November 2021 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2020-21 competitions

[emmett garland]

oooops meant 7.3 oc and 132mm please 

[Mark Bayley]

7.8c please

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'll go for 7.4c and 115mm please.

[SteveB]

I'll go for 8.9c and 125mm please.

[mulzy]

7.3C and 59mm please.

[feb1991blizzard]

change to 7c and 92mm please

[Kentish Man]

6.8C thanks

[Mr Maunder]

7.7c and 89mm please.

 

MM

[noname_weather]

November will unleash the beast. The arctic chains of ice will finally be broken. My army will flow from the north and the east. From the rising of the sun my army will be seen. The southern and western armies will be trembled and shaken. Their power will be completely shattered.  My glorious chilly winds will pierce every single molecule of warm air trying to reach the UK . I will come to victory in this competition walking upon a thick blanket of clear white snow.

 

5.5 C and 80mm.

[Don]

7.0C and 120mm please

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, noname_weather said:

November will unleash the beast. The arctic chains of ice will finally be broken. My army will flow from the north and the east. From the rising of the sun my army will be seen. The southern and western armies will be trembled and shaken. Their power will be completely shattered.  My glorious chilly winds will pierce every single molecule of warm air trying to reach the UK . I will come to victory in this competition walking upon a thick blanket of clear white snow.

 

5.5 C and 80mm.

Blimey!!! you ain’t sitting on no fence, any chance of you applying for the job at the MetO monthly, you would certainly make the forecasts more interesting

[snowray]

6.9c and 116mm please.

[Froze were the Days]

7.1c for me...thanks!

[Duncan McAlister]

8.0c for me please.

[February1978]

7.1c and 113mm please

[Daniel*]

6.2C and 90mm thanks 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries for November 2021

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry) ____________________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry)

9.5 _ 110.0 _ syed2878 ( 27 ) _______________________ 7.2 __ 88.0 _ Freeze ( 6 ) _____________

9.0 __ 50.0 _ The PIT ( 39 ) __________________________ 7.2 __ 96.0 _ Stationary Front ( 23 ) __

8.9 _ 125.0 _ SteveB ( 47 ) __________________________ 7.2 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( L1-4 ) _____

8.8 __ 88.0 _ Shillitocettwo ( 7 ) ____________________ 7.1 __ 89.9 _ Midlands Ice Age ( 43 ) _

8.5 _ 140.0 _ Earthshine ( 5 ) _______________________ 7.1 _ ------ _ Froze were the Days ( 55 )_

8.4 _ 110.0 _ Summer Blizzard ( 33 ) _______________7.1 _ 113.0 _ February1978 ( 57 ) _____

8.3 __ 78.0 _ coldest winter ( 11 ) __________________ 7.1 _ 100.4 _ 1981-2010 average _

8.2 _ ------ _ Typhoon John ( 30 ) ____________________ 7.0 _  92.0 _ Feb91Blizzard ( 49 ) ______ 

8.1 _ 131.0 _ Reef ( 24 ) _____________________________ 7.0 _ 120.0 _ Don ( 53 ) ________________

8.0 _ 132.0 _ virtualsphere ( 4 ) _____________________7.0 _ 100.0 _ Ed Stone ( 20 ) _________

8.0 __ 98.0 _ stevew ( 16 ) ________________________6.9 _ 120.0 _ Summer 18 ( 15 ) ______

8.0 __ 75.0 _ Fozfoster ( 40 ) _____________________ 6.9 _ 112.0 _ jonboy ( L1-3 ) _____

8.0 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( 56 ) ________________ 6.9 __ 95.0 _ weather-history ( 35 ) _   

7.9 _ 103.0 _ Neil N ( 13 ) ____________________________6.9 _ 116.0 _ snowray ( 54 ) ________

7.9 _ 156.0 _ stewfox ( 28 ) __________________________6.8 __ 98.0 _ seaside60 ( 34 ) _____ 

7.9 _ 126.0 _ stargazer ( 37 ) ________________________ 6.8 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 50 ) ____

7.8 _ 145.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 36 ) ____________________ 6.7 _ 100.0 _ Jeff C ( 3 ) ____________ 

7.8 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 45 ) _______________________ 6.6 _ 150.0 _ John88b ( 10 ) _________ 

7.7 _ 197.0 _ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 26 ) ________ 6.5 __ 70.0 _ DiagonalRedLine ( 8 ) _

7.7 __ 89.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 51 ) ______________________6.5 _ 125.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 21 ) _________

7.6 __ 96.0 _ Weather26 ( 1 ) _________________________6.4 __ 75.2 _ Polar Gael ( 31 ) _________ 

