November 2021 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2020-21 competitions

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.3C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 9.3mm 10.5% of the monthly average.

Local forecast shows it to be a lot colder than what the GFS suggests and if correct would have the average down to 8.4C by next Saturday. Still above normal. However the local forecast tends to under do the day time temperatures by a degree or two so I would say by next weekend we will be looking anything between 8.4C and 8.8C for us.

 

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 19th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 21st November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 13.7 in 1947. Before that, the record had been 12.0 in 1917.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -1.4 in 1880. In recent years the lowest daily mean was 0.4 in 1993. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 15.7 in 1947, which replaced 13.2 from 1928. The warmest since 1947 was 14.8 in 2009. It was also 13.6 in 1978. 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 11.7 in 1947. 1917 had 10.8. In recent years the mildest was 10.1 in 2009.

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was 1.1 in 1880. More recently the lowest since 1880 was 2.0 in 1993.

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -3.9 in 1880. This was challenged by -3.8 in 1937. In recent years the lowest was in 2005 with -3.5  and the minimum in 1993 was -1.1. 

The wettest 21st November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 24.25 mm (2016) followed by 19.57 mm (1940) and 12.85 mm in 1984.  

The wettest week ending 21st November (15th-21st) was 65.62 mm in 1944, followed by 64.04 mm in 2016, 63.05 mm in 1963, 59.66 mm in 1940, 55.87 mm in 1946, and 54.05 mm in 1950.

The least amount falling in a week ending 21st November was 0.64 in 1955, then 0.68 mm in 1953, followed by 0.92 mm in 1942, then 1.10 mm in 1983. 

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.4C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 9.3mm 10.5% of the monthly total.

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 20th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP is probably around 18 mm at present, looking to add 20-25 mm to finish near 40 mm. As the scoring will be the contest final, I will hold off until around the 29th even though fairly certain the numbers I have in the updated file are more or less the final values. If something more intense develops in the northerly flow, it could reach 50 mm but that won't make any real difference to the scoring. 

As to the CET, yes there are some quite cold days at times, separated by near normal readings on about a 50-50 basis. The average for the last ten days (including today just ending) should be between 5 and 6 given the range expected (2 to 8). After corrections the final value seems likely to end up in the 7.5 to 8.0 C range making for quite a suspenseful finish to the CET contest. Anything under 8.0 will create a "photo finish" I would think, anything 8.0 or higher is a done deal (for Reef). 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 22nd November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 14.4 in 1947. Before that, the record had been 13.2 in 1906. Since 1947 the highest daily mean was 12.8 in 2017; 1980 had 12.4. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -2.3 in 1773. In recent years the lowest daily mean was -0.3 in 1956, 65 and 83. 1988 was -0.1. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 15.4 in 1906 which prevented the 15.3 of 1947 from maintaining what would otherwise have been a four-day run (20th-23rd); in recent years 15.0 in 2017 came close to those two readings.  

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 13.5 in 1947, which is tied for the November record with 3rd, 1996. 1906 had 11.0. In more recent years the mildest was 10.9 in 1980, then 10.5 in 2017.

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was 2.1 in 1880 and tied in 1920. More recently the lowest maximum was 3.3 in 1993.

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -5.0 in 1988. This replaced -4.7 from 1880. 1983 had -4.4. 

The wettest 22nd November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was16.30 mm (2012) followed by 13.97 mm (2006) and 13.77 mm (1984). The wettest before these relatively recent top three were 11.44 mm in 1932, and 10.52 mm in 1970.  

The wettest week ending 22nd November (16th-22nd) was 71.55 mm in 1944, followed by 64.11 mm in 2016, 60.13 mm in 1963, 56.21 mm in 1986, 54.79 mm in 1970, 53.94 mm in 1950, 52.11 mm in 1940 and 51.76 mm in 1946.

The least amount falling in a week ending 22nd November was 0.13 mm in 1967, then 0.30 in 1953, 0.64 mm in 1955, followed by 0.83 mm in 1973, 0.84 mm in 1983 and 0.89 mm in 1942.

Edited November 22, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.2C -1.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 21st

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[damianslaw]

A very dry November possibly on the cards.. not had many dry Novembers recently. Also dry and mild don't tend to go together.. seems this autumn has counter balanced the cold April-May combo.. also the wet May which is usually a dry month. A very uninteresting Autumn all round.. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 23rd November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 13.3 in 1947. Before that, the record had been 12.3 in 1944 which replaced 11.8 from 1778. Since 1947 the highest daily mean was 12.4 in 1980. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -4.2 in 1858. In recent years the lowest daily mean was -2.9 in 1993.  

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 14.3 in 1947 which replaced 14.1 from 1919; in recent years 13.7 in 1994 was the highest maximum.  

