortunately the GFS 12z Ops run is at the toilet end of the ensembles. Big scatter though....
 

Crazy how one small and relatively weak area of low pressure throws a massive spanner in the works

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Howie said:

Crazy how one small and relatively weak area of low pressure throws a massive spanner in the works

The mean looks better, quite ridgy..wow..I can speak English..there is a god!!...Ja Ja Ja..oops..  

[Howie]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The mean looks better, quite ridgy..wow..I can speak English..there is a god!!...Ja Ja Ja..oops..  

thank god for the mean

[mb018538]

29 minutes ago, Howie said:

thank god for the mean

Hopefully, the day 10 ecm tonight is rubbish. Unsettled and we’re stuck under the only blob of cool air in all of Europe on that chart. Surely an outlier.

[Frosty.]

Ok..in Broken English .how you say.. ....the ECM 12z operational isn’t so bad, there’s plenty of high pressure influence for the first 96-120 hours..Ja..Ja..for sure it’s a bit mixed thereafter , there is some shallow trough activity. ..Ja..Ja.?..but still, I’ve seen worse..Ja?!  

Edited May 29, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Howie]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Hopefully, the day 10 ecm tonight is rubbish. Unsettled and we’re stuck under the only blob of cool air in all of Europe on that chart. Surely an outlier.

Just our luck eh

[Methuselah]

Oh dear, the GFS Operational has flipped to the dark side:

       Ja ja   

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear, the GFS Operational has flipped to the dark side:

       Ja ja   

Don’t worry Ed..Yoda will fix it!  

[Frosty.]

Has anyone mentioned the GEM 12z?...I’m not surprised..it’s not a gem!  

 

 

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Has anyone mentioned the GEM 12z?...I’m not surprised..it’s not a gem!  

 

 

This model was showing a protracted and sustained warm spell the other day - it’s beyond useless.

Having said that, the outlook seems to be looking less promising with every run.A couple of days ago we were looking at low to mid 20s in London all through next week.

 

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

This model was showing a protracted and sustained warm spell the other day - it’s beyond useless.

Having said that, the outlook seems to be looking less promising with every run.A couple of days ago we were looking at low to mid 20s in London all through next week.

 

Yeah I definitely don't like the trend at all

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

This model was showing a protracted and sustained warm spell the other day - it’s beyond useless.

 

 

We should know by now, the models giveth and taketh away?...besides, the models don’t control the weather, it’s the other way around so you can’t really blame the models for not showing what you want to see?  

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

We should know by now, the models giveth and taketh away?...besides, the models don’t control the weather, it’s the other way around so you can’t really blame the models for not showing what you want to see?  

Wasn’t blaming the models - just saying that they aren’t showing such a positive outlook as a couple of days ago.

However, I will blame the GEM for flip-flopping around too much!

[Frosty.]

Anyway..moving swiftly on, tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean look quite ridgy to me which brings reasonable hopes for more in the way of high than low pressure during the next 10 days...and considerably warmer than the cold crap in May too!  

[Methuselah]

And meanwhile, the weather's gonna do what the weather's gonna do: 

[Frosty.]

Am I the only one who couldn’t give a crap about the football?... ...anyway, looking at the GEFS 12z longer term, there are some good signs too.. yeah I’ve been selective but the mean looks decent!!! .. ?

 

 

Edited May 29, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

I beg your pardon . . . 

 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I beg your pardon . . . 

 

Along with the sunshine,

There’s got to be a little rain sometimes!

(Scratch the last line - we’ve all had enough!)