7.6 _ ------ _ dancerwithwings ( 12 ) __________________ 6.4 __ 88.0 _ Booferking ( 41 ) _________ 

7.6 _ 110.0 _ J 10 ( 59 ) ________________________________6.3 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 42 ) _________

7.5 _ 160.0 _ leo97t ( L1-2 ) ___________________________6.2 __ 90.0 _ daniel* ( 58 ) _____________

7.4 _ 115.0 _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 46 ) ______________ 6.0 __ 85.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 38 ) _

7.4 _ 106.1 _ 1991-2020 average ______________________ 5.9 __ 78.0 _ Radiating Dendrite ( 17 ) _

7.3 __ 82.0 _ Bobd29 ( 2 ) _____________________________ 5.9 __ 90.0 _ summer8906 ( 22 ) _______

7.3 __ 60.0 _ SLEETY ( 9 ) ______________________________5.8 __ 60.0 _ Frigid ( 18 ) _______________ 

7.3 __ 89.6 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 19 ) ________________5.7 __ 81.0 _ rwtwm ( 25 ) ______________ 

7.3 _ 148.0 _ swfc ( 32 ) _______________________________ 5.5 _ 110.0 _ Godber 1 ( 14 ) ___________

7.3 _ 132.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 44 ) _________________ 5.5 __ 80.0 _ noname_weather ( 52 ) ______________

7.3 __ 59.0 _ Mulzy ( 48 ) _____________________________ 5.4 __ 89.0 _ cymro ( 29 ) ______________

7.3 _ ------ _ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-1 ) __________________

7.3__ 98.0 _ consensus ___________________________

... 59 on time forecasts, plus four marked one day late, 63 in total ...

... ... ... ... consensus is 7.3 C.

 

===================================

EWP Forecasts in order 

197_IremAtl .. 160_leo .. 156_stew .. 150_John .. 148_swfc .. 145.7_RJS ..140_Earth .. 132_virt,EG .. 131_Reef

126_star .. 125_Ste,DRS .. 120_sum18, Don .. 116_snow .. 115_WWS .. 113_Feb78  .. 112 .. jon^

110_godb,syed,SB,J10 .. 106.1_91-20 ... 103_NN ... 100.4_81-10 ... 100_Jeff,EdS ... 98_stevew,sea

 96_wx26,SF ..  95_wx-h .. 92_Feb91 .. 90_sum8906, dan* .. 89.9_MIA .. 89.6_KW .. 89_cym, MrM 

 88_fre,shil,boof ... 85_pSL ... 82_bobd ... 81_rwtwm ... 80_non ...  78_cw,RDen ... 75.2_PG

 75_Foz ... 70_DRL ... 60_sle, Frig ... 59_mul ... 50_PIT

_______________________________

52 on time forecasts, and two more marked one day late ^ ... 54 in total ... consensus 98.0 mm. 

==============================================================

TAB:E POSTED at 0003h Mon 1st Nov -- forecasts after this post are into late penalty time ...

FORECASTS WILL BE ACCEPTED UNTIL end of WED 3rd NOV 

Edited November 15, 2021 by Roger J Smith
correcting one entry for MrM prec (had shown as 89.9 with MIA)

[J10]

7.6c and 110mm

I just missed the deadline.

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, J10 said:

7.6c and 110mm

I just missed the deadline.

I'm calling that injury time, not late for the contest I score, especially as you're not in contention for the annual lead.

At this point I can reveal that in mathematical terms, Feb91Blizzard and snowray have eliminated any chance of third or fourth place forecasters from passing them (they cannot score low enough being near the middle of the pack of forecasts) and I am not sure if snowray has any mathematical chance or not because it may depend on the exact decimal value of scores that I already know to within 0.2 for the EWP ... one higher forecast could manage to produce a two-rank differential for October which is about the margin of error now in terms of the November scoring and totals. Very close anyway. 

As to the CET contest, as I mentioned earlier, I expect to find that the updated scoring from J10 has about fourteen people within very close range in points, this estimate may prove faulty but we'll have to see where the points sit, and then maybe list the contenders and their forecasts to see what's possible -- at least one of the contenders has not appeared with a forecast yet either. It should be quite an exciting end to the CET contest for those in the hunt. 

