Scotland Weather discussion

[Sceptical]

35 minutes ago, Serac said:

That’s interesting as MetOffice just called me : unfortunately they hung up straight away …… it was a cold call

Yes I am getting excited : I understand the apparent restraint in here just now ; but I am moving into full on ramp mode now 

Definitely an "interesting" period of model watching, with lots of "potential".

Ramp on you crazy diamond  

[Hairy Celt]

59 minutes ago, Serac said:

That’s interesting as MetOffice just called me : unfortunately they hung up straight away …… it was a cold call

Yes I am getting excited : I understand the apparent restraint in here just now ; but I am moving into full on ramp mode now 

I fell for that, hook, line and sinker...  

[Quinach]

Roll on the change in the weather as the current Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ is really the pits.

Rain radar gives the idea that its dry, but that stealth drizzle is everywhere just waiting to soak you and the dog on your walk 

Currently 8.1c, drizzle and light SE winds.

[lorenzo]

02 December and this lot inbound, zero complaints whatsoever !

[Polar Side]

Hi folks, things are starting get interesting!

Hopefully we’ve got a decent winter ahead of us after a last years poor effort. Without wanting to jinx things, I’m looking forward to reading our resident experts views and analysis over the coming days, weeks and months and the snow reports from everyone.

 

[Hairy Celt]

23 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

02 December and this lot inbound, zero complaints whatsoever !

Where do you find those charts? They have lots of info in one place so look very handy.

[Bats32]

Just off out to B&Q to buy some path salt(whilst they've still got stock). Looking forward to next week! Pretty cloudy and miserable today on higher ground just outside Glasgow, not too cold either.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Bats32

[Sceptical]

Update Met office outlook.

Good and not so good.

All subject to change of course.

Wednesday 7 Dec - Friday 16 Dec

There is reasonable confidence that temperatures will remain below average, and it looks like turning even colder from Wednesday. Showers will fall increasingly as snow in the north, even to lower levels at times with notable accumulations over the Scottish mountains. There is a low risk in the far southwest, of a more prolonged spell of rain, which would turn to snow over the moors, but this is far from certain. The best of the clear or sunny spells looks most likely in the west, though this could lead to some hard night frosts. Towards mid-month, the signal for below average temperatures weakens with hints of milder, wetter conditions pushing in from the southwest - though any such features could be preceded by a period of hill snow.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 2 Dec 2022

Edited December 2, 2022 by Sceptical

[Bats32]

5 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Update Met office outlook.

Good and not so good.

All subject to change of course.

Wednesday 7 Dec - Friday 16 Dec

There is reasonable confidence that temperatures will remain below average, and it looks like turning even colder from Wednesday. Showers will fall increasingly as snow in the north, even to lower levels at times with notable accumulations over the Scottish mountains. There is a low risk in the far southwest, of a more prolonged spell of rain, which would turn to snow over the moors, but this is far from certain. The best of the clear or sunny spells looks most likely in the west, though this could lead to some hard night frosts. Towards mid-month, the signal for below average temperatures weakens with hints of milder, wetter conditions pushing in from the southwest - though any such features could be preceded by a period of hill snow.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 2 Dec 2022

🫤

[lorenzo]

2 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Where do you find those charts? They have lots of info in one place so look very handy.

Just plundering Twitter again HC, don't think these are in public domain.

[Ravelin]

MAD thread cracks me up every time. We almost certainly have the coldest spell of December weather coming for many years, yet now that is the case anyone south of roughly Birmingham starts bickering over who gets the one allocated snowflake for S England. 

Meanwhile most of us northerners are thinking "how much?" rather than "will it?". Bet they'll all be moaning about energy bills in a week or two, which will still be half of what ours are.

[Speedbird]

55 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

MAD thread cracks me up every time. We almost certainly have the coldest spell of December weather coming for many years, yet now that is the case anyone south of roughly Birmingham starts bickering over who gets the one allocated snowflake for S England. 

Meanwhile most of us northerners are thinking "how much?" rather than "will it?". Bet they'll all be moaning about energy bills in a week or two, which will still be half of what ours are.

Crikey, you should see it over there now.

I think the Samaritan's could be in for a busy night . . .

[Huntforsnow]

The mad thread has gone wild

Things still look good for us here, right? Where’s @Kirkcaldy Weather always got the right info? 

[Speedbird]

13 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

The mad thread has gone wild

Things still look good for us here, right? Where’s @Kirkcaldy Weather always got the right info? 

I'm not saying it's wrong, but the ECM evolution after t96 just doesn't seem plausible to me

[Ravelin]

46 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

I'm not saying it's wrong, but the ECM evolution after t96 just doesn't seem plausible to me

Does seem way out of kilter with anything else we've seen recently, and way too fast an evolution. Not venturing near the MAD thread after seeing that. 

[Sceptical]

Winter 1962/63 redux kicks off in Scotland early hours Sunday. Sleet for my backyard with snow showers as the week progresses.

More information on the Met Office app thingy.

 

 

[Mair Snaw]

Well according to the Mad house thats it winters over, they all knew it was going to happen apparently it was obvious dayd ago...❄❄❄

[SJFCPH1]

1 hour ago, Mair Snaw said:

Well according to the Mad house thats it winters over, they all knew it was going to happen apparently it was obvious dayd ago...❄❄❄

Just read the MAD thread... Only took an hour.   🌨 

Tmrw I'm only looking in here ...

Wait it is tmrw..   

[Hairy Celt]

Worst thing about the model thread is having to scroll past all the one liners quickly to find the nuggets. There are a few knowledgeable people who post there still fortunately.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Hairy Celt

[edo]

13 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Worst thing about the model thread is having to scroll past all the one liners quickly to find the nuggets. There are a few knowledgeable people who post there still fortunately.

I try and avoid the Nuggets

Particularly the ones that only appear every so often to try and tell you they seen this all coming after disappearing for days when the runs don't say what they predicted.

 

18z GFS looks good and potentially quite snowy, let's hope the ECM back on board in the morning but either way we look primed for seasonal weather and can only hope its the really snowy type seasonal weather. 

Nearly bought a new sledge in Costco today for the kids but didn't want to jinx it

[Sceptical]

10 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Winter 1962/63 redux kicks off in Scotland early hours Sunday. Sleet for my backyard with snow showers as the week progresses.

More information on the Met Office app thingy.

 

 

Please ignore the above as it's changed. Something else that's changed  is the wind direction from mid-week onwards. The Met are now going for winds from the NW .

Snow symbols, for certain locations, have been ramped up. Possible weather warnings next week?

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Sceptical

[Mair Snaw]

Panic over ECM says yes again this morning... the mad house is a happy place again.. they all patting eachother on the backs and the champagne is on ice...❄❄❄

[Sceptical]

5 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Panic over ECM says yes again this morning... the mad house is a happy place again.. they all patting eachother on the backs and the champagne is on ice...❄❄❄

Latest from the Met  

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Often cloudy with a few showers, wintry on hills, Monday. More frequent snow showers, falling to lower levels across the north by Wednesday. Overnight frost, feeling cold in the wind.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sat 3 Dec 2022

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

A damp start in the East Neuk. No wind to speak of, 6c. 

[Northernlights]

Red sky in the morning shepherd's  warning. Currently 6c. 

By this time next week it looks as though I will have -3c as  a maximum daytime temperature with possibly a bit of snow on the ground.