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August 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

C.E.T. averages and extremes

 

The averages are shown for the past forty years 1981-2020, and the warmest third are bold type, middle third italic and coolest third underlined.

 

25.1 ... warmest August day (12th, 2020)

24.9 ... previous warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997

18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

17.8 ... tied 10th warmest 1736, 1899

17.6 ... tied 12th warmest (with 1976 and earlier years) 1984, 2004 and 2020

17.3 ... 1983

17.1 ... 1991, 2019 

17.0 ... 2002, 2016 

16.9 ... 2013 

16.8 ... 2001 

16.6 ... 1989, 2000, 2009, 2012, 2018 

16.5 ... average of 1991-2020, and 2001-2020, and 1996 

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 

16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 1981, 2005, 2008 

16.1 ... 1999, 2006 

16.0 ... 1994 

15.9 ... 1998, 2015 

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000

15.7 ... average of 1659-2020 (15.651) and 1982

15.6 ... 1987, 2017

15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, and 2007, 2011 

15.3 ... 1992, 2010

15.2 ... 1988

15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

14.9 ... 2014

14.6 ... 1985, 1993 

13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- tied 16th coldest

13.6 ... tied 10th coldest (six years ... 1817, 1848, 1860, 1885, 1920, 1922)

13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845

13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725)
13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695)
12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

 9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

 8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

_________________________________________________________

Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Saturday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Tuesday, 3rd of August.

=======================================================================================

 

EWP forecasts 

192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2020 (1912) -- (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second)

156.5 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2020 (2004) 

125.2 mm __ August 2020

 83.1 mm ___ average for all years 1766 to 2020

 82.3 mm ___ average for 1991-2020

 75.6 mm ___ average for 1981-2010

 14.4 mm ___ second driest August (1947)

 _ 9.1 mm ___ driest August 1766 to 2020 (1995) 

_____________________________________________________________________

Recent years: 2019 _ 86.8 mm ... ... 2018 _ 76.7 mm ... ... 2017 _ 83.8 mm ... ... 2016 _ 67.5 mm ... ... 2015 _ 109.1 mm ... ... 2014 _ 118.9 mm ____

... ... ... 2013 _ 66.1 mm ... ... 2012 _ 94.2 mm ... ... 2011 _ 91.4 mm ... ... 2010 _ 107.2 mm ... ... 2009 _ 60.5 mm ... ... 2008 _ 116.5 mm

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hadley EWP is used for contest scoring. Deadlines are the same as for CET contest. Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast for one combined entry. You can enter either contest without making a forecast in the other category.

Good luck !! 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Gonna try something a bit different here - going in really early - doubt it will be final entry but hope it will.

16.8c and 90mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, sun and thunderstorms in summer. Cold sunny days and snow in winter
  • Location: Birmingham, West Midlands

I am going for 18.8c and 64mm.

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

18.4C and 43mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

15.8  C and 85 mm please

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Very low confidence this month as my methods basically conflict punting for 15.4C and 17.5C.

I shall pop in the middle and go for 16.5C but 110mm.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

16.8c and 78mm please. 

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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

16.6c and 83mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

16.1c cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
16 hours ago, Earthshine said:

16.2°C and 110mm please.

I want to update my guess to 18.0°C and 70mm please.

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

16.7°C and 92.0mm for me please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

16.7c and 90 mm thank you please

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I'll plump for 17.4C and 85mm of rain thanks, Roger.

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