Scotland Weather discussion

[Ravelin]

A game of two halves, or should that be day (can't warm to World Cup being in Nov). Lovely morning here in the NE for a (strike day) walk with the dog and friends part way up Scolty Hill and back, followed by a wander around Banchory. Got back to the car just as it started to rain, and by the time we'd stopped for a sandwich and a coffee a bit further along Deeside it was peeing it down. 

Last frame of the GFS 6Z was a stonker... 

12z GFS looks much less promising so the models keep seesawing, along with the model thread mood no doubt. 

Edited November 24, 2022 by Ravelin

[lorenzo]

Some 12z are still okay though - plenty of ups and downs and variations on themes in next few days. Boom and Bust modelling within Operational Runs.

 

[Klippie]

Its winter time again and here we go...the daft thread is on suicide watch for the inevitable downgrade on that stonking Dec10th run.

Current weather...pishing down, except there sounds like ice hitting the windows, I just had a look outside and sure enough wee bits of ice on the doorstep.

The first wintry precipitation of the season, I think we have had only one frost so far as well...here's to a long cold winter.

Edited November 24, 2022 by Klippie

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

There should probably be a rain warning for the west coast that's around 30-60mm within just 36hours 

[Kayemill]

11 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

There should probably be a rain warning for the west coast that's around 30-60mm within just 36hours 

I think they are just playing at weather warnings for Scotland now. Yesterday yellow warning for wind.........dead calm!

This morning, wind blowing the car doors off the hinges. Just a day out I suppose!

[snowy owl]

Morning everyone, after a very lengthy break (sadly I lost my father earlier this year and I now care for my mum,so I don’t get much time ) I’m so pleased to be back at such an exciting time! Can’t believe the charts are still showing this very blocked scenario so early in the season . I’m very happy to be back watching and catching up with all your brilliant analysis. 

[Mair Snaw]

@snowy owl sorry for your loss... and yes very exciting times lets hope it doesn't all go up in smoke..

[Northernlights]

Another day of gale force southerly winds drying everything up.At least it is sunny but makes working outside tiring currently.

 12c

Looking forward to some calmer weather next week even if its cooler

[snowidea]

Congratulations @Hairy Celtenjoy being a Grandad.

Braved the shops in Edinburgh with my daughter yesterday (inset day so no school) was bright, windy, chilly and not too busy. It is a beautiful city but the shops are too far apart, walked what felt like miles to get to a shop called urban outfitters who sell the sort of clothes I wore in the 80s. 

We're staying home for Christmas so hoping for some cold weather this year 

 

[lorenzo]

Blocking galore - but what will it eventually deliver.  Been a while since anomalies like below have given the Atlantic some food for thought, this at 192 isn't in the far reaches of reality either.

 

Some patience needed as lots of modelling to get through yet - so easy to see things in fast forward mode when looking for things to fall into place.

UKMO is encouraging

 

Just the small matter of getting that massive chunk of TPV to take the journey from Asia to Europe - something the GFS thinks about in the later frames - to really see Europe into the Freezer. It's bittersweet chart watching, the hunt for cold is enjoyable, but the realities in terms of costs of living / energy demands do temper things this winter.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Just the small matter of getting that massive chunk of TPV to take the journey from Asia to Europe

Hey Lorenzo I know you've seen some of my in depth outlooks in the mod thread and I've mentioned quite a few times I really think watching these severe cold pools that are in the modelling could be very relevant as we progress into December. 

[Mair Snaw]

I've just been for a quick glimpse in the mad house and the first 15 posts i saw is all wrist slashing and jumping off a cliff... wtf are folk looking at ??

[Northernlights]

Very mild breezy evening here at 14c. Grass fields all looking very green in the late afternoon sun

[lorenzo]

2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Hey Lorenzo I know you've seen some of my in depth outlooks in the mod thread and I've mentioned quite a few times I really think watching these severe cold pools that are in the modelling could be very relevant as we progress into December. 

Keep up the good work KW - you are all over this just now - great to see 

[Klippie]

Medium to heavy rain and 10deg/C here for the past few hours...the Beeb forecast saying its to be nice tomorrow and Monday, fingers crossed for some sunshine.

A couple of days ago one of the 10 day outlook's mentioned this up coming cold spell, they did go on to say if it happens don't expect deep cold as the continent is still relatively warm, so what are the mad bunch over on the daft thread looking at.

[Norrance]

45 minutes ago, Klippie said:

Medium to heavy rain and 10deg/C here for the past few hours...the Beeb forecast saying its to be nice tomorrow and Monday, fingers crossed for some sunshine.

