November 2021 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2020-21 competitions

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 27th November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 11.3 in 1818. Since then the highest value on this date is 11.1 from 2006, 1968 had 10.6. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -2.6 in 1915. This replaced -2.5 from 1890; it was also -2.3 in 1904. 1840 recorded -1.5 and 1807 and 1839 had means of -1.0. Since 1915 the lowest daily mean was -2.2 in 1923, and since then -1.6 in 2010. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 13.6 in 2000 and 2006 which replaced 13.2 from 1917. It was also 12.7 in 1899, 12.6 in 1979, 12.5 in 1953, 12.4 in 1999 and 12.3 in 1968 and 2018 on this date.  

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 9.0 in 1994, which replaced 8.9 from 1968 tied in 1983, before which the highest value had been 8.3 from 1953.

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -0.3 in 1890. 1915 was 1.2, 1904 was 1.4 and 1923 was 1.6, but the second lowest maximum was 1.0 in 2010. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -6.3 in 1915 which broke the previous mark of -5.9 from 1904. It was also -5.9 in 1923 and -4.6 in  both 1890 and 1978. The coldest since 1978 was -4.3 in 1989; it was also -4.1 in 2010 and -3.1 in 1988.

The wettest 27th November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 14.19 mm (1950) followed by 13.17 mm (1946), 13.08 mm (2018), 11.87 mm (1954), 11.79 mm (1944), 11.56 mm (1971) and 10.82 mm (2000).  

The wettest week ending 27th November (21st-27th) was 76.35 mm in 2012, which replaced 72.83 mm from 1954, followed by 58.10 mm in 1946, then 56.85 mm in 1939, 52.68 mm in 1984, 51.84 mm in 2009, and 51.68 mm in 2006.

The least amount falling in a week ending 27th November was 0.93 mm in 1989, followed by 1.11 mm in 1994, 1.69 mm in 1936, then 1.73 mm in 1955, 1.87 mm in 1942, and 1.93 mm in 1934.

--------------------------

(map for 27 Nov 1915,  coldest minimum and daily mean records set.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1915&maand=11&dag=27&uur=0600&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.2C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall 36.6mm 41.4% of the monthly average

Well the driest record chances blown away overnight so now the 9th driest on record.

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 26th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

Arwen doing just enough to move the month out of the top six driest Novembers, the total was 22 mm after 25th, added 8-10 mm yesterday and looks like it will add another 10 mm by end of the month, so the finish will be around 40 mm and perhaps as high as 45 mm. That range represents 8th to 16th driest so still some chance of staying in the top ten, but we are probably already out of the top six as 1956 (33.3 mm) will probably be passed today. I noticed that the CET after 26 days was down to 8.5 and with estimates of 3, 4, 6 and 8 for the last four days, the provisional CET would be 8.1 by 30th, meaning the likely outcome is probably around 7.8 or 7.9 C. 

My plan is to handle the EWP end of contest announcements on Monday 29th if I am certain that the November scoring is final, and that only requires that we stay below 54 mm. We'll get that done to clear the stage for J10 and the much closer finale of the CET contest. The one detail for EWP scoring that may have to wait would be the "best combined" November forecast. 

[Roger J Smith]

I usually post this feature each night around midnight to 0200h to be available for the full day in question, but as I have it ready now and there's a prominent role for 2010 here, I am going to post it during the evening hours ... the almanac for the 29th will appear at the usual time. 2010 remains in record position then as well. ... 

 

Almanac for 28th November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.0 in 1828. Since then the warmest average was 11.4 in 1917 followed by 11.3 in 1953 which matched 1806 and 1818. Since 1953 the highest value on this date is 11.1 in 2006. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -4.0 in 2010. This replaced -2.2 from 1787 tied in 1807 and 1890; it was also -2.0 in 1840 and -1.9 in 1915 on this date. -4.0 is the third lowest daily mean (24th 1904 -4.6 and 23rd 1858 -4.2). 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 14.7 in 2000 which replaced 13.3 from 1913. It was also 14.0 in 2018 and 13.1 in 1979, 12.9 in 1885 as well as 1939, 12.7 in 1999 and 2011.  

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 10.2 in 1917, since then the highest minimum on this date was 10.1 in 1953, and since 1953 it was 10.0 in 2006. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -1.0 in 2010, which is also the lowest for any date in November. The previous record for the day was -0.5 in 1890, and for the month, -0.5 on 28th 1890 and also 23rd Nov 1993 (there were quite possibly lower maxima than these before 1878). The maximum for this date in 1915 was 1.2. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -7.0 in 2010 which broke the previous mark of -4.9 from 1915. It was also -4.4 in 1973 and -3.6 in 1996. The 2010 record is also the second coldest minimum on any November day, with -8.8 on 24th, 1904 the record. 

