Hurricane season 2021

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[karyo]

Yes, the forecasts so far point to an active hurricane season.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by karyo

[Timmytour]

Hurricanes Grace and Odette will be the ones to look out for this season.....  I'd put them in my team if there was a fantasy hurricane league!

[summer blizzard]

Likely to retain a -ONI.

Likely to develop a -QBO.

Both factors which point to an active season.

-PDO tends to subdue activity everywhere.

 

Punting for sub 20 systems even with an above major hurricane total is probably the best bet.

[summer blizzard]

As the models point past midmonth it may be worth suggesting that we may have the first year since 2014 not to produce an early system.

[Lauren]

There's already a depression on the Pacific side of Mexico, so things are getting there.

[Jo Farrow]

19 hours ago, Lauren said:

There's already a depression on the Pacific side of Mexico, so things are getting there.

Tropical Storm Andres starting the eastern Pacific hurricane season

[Pea]

Not an Atlantic hurricane but it looks like there's likely to be something stirring in the Arabian Sea over the next few days headed for Gujarat or possibly up to the Indus delta/Karachi area. One to watch.

[karyo]

12 hours ago, Pea said:

Not an Atlantic hurricane but it looks like there's likely to be something stirring in the Arabian Sea over the next few days headed for Gujarat or possibly up to the Indus delta/Karachi area. One to watch.

Yes, the Indian Meteorological Department is expecting this tropical depression to develop fast into a cyclone.

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, the Indian Meteorological Department is expecting this tropical depression to develop fast into a cyclone.

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.phpl

Looks like the Models are showing that as well, certainly something to keep an eye on. 

[SNOW_JOKE]

The first Disturbance of 2021 on the NHC list, now with a 70% chance of becoming named sometime over the weekend as it moves towards Bermuda.

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

[matty40s]

23 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

The first Disturbance of 2021 on the NHC list, now with a 70% chance of becoming named sometime over the weekend as it moves towards Bermuda.

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

Probably hit the UK on Bank Holiday Monday.

[summer blizzard]

Met Office also released a forecast but went in such a broad range that they basically evaded giving a proper forecast beyond being outside the 15% most extreme seasons either side.

[Lauren]

2 areas of development in the Atlantic now, one looking likely to become named soon. All kicking off!

[jonboy]

Talk that hurricance force winds have hit the greek island of Petra earlier today!!

[Jo Farrow]

The new supplementary name list to replace the Greek Alphabet- if needed.

Atlantic Hurricanes: Your complete guide

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Atlantic hurricanes; the strongest, deadliest, costliest and earliest or latest? We'll take a look at some of the extreme hurricanes in history and some that have come close to the UK.

 

[Pea]

After Tauktae hit Gujarat last week a new cyclone (Yaas) increasingly likely to form in the Bay of Bengal this time, possibly headed for Odisha/West Bengal/Kolkata area by Wednesday. Interesting flurry of pre-monsoon storms in that part of the world - perhaps there'll be 2 landfalls in India within 10 days.

[karyo]

On 22/05/2021 at 11:30, Pea said:

After Tauktae hit Gujarat last week a new cyclone (Yaas) increasingly likely to form in the Bay of Bengal this time, possibly headed for Odisha/West Bengal/Kolkata area by Wednesday. Interesting flurry of pre-monsoon storms in that part of the world - perhaps there'll be 2 landfalls in India within 10 days.

Cyclone Yaas is expected to hit parts of northeast India midweek.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by karyo

[matty40s]

On 20/05/2021 at 16:30, SNOW_JOKE said:

The first Disturbance of 2021 on the NHC list, now with a 70% chance of becoming named sometime over the weekend as it moves towards Bermuda.

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

Became Ana

 

[summer blizzard]

Yes so we obviously never made it through May without development but there's nothing for the next few days forecast despite a favourable convection passage. 2018 and 2019 actually managed to get to July before their second system.

[karyo]

The 0z ECM has a low forming in the Bay of Campeche at 144 hours and then moving north to the Texas/Louisiana border by 192 hours.

The 0Z GFS is much more excited as it strengthens the system to a hurricane moving slowly along the Texas coastline.

[karyo]

The NHC is giving a 40% chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche/GOM in the next 5 days.

The models pick this up from about 140 hours onwards but don't look interestied in developing it to anything more than a tropical storm.

The SSTs are around 27-29c which is above normal for June.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php 

[karyo]

Activity has picked up in the tropics with three areas of interest!

The Bay of Campeche system has now 60% chance of development for the next five days as it slowly moves north. However, the models don't look very interested at present.

A tropical wave has emerged from Africa and it is currently south of Cabo Verde. It looks healthy and has a 20% chance of development in the next couple of days before entering an unfavourable environment in central tropical Atlantic.

And out of the blue we may get a tropical depression by tonight. There is a developing low east of North Carolina but it is expected to move over colder waters by Wednesday.

[matty40s]

[Lauren]

And we have 'Two'. And 2 other areas of development. Here we go, guys!