[Derecho]

A touch late, but I'll go for 7.3C

[jonboy]

6.9 and 112mm please

[Leo97t]

7.5c and 160mm

[Summer Sun]

7.2c for me please

[Weather-history]

On 30/10/2021 at 09:19, Weather-history said:

 

Driest November on record for England and Wales was in 1945 and is not even in the top 50 driest months of all time for England and Wales,

 

[Roger J Smith]

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2020 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

Date ____CET mean__CET cum____MAX ___________ MIN ______ CET running mean (extreme values)

 

01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ______ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1934) ___ 13.5 (1894,1982) _1.5 (1934)
02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ______ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880) ___ 13.8 (1821, 1894)_2,3 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ______ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820) ___ 13.6 (1894) _____ 2.6 (1880)
04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ______ 14.2 (1946) _____0.8 (1845&48) _ 13.0 (1894) _____2.6 (1880)
05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ______ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1801) ___ 12.7 (1894) _____ 3.1 (1782, 1880)

06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ______ 14.3 (2015) ______ 0.6 (1868) ___ 12.2 (1996) _____ 2.7 (1782)
07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ______ 13.8 (2015) _____ --0.6 (1791) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1782)
08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ______ 13.4 (1852) _____ --1.2 (1812) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1782)
09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ______ 12.5 (1988) _____ --0.5 (1921) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1782)
10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ______ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) ___ 11.8 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782)
 
11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ______ 13.9 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) ___ 12.0 (2015) _____ 2.4 (1782)
12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 _____ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ --1.4 (1919) ___ 11.9 (1938,2015) _2.6 (1782)
13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ______ 14.6 (1938) _____ --1.1 (1862) ___ 12.1 (1938) _____ 2.7 (1782, 1919)
14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ______ 13.4 (1938) _____ --1.1 (1925) ___ 12.2 (1938) _____ 2.5 (1782, 1919)
15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ______ 13.5 (1821) _____ --2.1 (1965) ___ 12.0 (1938) _____ 2.3 (1919)

16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ______ 13.4 (1997) _____ --2.9 (1901) ___ 11.9 (1938) _____ 2.2 (1919)
17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ______ 13.1 (1997) _____ --2.0 (1841) ___ 11.8 (1938) _____ 2.4 (1919)
18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.8 (2020) _____ --1.6 (1887) ___ 11.6 (1938) _____ 2.6 (1919)
19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ______ 12.7 (1994) _____ --2.1 (1815) ___ 11,4 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1919)
20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ______ 12.8 (2009) _____ --1.2 (1829) ___ 11.2 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)

21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ______ 13.7 (1947) _____ --1.4 (1880) ___ 10.8 (1938) _____ 2.9 (1786)
22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ______ 14.4 (1947) _____ --2.3 (1773) ___ 10.7 (1938) _____ 2.8 (1786)
23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ______ 13.3 (1947) _____ --4.2 (1858) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.7 (1782)
24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ______ 12.7 (1980) _____ --4.6 (1904) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.6 (1782)
25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ______ 12.1 (1964) _____ --1.5 (1923) ___ 10.5 (1994) _____ 2.5 (1782)

26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ______ 12.1 (1983) _____ --1.7 (1904) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.4 (1782)
27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ______ 11.3 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1915) ___ 10.6 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.0 (1828) _____ --4.0 (2010) ___ 10.4 (1994) _____ 2.2 (1782)
29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ______ 12.2 (1818) _____ --2.6 (1801) ___ 10.2 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)
30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ______ 12.4 (2001) _____ --1.7 (1973) ___ 10.1 (1994) _____ 2.3 (1782)

_________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 CET daily and running means 

01 ___ 9.6 __ 9.6 _______ 11 ___ 8.1 __ 8.6 _______ 21 ___ 6.2 __ 7.9

02 ___ 9.1 __ 9.4 _______ 12 ___ 8.4 __ 8.6 _______ 22 ___ 6.3 __ 7.8

03 ___ 9.2 __ 9.3 _______ 13 ___ 7.6 __ 8.5 _______ 23 ___ 6.0 __ 7.7

04 ___ 8.7 __ 9.2 _______ 14 ___ 7.7 __ 8.4 _______ 24 ___ 6.3 __ 7.7

05 ___ 8.6 __ 9.0 _______ 15 ___ 7.7 __ 8.4 _______ 25 ___ 6.5 __ 7.6

06 ___ 8.5 __ 9.0 _______ 16 ___ 7.4 __ 8.4 _______ 26 ___ 6.6 __ 7.6

07 ___ 8.7 __ 8.9 _______ 17 ___ 6.8 __ 8.2 _______ 27 ___ 6.7 __ 7.6

08 ___ 8.4 __ 8.9 _______ 18 ___ 6.8 __ 8.2 _______ 28 ___ 6.4 __ 7.5

09 ___ 7.9 __ 8.7 _______ 19 ___ 6.4 __ 8.1 _______ 29 ___ 6.1 __ 7.5

10 ___ 7.9 __ 8.7 _______ 20 ___ 6.1 __ 8.0 _______ 30 ___ 5.8 __ 7.4

___________________________________________

The sharp drop around 11th to 12th persists from 1981-2010, 

and the relatively cold period 20th-23rd also carries over with

a tendency to rebound to the 27th (25th had been the peak).