The wettest 28th November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 16.27 mm (1965) followed by 13.18 mm (2009), 10.72 mm (1996) and 9.94 mm (1997).  

The wettest week ending 28th November (22nd-28th) was 74.55 mm in 1954, followed by 68.95 mm from 2012, 65.72 mm in 1939, 56.95 mm in 1946, 54.20 mm in 2009, and 52.11 mm in 2006.

The least amount falling in a week ending 28th November was 0.59 mm in 1948, followed by 0.62 mm in 1994, 0.85 mm in 1957, 0.87 mm in 1989, 1.33 mm in 2013, then 1.85 mm in 1955, 1.95 mm in 1942, 2.02 mm in 1936, and 2.07 mm in 1934.

--------------------------

(map for 28 Nov 2010,  all three daily minimum records set, significant snowfalls.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=2010&maand=11&dag=28&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Should see sharper drops tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday. Shame about Tuesday warming up.

At least it’ll be a lot closer to normal (within 0.5c of the 2000-2020 avg).

Edited November 27, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[Dancerwithwings]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Should see sharper drops tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday. Shame about Tuesday warming up.

At least it’ll be a lot closer to normal (within 0.5c of the 2000-2020 avg).

Yes shame about Tuesdays/weds warm up I’m sure if we would of stayed with these cold conditions we have now, the final outcome I’m sure would of been around my 7.6c guess

[Don]

39 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Yes shame about Tuesdays/weds warm up I’m sure if we would of stayed with these cold conditions we have now, the final outcome I’m sure would of been around my 7.6c guess

My 7.0C is dead in the water.  Punted too low yet again!  Hopefully this won't happen for December!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.2C +0.8C above average. Rainfall now at 40.1mm 45.4% of the monthly average

7.6C to 7.8C looks like our landing zone so could still make joint 9th warmest on record. However won't make the top ten driest.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP added 10 mm for Friday (to reach 32 mm) and the estimate for Saturday's grid average is 6 mm (for 38 mm). The projection for today, Monday and Tuesday is about 4-5 mm, most of that late Tuesday in just the northern region getting 15-25 mm. This would top off the month at 42-43 mm.

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 27th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[damianslaw]

A finish in the high 7s likely with downward corrections. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 29th November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.2 in 1818. Since then the warmest average was 12.1 in 2000. Other mild days (29th Nov) include 11.6 (2018), 11.5 (1906, 1917), 11.3 (1806, 1848), 11.1 (1853), 11.0 (1828). 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -2.6 in 1801. This was nearly broken by -2.5 in 2010. Between those two, some other very cold 29th Novembers include -1.9 (1890), -1.4 (1787), -1.1 (1815) and -1.0 (1952) and more recently -0.8 (1969), -0.7 (1985). 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 14.0 in 1939 which replaced 13.3 from 1906. Since 1939 the warmest values were 13.6 in both 2000 and 2018. Other mild days included 13.5 in 1954, 13.4 in 2001, 13.2 in 1885, 13.1 in 2011, 12.8 in 1917, 12.5 in 2006, 12.4 in 1913 and 12.3 in 1992. 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 10.6 in 2000, which replaced 10.2 from 1917. That had replaced 9.7 from 1906. Also notable was 9.5 in 2018. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was 0.0 in 1890. Since then the lowest maximum on 29th Nov was 1.3 in 2010, closest to that were 1.5 in 1969,  and 2.0 in 1923, and also 2008. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -6.3 in 2010 which broke the previous mark of -4.7 from 1985, which had itself broken the earlier record of -4.1 from 1952. It was also -3.9 in both 1915 and 1978 and -3.8 in 1890.  

The wettest 29th November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 20.80 mm (1988) followed by 14.33 mm (2009), 12.53 mm (1970), 11.83 mm (1954), 10.56 mm (1952), 10.48 mm (1993) and 10.13 mm (1976).

The wettest week ending 29th November (23rd-29th) was 77.16 mm in 1954, followed by 61.33 mm in 1946, 60.51 mm in 1939, 58.72 mm in 2009, 54.32 mm in 1965, and 52.88 mm from 2012.

