August 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 13th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.3c to the 13th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[summer blizzard]

First third was the coolest since 2017 as will be the first half.

2018, 2019 and 2020 all cooled over the month (short warm periods exempted) though while we may have a chance of seeing a warmer second half (que Roger to provide some recent examples if he has not already).

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

First third was the coolest since 2017 as will be the first half.

2018, 2019 and 2020 all cooled over the month (short warm periods exempted) though while we may have a chance of seeing a warmer second half (que Roger to provide some recent examples if he has not already).

I find it surprising that 2019 had a cooler second half- what were the stats for the two halves?

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I find it surprising that 2019 had a cooler second half- what were the stats for the two halves?

We went through the 10th at 18.4C but the 16th at 17.2C, the 20th at 16.9C and months end at 17.1C.

One must remember that while mean minimum don’t peak until I think August 12th the second half of the month does see the CET start to fall away at a fairly high rate.

[Roger J Smith]

From the current charts I only see potential for a slight rise in CET with a few very warm days in the mix, but just for the raw stats on August CET increases from mid-point to end ... these are the top upward moves (the average change would be a decrease of about 1.0, so even any slight increase is relatively unusual). 

YEAR _______ CET 16th __ CET 31st ___ Increase

1939 ________ 15.1 ______ 16.4 _______ 1.3

1984 ________ 16.3 ______ 17.6 _______ 1.3

1812 ________ 13.1 ______ 14.3 _______ 1.2

1930 ________ 14.6 ______ 15.7 _______ 1.1

1955 ________ 17.0 ______ 18.1 _______ 1.1

1886 ________ 14.9 ______ 15.8 _______ 0.9

1949 ________ 15.9 ______ 16.8 _______ 0.9

1929 ________ 14.6 ______ 15.4 _______ 0.8

1961 ________ 14.6 ______ 15.4 _______ 0.8

1987 ________ 14.8 ______ 15.6 _______ 0.8

________________________________________________________

So only ten Augusts managed an increase of 0.8 or more, there were quite a few more in the range of 0.1 to 0.7. Since 1987 (the last year to make the list) the largest increase was 0.5 for Aug 2016 (16.5 to 17.0). The increase was actually 0.6 rounded off (from 16.45 to 17.02). 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.1C -0.6C below average. Rainfall 19.3mm 28.1% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 14th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.4c to the 14th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[North-Easterly Blast]

Here is a list of Augusts that had a warmer second half than the first half, in reverse order since World War 2:

2019, 2017, 2016, 2008, 2005, 1987, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1976, 1971, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1955, 1949, 1947.

It is striking what a rare event warmer second halves of August than the first half has been since the 1980s, whereas it had happened statistically, roughly over a third of the time prior to 1987 since World War 2.  That said it has happened a few times since 2005 whereas not at all between 1987 and 2005 - which is very much an incredible statistic!

 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Here is a list of Augusts that had a warmer second half than the first half, in reverse order since World War 2:

2019, 2017, 2016, 2008, 2005, 1987, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1976, 1971, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1955, 1949, 1947.

It is striking what a rare event warmer second halves of August than the first half has been since the 1980s, whereas it had happened statistically, roughly over a third of the time prior to 1987 since World War 2.  That said it has happened a few times since 2005 whereas not at all between 1987 and 2005 - which is very much an incredible statistic!

 

Interesting. There have been a few cases in recent years then. Looks like minima will help prop the mean values up a bit over coming days whilst maxima will be consistently below average. Think a number of places are still waiting for a high of 22 degrees or more this month and no sign of many getting into the 20s through the coming week. Very poor.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 16.2C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall still at 19.3mm 28.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

16.5c to the 15th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[Roger J Smith]

Since I have the data handy, this is an expanded table from my earlier top ten list, showing all the August increases on record since 1772. Some of the actual increases are 0.1 different when two decimals are used, but this is a simplified table showing the differences between rounded off first half and final values.

TOP 35 INCREASES 1772-2020 ____________________ 36th-67th ranked INCREASES

 

YEAR _______ CET 16th __ CET 31st ___ Increase _______ YEAR _______ CET 16th __ CET 31st ___ Increase

1939 ________ 15.1 ______ 16.4 _______ 1.3 _____________ 1926 ________ 15.8 ______ 16.2 _______ 0.4

1984 ________ 16.3 ______ 17.6 _______ 1.3 _____________ 1936 ________ 15.7 ______ 16.1 _______ 0.4

1812 ________ 13.1 ______ 14.3 _______ 1.2 _____________ 1962 ________ 14.1 ______ 14.5 _______ 0.4

1930 ________ 14.6 ______ 15.7 _______ 1.1 _____________ 1966 ________ 14.3 ______ 14.7 _______ 0.4

1955 ________ 17.0 ______ 18.1 _______ 1.1 _____________ 1968 ________ 15.0 ______ 15.4 _______ 0.4 

1886 ________ 14.9 ______ 15.8 _______ 0.9 _____________ 1985 ________ 14.2 ______ 14.6 _______ 0.4

1949 ________ 15.9 ______ 16.8 _______ 0.9 _____________ 2017 ________ 15.2 ______ 15.6 _______ 0.4

1929 ________ 14.6 ______ 15.4 _______ 0.8 _____________ 1821 ________ 16.1 ______ 16.4 _______ 0.3 

1961 ________ 14.6 ______ 15.4 _______ 0.8 _____________ 1833 ________ 14.0 ______ 14.3 _______ 0.3

1987 ________ 14.8 ______ 15.6 _______ 0.8 _____________ 1866 ________ 14.4 ______ 14.7 _______ 0.3 