A couple of days ago one of the 10 day outlook's mentioned this up coming cold spell, they did go on to say if it happens don't expect deep cold as the continent is still relatively warm, so what are the mad bunch over on the daft thread looking at.

It doesn't take long for the continent to cool down if high pressure sets up in the right place. Look at late Nov 2010! 
Talking of 2010 I notice that unlike back then the Met O also have not come on board. It is possible that though we get an Easterly drift the isobars may track back to milder air in South Eastern Europe rather than air coming round the high from the North East. Hopefully not though.

Meanwhile today it has been cloudy and damp with heavier rain this evening. Quite a bit milder than of late with the first double figures for some time.

[Quinach]

Stormy and wet outside at the moment and a mild 10c.

Earlier though it was a different story with some good spells of sunshine and generally light winds, mild with a max of 12c going by the car in Aberdeen.

Gave in to the kids desire to have a look at the Black Friday bargains in town - thankfully the bank balance was glad to hear that the supposed bargains were nowhere to be seen.  Made a nice change to see the city centre busy.

The revamped Union Terrace Gardens inch forward towards completion, the architecture now in that area certainly inspires comments  

[mardatha]

You lot up in the north east certainly get very different weather to me down here in the south east. I'm not complaining though, you can keep that wind & rain up there.

[Ravelin]

9 hours ago, Klippie said:

A couple of days ago one of the 10 day outlook's mentioned this up coming cold spell, they did go on to say if it happens don't expect deep cold as the continent is still relatively warm, so what are the mad bunch over on the daft thread looking at.

There's certainly been some very interesting model output over the last few days, but if it's snowy nirvana you're looking for then that's currently looking unlikely. The references to 2009 or 2010 are little other than pipe dreams. 

Cooler, dryer and calmer looks likely though. But a slack draw off the North Sea means I'm more worried about a drizzly permagloom than a beast from the East. 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Just out for early morning wander with the mad hound Breck and huge flash over to the west.  Just checked out the radar and there looks to be a thundery squall line off the coast of Ullapool which looks to be the culprit.

[Mair Snaw]

Bingo.... 14 days away what coudl possibly go wrong...

Bingo.... 14 days away what coudl possibly go wrong...

[Hawesy]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

Cooler, dryer and calmer looks likely though. But a slack draw off the North Sea means I'm more worried about a drizzly permagloom than a beast from the East. 

Yes spot on and as we know it’s more common for an easterly to deliver cool and grey than snowy nirvana. Can only hope we tap into some dry air as day after day of grey skies and the temp stuck on 5c or 6c is definitely not my idea of fun! 

[Polar Gael]

On 14/11/2022 at 23:24, Polar Gael said:

Evening, kilters. Back from estivation (and a very decent summer) for another season of chasing the cauld and snaw. Only one air frost here to date (4 Nov) and stupidly mild (and wet) for what seems like weeks on end now. November's monthly average rainfall total has already been breached and 75mm is forecast for us tomorrow. Lovely...

However, looking ahead, the charts now starting to recur in the mid-range are not without interest*. Reminds me a lot of November 2009 and we all know what happened when that pattern switched.

If the blocking comes to pass, it may not lead to the muckle cauld on the first shot, but it has been notable how we have been 'stuck' in recurring patterns of late and were that to happen, then it could become very interesting indeed.

All that said, am torn re winter this year: whilst I'm a snawchaser to my core, am acutely mindful of folks who will struggle to pay the heating bills anyway, let alone if a big freeze proper hits and given the current shower of sh*te in Westminster couldn't pour the water out of a boot if the instructions were on the heel, I'm not sure this is the winter when we want to see deep cauld hitting these shores for weeks on end. But, as ever, the weather will do as it likes. Would be good to have something a bit more seasonal over the festive period at least. 

So, let the chase begin!

 

 

 

 

 

*This is not a ramp as such. More of a mini-rampette. 

So, this week for the long-awaited pattern change. No 2009/10 on the first shot, but the set-up's timing at the very start of winter has teed everything up nicely should we go into a 'stuck' pattern (aka the rinse and repeat scenario).

Rainfall here now north of 250% of the normal November monthly average - not a month to be repeated. 

Even settled, a little chillier and grey skies would do for now. In saying all that, we did see the Big Yellow Thing in the Sky for a few hours this morning. Almost fainted with shock.

Bring on the blocking...

[Northernlights]

Wind finally  dropped to almost calm this evening. Mostly bright day with a maximum of 10c. Currently 7c

[Quinach]

Very respectable day with plenty of sunshine, light winds and a max of 9.5c.

Noticed the broom in the nearby forest is starting to come into bloom 

Best of the sunshine over towards the east (taken from Corrennie Woods)...