The least amount falling in a week ending 29th November was 0.32 mm in 1994, 0.40 mm in 1957, followed by 0.53 mm in 2016, 0.59 mm in 1948, 0.64 mm in 1989, 1.40 mm in 2013, then 1.85 mm in 1955, and 2.12 mm in 1934.

--------------------------

(map for 29 Nov 2009,  two-day rainfall of 27.5 mm.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=2009&maand=11&dag=29&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

[Roger J Smith]

Final contest results for the EWP contest

(edit 5 Dec) _ The November confirmed value is 43.2 mm, which was 13th driest, driest since 1956, and  below the lowest contest prediction of 50 mm. After a brief review of the top 20 November scoring, I will show the full results of the 12-month annual competition (for frequent entrants and anyone who entered November -- other scores can be found in the excel file attached to this post).

This is the last post I plan to make for the EWP results; (check back any time up to 5 Dec to see updates on the November amounts (on 2nd for the end of the tracker, on 5th for the final value posted in tables -- done now). (Any scoring changes (which would be incremental) and are now edited into this post. It's great that we can clear the stage for the more suspenseful CET results. 

Thanks for supporting the EWP contest, it has been a wild ride. Congrats to Feb91Blizzard for taking the top spot (annual) and The PIT for winning November. Below the annual scoring is a brief leader summary for the autumn seasonal portion too. Noname_weather (second overall annual) won that title. Snowray was third in the annual contest. 

____________________________________

Top ten scores for November 2021 (43.2 mm) ______ Scoring 11-20 for November 2021

1. The PIT ______________ 50.0 mm ___ 10.00 __________11. rwtwm ______________81.0 mm ____ 8.00

2. Mulzy _______________ 59.0 mm ____ 9.80 __________ 12. Bobd29 _____________ 82.0 mm ____ 7.80

3. SLEETY ______________ 60.0 mm ____ 9.60 __________ 13. prolongedSnowLover 85.0 mm ___7.60

4. Frigid ___________(2)__ 60.0 mm ____ 9.48 __________ 14. freeze ______________ 88.0 mm ____ 7.40

5. DiagonalRedLine ____70.0 mm ____ 9.20 __________ 15. shillitocettwo __ (2) _88.0 mm ____7.28

6. Fozfoster _____________75.0 mm ____ 9.00 __________ 16. Booferking ____ (3) _ 88.0 mm ___ 7.16

7. Polar Gael ___________ 75.2 mm ____ 8.80 __________ 17. Cymro ______________ 89.0 mm ___ 6.80

8. Coldest Winter ______ 78.0 mm ____ 8.60 __________ 18. Mr Maunder ____ (2)_89.0 mm ___ 6.68

9. Radiating Dendrite(2) 78.0 mm ___ 8.48 __________ 19. Kirkcaldy Weather __89.6 mm ___ 6.40

10. Noname_weather __ 80.0 mm ___ 8.20 __________ 20. Midlands Ice Age ___ 89.9 mm ___ 6.20

_________________________________________________________________________________________

(Numbers in brackets for same forecast amounts show the order of entry for that value)

==========================================================================

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==========================================================================

 

<<< __ FINAL RESULTS of the 2020-21 EWP Contest Year __ >>>

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Rank __ Forecaster __________ Points _________ Avg error (rank) (rank adj) ___ seasons (ranks, avg)

_ 01 ___ Feb91Blizzard ______  83.87 _________ 30.76 mm (2) _ (1) _________ 01 04 06 08 __ 4.75

_ 02 ___ noname_weather ____80.21 _________ 31.68 mm (6) _ (4) __________28 09 05 01 __10.75 

_ 03 ___ snowray _____________ 78.15 _________ 31.32 mm (4) _ (3) _________ 02 07 01 36 __11.50

_ 04 ___ Bobd29 ______________ 77.57 _________ 33.13 mm (8) _ (9) _________ 05 24 07 06 __ 10.50

_ 05 ___ Midlands Ice Age _____72.42 _________ 32.28 mm (7) _ (7) _________ 19 22 02 16 __ 14.75

_ 06 ___ Godber 1 _____________70.28 _________ 35.31 mm (12)_(12) ________ 10 19 20 11 __ 15.00

_ 07 ___ Mr Maunder _________ 70.14 _________ 34.54 mm (11)_(11) ________ 54 08 03 04 __ 17.25

_ 08 ___ Don __________________ 68.49 _________ 34.18 mm (10)_(10) ________ 03 23 12 19 __ 14.25

_ 09 ___ Reef* _________________68.43 _________ 34.08 mm (9) _ (6) __________22 02 17 35 __ 19.00