1895 ________ 15.1 ______ 15.8 _______ 0.7 _____________ 1869 ________ 15.2 ______ 15.5 _______ 0.3

1942 ________ 15.9 ______ 16.6 _______ 0.7 _____________ 1912 ________ 12.6 ______ 12.9 _______ 0.3

1892 ________ 14.6 ______ 15.2 _______ 0.6 _____________ 1922 ________ 13.3 ______ 13.6 _______ 0.3

1947 ________ 18.0 ______ 18.6 _______ 0.6 _____________ 1959 ________ 16.9 ______ 17.2 _______ 0.3

1960 ________ 14.4 ______ 15.0 _______ 0.6 _____________ 1971 ________ 15.3 ______ 15.6 _______ 0.3

1967 ________ 15.1 ______ 15.7 _______ 0.6 _____________ 1983 ________ 17.0 ______ 17.3 _______ 0.3 

1807 ________ 16.4 ______ 16.9 _______ 0.5 _____________ 1797 ________ 15.6 ______ 15.8 _______ 0.2

1822 ________ 14.7 ______ 15.2 _______ 0.5 _____________ 1828 ________ 15.1 ______ 15.3 _______ 0.2 

1823 ________ 13.9 ______ 14.4 _______ 0.5 _____________ 1867 ________ 16.1 ______ 16.3 _______ 0.2

1826 ________ 17.1 ______ 17.6 _______ 0.5 _____________ 1914 ________ 15.9 ______ 16.1 _______ 0.2 

1841 ________ 14.1 ______ 14.6 _______ 0.5 _____________ 1921 ________ 15.2 ______ 15.4 _______ 0.2

1852 ________ 15.3 ______ 15.8 _______ 0.5 _____________ 2008 ________ 16.0 ______ 16.2 _______ 0.2

1854 ________ 14.7 ______ 15.2 _______ 0.5 _____________ 2019 ________ 16.9 ______ 17.1 _______ 0.2

1976 ________ 17.1 ______ 17.6 _______ 0.5 _____________ 1815 ________ 15.2 ______ 15.3 _______ 0.1

2016 ________ 16.5 ______ 17.0 _______ 0.5 _____________ 1824 ________ 15.0 ______ 15.1 _______ 0.1

1779 ________ 17.2 ______ 17.6 _______ 0.4 _____________ 1843 ________ 15.2 ______ 15.3 _______ 0.1 

1780 ________ 17.2 ______ 17.6 _______ 0.4 _____________ 1857 ________ 17.3 ______ 17.4 _______ 0.1

1810 ________ 14.2 ______ 14.6 _______ 0.4 _____________ 1887 ________ 15.6 ______ 15.7 _______ 0.1

1859 ________ 15.8 ______ 16.2 _______ 0.4 _____________ 1900 ________ 15.0 ______ 15.1 _______ 0.1 

1865 ________ 14.7 ______ 15.1 _______ 0.4 _____________ 1943 ________ 16.0 ______ 16.1 _______ 0.1 

1872 ________ 14.9 ______ 15.3 _______ 0.4 _____________ 2002 ________ 16.9 ______ 17.0 _______ 0.1

1874 ________ 14.7 ______ 15.1 _______ 0.4 _____________ 2005 ________ 16.1 ______ 16.2 _______ 0.1 

1883 ________ 14.9 ______ 15.3 _______ 0.4

1902 ________ 13.9 ______ 14.3 _______ 0.4

1913 ________ 14.8 ______ 15.2 _______ 0.4

___________________________________________________

In addition to the above list of 67 Augusts with increases after the 16th, these thirteen Augusts had no change 16th to 31st:

_ 1783, 1796, 1811, 1849, 1855, 1880, 1898, 1899, 1925, 1958, 1972, 1981, 2015

________________________________________________________

We'll see if 2021 has any chance to make this list

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield remaining at 16.2C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall up to 20.1mm 29.2% of the monthly average.

[LetItSnow!]

Looking at some of the GFS output, I wonder what the chances are of ending up sub-16 this month. That includes potential downwards correction. It's all on a knife edge at the moment. Either way, a thoroughly unexceptional August here.

[summer blizzard]

Fair chance with a bit of natural slippage. Any 10C+ uppers have melted away.

[Summer Sun]

16.4c to the 16th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[damianslaw]

Over the half way point and a rather average August temp wise quite likely unless we see a notable warm up month end, and there is no signal for that. Unlike many a month this year this one might see quite a flatline mean value throughout with little variation. Turning into a non-event month barely anything to talk about..

Edited August 17, 2021 by damianslaw

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back down to 16.1C -0.5C below average. Rainfall unchanged at 20.1mm 29.2% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 17th

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[damianslaw]

Minima helping to prevent mean falling to much at present. Maxima notably below average mind! We've yet to record 22 degrees! Shocking!

[Stu_London]

Reasonable chance the last 14 days of August will be in the range of 15.9C-16.4C (a continuation of mild night/average or below day theme)

It it is at the lower end of the prediction, then a sum 16C month could be possible after recalibration of the data 

[Summer Sun]

16.3c to the 18th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average
___________________________

Current high this month 16.5c to the 15th
Current low this month 15.4c to the 3rd

[summer blizzard]

Hard to say where we end up being August and pressure being high. Warm uppers have gone now though.

Edited August 19, 2021 by summer blizzard

[Methuselah]

Well, I can't see temps falling any more than what we'd expect, during the last week of August:  I could be wrong, of course; stranger things have happened!

Edited August 19, 2021 by Ed Stone

[summer blizzard]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I can't see temps falling any more than what we'd expect, during the last week of August:  I could be wrong, of course; stranger things have happened!

Euro and GEM have sub 5C uppers being dragged in.