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 12.3 in 1947, which replaced 11.6 from 1944; since 1947 the highest minimum on this date was 11.7 in 1980. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -0.5 in 1993 which replaced 1.2 from 1936. The maximum from 1858 however was very likely lower, possibly near -1.5 ... the weather map for the date shows a rather slack flow with a weak ridge connecting east Greenland with a small high over the near continent, with distant low pressure in the Atlantic. This looks like a weak easterly flow under mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a bit of light snow, would estimate the maximum near -1.5 which makes the minimum (from mean -4.2) around -7 C. (see link to archived map below the text). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -6.6 in 1983. This replaced -4.4 from 1910. 1993 had -5.1 and 1965 -4.0. (1858 likely had a reading comparable to the record if not even colder).

The wettest 23rd November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 16.79 mm (1946) followed by 16.23 mm (1939), 14.83 mm (1984) and 14.11 mm (1954).  

The wettest week ending 23rd November (17th-23rd) was 66.45 mm in 1946, then 63.46 mm in 1963, 61.69 mm in 2016, 58.78 mm in 1944, 55.78 mm in 1984, 55.54 mm in 1986, 53.49 mm in 1950 and 52.90 mm in 1970.

The least amount falling in a week ending 23rd November was 0.13 mm in 1967, then 0.84 mm in 1983, 0.85 mm in 1942, 0.94 mm in 1973, 1.15 mm in 2005 and 1.37 mm in 1955.

--------------------------

(map for 23 Nov 1858, second lowest November mean daily CET of -4.2)

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1858&maand=11&dag=23&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

 

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

At the moment we are 2nd warmest our records and 1st driest. Looking at the forecast it seems unlikely now that we will record the driest but certainly a  good chance of a top five finish.  5th place has 30.6mm, 1973 while top place has 17.5mm recorded in 1958. We have 9.3mm at the moment

Edited November 23, 2021 by The PIT

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest CET projection, based on the 06z GFS.

 

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (6.9C to 7.9C) is 78% (8 day ago was 31%)
Above average (>7.9C) is 22% (8 day ago was 64%)
Below average (<6.9C) is 0% (8 day ago was 5%)

The period of the 23rd to the 28th is forecast to average 3.8C, 2.6C below the 91-20 average.

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 22nd

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 24th November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.7 in 1980. Before that, the record had been 11.5 in 1778. There was also a mild 11.3 in 1888. 1846 had 10.7 and 1863 had 10.8. Since 1980 the highest daily mean was 10.8 in 1994 with 10.3 in 2009. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -4.6 in 1904. This is the lowest on record for November (see the link to an archived map below the text). This replaced -3.6 set in 1816 for the daily record and -4.2 from 23rd 1858 for the monthly record. In recent years the lowest daily mean was 0.0 in 1993. This was the first of many cold days in Nov-Dec 2010 (mean 1.6).

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 14.0 in 1980 which replaced 13.7 from 1951, and it was also 13.6 in 1964 and 13.5 in 1916 and again in 1970; since 1980, 13.4 in 2009 was the highest maximum (also 13.3 in 2006).  

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 11.4 in 1980, which replaced 10.6 from 1888; since 1980 the highest minimum on this date was 8.8 in 1994. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -0.3 in 1904. The lowest in recent years was 4.5 in 1988, with 4.7 in 2010. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -8.8 in 1904, also the lowest for all November days. In more recent years 1983 and 1993 both had -4.8 C. 

The wettest 24th November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 26.46 mm (2012) followed by 16.68 mm (1996), 15.52 mm (1951) and 15.38 mm (2006).  

The wettest week ending 24th November (18th-24th) was 70.47 mm in 2012, then 66.19 mm in 1946, 57.51 mm in 1984, 56.17 mm in 2016, 53.22 mm in 1950, 52.84 mm in 1944 and 50.93 mm in 1951.

The least amount falling in a week ending 24th November was 0.58 mm in 1976, then 0.98 mm in 1936, 1.04 mm in 1942, 1.16 mm in 1967, 1.35 in 1934, 1.55 mm in 1973, and 1.77 mm in 1955.

--------------------------

(map for 24 Nov 1904,  lowest November mean daily CET of -4.6, lowest minimum -8.8)

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1904&maand=11&dag=24&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

[Summer Sun]

8.9c to the 23rd

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.8C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 9.3mm 10.5% of the monthly average.

Just looking at the local forecast and if came off that would bring us down to 7.7C just 0.7C above normal. Now they tend to be high so finishing point is now 7.5C to 7.9C for us. So no longer in the top ten

Rainfall looks like it may take us out of the top driest as well.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 25th November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.1 in 1964. Before that, the record had been 11.4 in 1888.There was also a mean of 11.0 in 1863. Since 1964 the highest daily mean was 11.8 in 1986 with 11.5 in 2001, 10.9 in 1970 and 10.7 in 1999. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -1.5 in 1923. This was nearly matched by -1.4 in 1952. Since then the lowest daily mean was 0.3 in 2010.