_ 10 ___ The PIT _______________ 66.12 _________ 36.49 mm (15)_(15) ________ 09 20 26 17 __ 18.00

_ 11 ___ February1978 ________ 65.12 _________ 36.26 mm (14)_(14) ________ 11 35 10 20 __ 18.75

_ 12 ___ davehsug* ___________ 64.58 _________ 31.63 mm (5) _ (5) __________ 13 21 13 31 __ 19.50

_ 13 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather*___63.32 _________38.77 mm (18)_(17) _________ 18 45 22 05 __ 22.50

_ 14 ___ Polar Gael ____________63.24 _________ 31.03 mm (3) _ (2) ___________21 29 48 02 __ 25.00

_ 15 ___ Frigid* _______________ 62.99 _________ 30.70 mm (1) _ (8) ___________58 03 38 03 __ 25.50

_ 16 ___ seaside60 ____________ 61.79 _________ 37.08 mm (16)_(16) _________ 35 10 09 30 __ 21.00

_ 17 ___ virtualsphere ________ 60.34 _________ 40.03 mm (t25) (t24) ________ 04 18 08 48 __ 19.50

_ 18 ___ Mulzy _________________60.16 _________ 35.78 mm (13)_(13) _________ 33 11 43 09 __ 24.00

_ 19 ___ SteveB _______________ 58.91 _________ 40.03 mm (t25) (t24) ________ 14 49 24 13 __ 25.00

_ 20 ___ Ed Stone _____________ 57.49 _________ 38.84 mm (19) _(18) _________44 17 19 25 __ 26.25

_ 21 ___ syed2878 ____________ 55.96 __________41.72 mm (29) _(30) _________59 13 32 10 __ 38.50

_ 22 ___ Weather26* _________ 55.83 __________37.95 mm (17) _(20) ________ 34 40 35 07 __ 29.00

_ 23 ___ J 10 __________________ 54.75 __________ 38.92 mm (20) _(19) ________ 29 30 34 26 __ 29.75

_ 24 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 54.24 __________ 40.98 mm (27) _(26) ________ 30 38 16 33 __ 29.25

_ 25 ___ Stationary Front _____54.08 __________ 39.13 mm (22) _(21) ________ 12 43 37 22 __ 28.50

_ 26 ___ Jonboy*______________ 54.06 __________ 39.50 mm (24) _(23) ________ 37 26 41 18 __ 30.50

_ 27 ___ JeffC _________________ 52.30 __________ 39.29 mm (23) _(22) ________ 08 41 31 37 __ 29.25

_ 28 ___ daniel ________________52.01 __________ 42.24 mm (30) _(31) ________ 63 37 04 24 __ 32.00

_ 29 ___ DiagonalRedLine*___ 51.87 __________ 43.61 mm (32) _(29) _________46 34 23 27 __ 32.50

_ 30 ___ Relativistic (8) ________51.05 __________ 31.19 mm (---) _______________07 28 18 --- __(17.67)

_ 31 ___ Walsall Wood Snow _ 49.96 __________ 41.48 mm (28) _(28) _________57 16 28 29 __ 32.50

_ 32 ___ Roger J Smith ________49.80 __________ 44.09 mm (33) _(34) _________56 01 42 44 __ 35.75

_ 33 ___ Leo97t* ______________48.68 __________ 50.12 mm (41) _(40) _________48 14 14 47 __ 30.75

_ 34 ___ federico (7) __________ 47.61 __________ 34.67 mm (---) _______________16 06 --- --- __(11.00)

_ 35 ___ Coldest Winter (5) ___ 45.54 __________ 21.54 mm (---) _______________--- 12 --- 12 __(12.00)

_ 36 ___ weather-history _____ 45.38 __________ 42.68 mm (31) _(32) _________ 62 32 11 40 __ 36.25

_ 37 ___ shillitocettwo ________ 45.29 __________ 44.64 mm (35) _(36) _________20 52 44 32 __ 37.00

_ 38 ___ Emmett Garland _____44.44 __________ 44.36 mm (34) _(35) _________ 40 25 46 38 __ 37.25

_ 39 ___ summer blizzard ____ 42.29 __________ 45.93 mm (38) _(38) _________ 45 31 36 43 __ 38.75

_ 40 ___ sundog (9) ___________ 41.36 __________ 45.31 mm (37) _(33) _________42 27 40 45 __ 38.50

_ 41 ___ I Remember Atl 252 _ 41.13 __________55.31 mm (44) _(44) _________49 36 49 28 __ 40.50

