November 2021 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2020-21 competitions

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, reef said:

I cant believe that downwards correction. Thought I had it 

It must be one of the largest adjustments surely?

I cannot recall a larger one although there probably have been a few to equal it. Although it looks like 0.5 from rounded numbers (7.8 to 7.3) it is very close to 0.6 in two decimals (7.84 to 7.26). I am not 100% convinced it will stand for the duration if anyone does get around to checking that minimum for the 30th which seems wrong. It could then end up 7.4 or 7.5 in the books. That would bring Leo97t into the conversation as I think he just rose to the top in the calculations from his guess of 7.5 at that value. 

What I was actually expecting was maybe a 7.6 final value and a photo finish involving four or five of us who had all forecast values near that and the complexity of the scoring system meant I couldn't really figure out in advance which way that might go. By the way, in the list I made for the EWP and combined (where you had a high finish), had you entered July I think it was, and gotten a few extra points from your later guess, you would have been 6th there instead of 9th, but if you had gone into the CET that month I don't know if it would have helped or hurt your chances because of the weight assigned to average errors and ranks there. In the EWP every little bit helps, at least in the points category. 

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, noname_weather said:

Thanks for hosting the competition!! @Roger J Smith. Congratulations to the winners.

I went too far ahead with the cold wave, but hey I promised some snow and I guess that -6C 850 hPa 980mb on the 28th probably delivered some for higher ground.

Probably broke the record for the biggest downfall. From 1st to being out of the top 10 :P. Risk it for busquit. I guess that I will starve for now.

We all owe J10 a big thank you, he doesn't post as much as me but he does more work in the background than me, I devised a similar scoring system for the EWP after studying the ins and outs of the CET scoring so I know it takes quite a bit of work to maintain all that. You also finished second in the EWP contest, so you were heading in the other direction there. Your call for snow and cold at the end of the month verified, but it all came a bit late to make a complete verification, I made a call like yours in 2010 when November started out very mild for about ten days, and fluked it out (without the dramatic announcement or any chance to win the contest, can't remember now but I think it moved me up from 30th to 20th or something like that). 

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, Summer18 said:

Wow can’t believe I ended up finishing top on my first ever attempt at this, guess all those years lurking have paid off  Shame it’s in such suspect circumstances, I had written myself off for most of the month! Anyway well done all you guys who came close! 

Nobody thinks your win is anything less than a great accomplishment, we're more concerned with the apparently wrong data point on the 30th which is very bad timing given our contest year and how close this was, but it's not your fault so enjoy, I'm going to remember this as more of a very close finish where all of the top ten made a great run at it, we often know pretty much by October who is going to win but not this year. 

[Bobd29]

Thanks to Roger and J10, very happy to have won the seasonal EWP and 4th combined overall. Pure guesswork of course but good fun, cheers.

[Roger J Smith]

This feature will move over to the December thread starting with tomorrow's update (and will continue there to the end of the year).

 

Almanac for 3rd December

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.2 in 1985 (a repeat of 2nd). This time it replaced 11.8 from 1953 which had pushed out 11.5 from 1948, before that it had been 11.2 from 1918. Other mild 3rd of Decembers include 11.4 (1954), 10.9 (1974 and 2015), 10.8 (1934, 1993), 10.6 (1986), 10.5 (1866) and 10.4 (1794 and 1995).

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -4.0 in 1879 which replaced -2.2 from 1859, also it was -1.7 in 1856, that had edged past -1.6 from 1796. That was equalled by -1.6 in 1886.  The mean was -1.0 in 1962 and -2.6 in 2010. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 13.7 in 1953 which had edged out 13.5 from 1948 which was equalled by 13.5 in 1986. Other very mild daily maxima include 13.2 (1985), 12.9 (1918 and 1974), 12.8 (2015), 12.7 (1954) and 12.6 (1949).   

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 11.2 in 1985, which replaced 10.1 from 1954, that just after 9.9 from 1953, which had overtaken 9.6 from 1934. Other very mild lows include 9.9 in 1993, 9.5 in 1948 and 1995, 9.0 in 2015 and 8.9 in 1974. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -0.4 in 1879. Since then other cold values include 0.8 in 1889, some other readings near 2.0 but only 2.2 for 2010 in recent years.  

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -7.5 in both 1879 and 2010. Other cold minima include -6.1 in 1886, -5.2 from 1893, -4.3 in 1962, -3.8 in both 1925 and 1957 and -3.7 in 1950.  

The wettest 3rd of December (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 33.24 mm (1960) which is also a record for all December days, and higher than any value from 29th October to 28th of July. Only those two dates and 25th August have higher record amounts. Other high precip values for 3rd December include 16.76 mm (2020), 12.13 mm (1988), 10.94 mm (2015) and 9.68 mm (1994).

The wettest week ending 3rd December (27th Nov -3rd Dec) was 64.64 mm in 1992, followed by 53.64 mm (1960) and 50.13 mm (2009).

The least amount falling in a week ending 3rd December was 0.23 mm in 1962, then 0.34 mm in 1957, 0.49 mm in 1989, 0.94 mm in 2016, and 1.13 mm in 1990, also 1.37 mm in 1991, 1.50 mm in 2013.

-----------------------------

(map for 03 Dec 1960,  very wet day -- looks rather innocuous in a broad westerly flow, regional data show the southwest with 43 mm on average -- will feature the prolonged 1879 cold wave next but you can navigate there easily enough. Looks quite snowy for 3rd-4th then cold and dry. A very cold week began on 2nd Dec 1879.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1960&maand=12&dag=03&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

[feb1991blizzard]

Thanks to J10 and Roger for organising it - my best performance so far since i started entering all 12 months, guessing though that my ewp actual score could have possibly fallen well short of winning in other years, i guess what went in my favour is i had none or very few complete mess ups in both ewp and CET, so solid rather than spectacular got me up to 6th cet and winner in ewp.

[Roger J Smith]

And now it's official for the EWP with the table value being 43.2 mm, which is the 13th driest of the 256 in the data set (1766 to 2021), and the driest since 33 mm in 1956. Since then the driest had been 26th driest 1988 (50.2 mm). 

This will make for some tiny changes to the scoring table in the average error column, the total scores are unaffected. 

As Feb1991Blizzard mentioned annual scoring totals in the past, I looked that up, this is our fourth year, these are the four annual champions and their points totals ...

2017-18 ___ Singularity ___________ 87.9

2018-19 ___ Born From the Void _ 91.4

2019-20 ___ Mulzy  ________________80.22

2020-21 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ____ 83.87

However, the scores are not directly comparable because in the first two years I did not deduct partial scoring levels for duplicate entries and the late penalties were smaller (although these annual champs probably didn't have late penalties). 

I have gone back into the post (29th Nov) giving the scoring summaries, to make the small changes required and that post is now the final report on scoring for the EWP contest. 

Can also confirm that SLEETY has the best combined Nov 2021 forecast with 2nd CET (7.3 C) and 3rd EWP (60 mm). This is t5th best combined ranking result in the forty-eight contests so far. Also MULZY who entered later at 7.3 C and had 59mm was 6th CET and 2nd EWP for eight combined, which ranks t18th best all-time. 

Thanks for entering the EWP contests and a reminder, all scoring posted back on 29th Nov, in this thread.