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 13.8 in 1983 which replaced 13.7 from 1970 (13.4 in 1979 also), previous to that 13.3 in 1939, with 13.1 in both 1964 and 1968 and 12.9 in 1880, 1929 with 12.6 in 1888, 1916 and 1932. Since 1983 the highest value has been 13.2 in 1986 with 13.0 in 2001. As the 1983 warmth came only days after several cold records or near-records, today's featured map is from this date in 1983.   

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 11.1 in 1964, which replaced 10.6 from 1888; since 1980 the highest minimum on this date was 10.4 in 1986. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was 2.3 in 2010. This replaced 2.5 from 1923. . 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -5.6 in 1952 which edged out the previous mark of -5.5 from 1923. Back in 1884 there was a minimum of -3.7. In more recent years 1972 had -2.5 and 1993 had -1.8 C. 

The wettest 25th November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 17.95 mm (1938) followed by 17.56 mm (1939), 16.89 mm (1959), 16.43 mm (1960) and 16.11 mm (2003).  

The wettest week ending 25th November (19th-25th) was 80.24 mm in 2012, then 67.27 mm in 1946, 57.36 mm in 1984, 55.50 mm in 1938, 53.93 mm in 2016, and 52.74 mm in 2003 with 50.07 mm in 2006.

The least amount falling in a week ending 25th November was 0.79 mm in 1976, then 0.85 mm in 1936, 1.21 mm in 1942, 1.40 mm in 1973 and 1.52 mm in 1934, .

--------------------------

(map for 25 Nov 1983,  massive warming trend that eventually results in record high temperatures and heavy rainfalls (see almanac for 26th when published). 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1983&maand=11&dag=25&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP slowly rising, 19 mm to 23rd and now likely 20 mm, rest of month projection from GFS suggests grid average of about 15 mm, outcome would be 35 mm. Most of what is expected will fall on Friday and Saturday so that by Monday 29th I should have a fairly close estimate to use for the scoring report, and that can be adjusted in place by edits to keep the stage clear for the CET scoring and discussions. 

[Summer Sun]

8.8c to the 23rd

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.7C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

Finally landing zone for us looks to be around 7.7C to 7.9C

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 26th November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.1 in 1983. Before that, the record had been 11.2 in 1835. Since 1983 the highest daily mean was 11.5 in 1994. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -1.7 in 1904. This replaced -1.1 from 1854. It was also -1.0 for this date in 1874. Since 1904 the lowest daily mean was -0.5 in both 1925 and 2010. 1989 had -0.3. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 14.5 in 1979 which replaced 12.7 from 1931, also 12.4 in 1881, 12.2 in 1915 and 12.1 in 1932. Since 1979 the highest value has been 13.1 in 2011 and it was 12.9 in 1983 as well as 2019, 12.6 in 1981 and 1994, and 12.4 in 2006. Today's featured map is from this date in 1979.   

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 11.3 in 1983, which replaced 9.1 from 1932; since 1983 the highest minimum on this date was 10.4 in 1994. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was 1.2 in 1904. The maximum was 2.2 in both 1890 and 1973 and in more recent years the lowest maximum was 2.5 in 2010. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -5.1 in 1989 which broke the previous mark of -4.6 from 1904. It was also -4.2 in 1925 and -3.5 in 2010.

The wettest 26th November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 23.45 mm (1983 to go with the highest mean temperature) followed by 14.68 mm (1954), 13.33 mm (1931), 12.50 mm (1968) and 11.51 mm (2012).  

The wettest week ending 26th November (20th-26th) was 88.19 mm in 2012, then 61.10 mm in 1954, 57.21 mm in 1984, 54.75 mm in 1946, 53.31 mm in 1939, 53.26 mm in 2003, and 49.91 mm in 1938.

The least amount falling in a week ending 26th November was 1.00 mm in 1936, then 1.24 mm in 1989, 1.74 mm in 1973, 1.88 mm in 1934, 1.97 mm in 1955, 2.08 mm in 1942, and 2.17 mm in 1988.

--------------------------

(map for 26 Nov 1979,  highest daily maximum of 14.5 set -- another warm ridge on the east coast of the U.S. resulted in records set at NYC as well, the high for the 24th and 25th there was a record high of 73F and both days had the record high min of 61, 62 F as well. Note that for the CET zone the flow was coming up from a point between the Azores and Madeira.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1979&maand=11&dag=26&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

[Weather-history]

Fancy the chances it will be the driest November since 1956

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.5C +0.9C above average. Rainfall 11.7mm 13.3% of the monthly average.

All down to tonight and tomorrow and Mondays rainfall too see where we end up at.

[Roger J Smith]

For continuity, and please note previous report (8.8 C) was for 24 days not 23 ...

 

8.6c to the 25th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

(1.0 c above the 91 to 20 average)

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th