_ 42 ___ Neil N ________________ 40.54 __________ 45.09 mm (36) _(37) _________ 60 44 29 34 __ 41.75

_ 43 ___BlastFromThePast (8)_ 38.62 _________ 43.11 mm (---) ________________06 33 52 --- __(30.33)

_ 44 ___BornFromTheVoid (9)_ 37.82 _________ 39.10 mm (21) _(27) __________31 39 30 --- __(33.33)

_ 45 ___ Stargazer ____________ 36.74 __________ 48.19 mm (40) _(39) _________ 64 15 47 39 __ 41.25

_ 46 ___ WeatherEnthusiast91(6) _36.69 __________26.22 mm (---) _______________ --- 51 21 23 __(31.67)

_ 47 ___ rwtwm (7) ____________34.89 __________ 32.96 mm (---) _______________ --- --- 45 14 __(29.50)

_ 48 ___ Summer 18 __________33.75 __________ 50.29 mm (42) _(42) _________ 17 54 53 41 __ 41.25

_ 49 ___ Timmytour (9) _______ 30.58 __________ 46.94 mm (39) _(40) _________ 53 50 27 --- __(43.33)

_ 50 ___ Earthshine (9) ________29.24 __________ 51.70 mm (43) _ (43) _________51 53 39 --- __(47.67)

_ 51 ___ Norrance (5) _________ 28.36 __________ 52.64 mm (---) _______________ 55 05 --- --- __(30.00)

_ 52 ___ B87 (5) _______________ 26.61 __________ 49.74 mm (---) _______________ --- 46 15 --- __(30.50)

_ 53 ___ Stewfox (7) ___________25.53 __________ 63.24 mm (---) _______________ 23 48 --- --- __(35.50)

_ 54 ___ SLEETY (4) ____________ 25.32 _________ 37.48 mm (---) ________________ 25 --- --- --- __(25.00)

_ 55 ___ Pegg24 (6) ____________24.19 __________52.07 mm (---) _________________39 42 --- --- __(40.50)

_ 56 ___ ProlongedSnowLover(5) _23.64 _________ 50.86 mm (---) _________________61 --- --- 15 __(38.00)

_ 57 ___ Cymro (3) _____________22.97 _________ 33.10 mm (---) _________________24 --- --- --- __(24.00)

_ 58 ___ Booferking (4) ________ 22.52 _________ 50.88 mm (---) _________________26 --- --- --- __(26.00)

_ 59 ___ Thundery Wintry Shwrs (5)_20.84 ________37.72 mm (---) _________________--- --- 33 --- __(33.00)

_ 60 ___ Let It Snow! (7) ________ 20.05 ________ 50.37 mm (---) _________________ 36 --- 50 ---__(43.00)

_ 61 ___ Fozfoster (2) __________ 18.75 _________ 35.50 mm (---)

_ 66 ___ summer8906 (3) ______ 14.15 ________ 34.67 mm (---) _________________ --- --- --- 21 __(21.00)

_ 73 ___ John88b (2) ___________ 10.45 _________ 56.30 mm (---)

_ 74 ___ Radiating Dendrite (2) _10.41 ________62.50 mm (---)

_ 86 ___ freeze (1) _______________ 7.40 ________ 44.80 mm (---) 

_ 90 ___ stevew (2) ______________ 6.60 ________ 59.60 mm (---) _________________ --- --- --- 42 __(42.00)

_108 __ swfc (1) _________________ 0.60 ________104.80 mm (---)

(for comparison -- decimal ranks show positions relative to the forecasters ... e.g., 4.6 means that consensus

ranked between 4th and 5th for points, and slightly closer to 5th than 4th. _ The seasonal ranks are not shown

with decimals, but give the rank as a participant -- this does not affect the ranks shown in the tables. ) 

_ 4.6 __ Consensus _____________ 74.70 _________ 34.39 mm (10.6) ____________10 25 19 12 __ 16.50

_10.2 __ 1981-2010 _____________ 65.89 _________ 34.22 mm (10.1) ____________07 38 06 20 __ 17.75

_10.9 __ 1991-2020 _____________ 65.22 _________ 34.38 mm (10.5) ____________02 36 20 25 __ 20.75

ANALYSIS: The scores show that our consensus was similar to the 4th and 5th place forecasters in skill, with the

two recent normals closer to 10th place, but still well ahead of 90% of the field. This combination suggests that

only the top forecasters are showing much skill in forecasting precipitation (this year). It has been a tough year

because of the tendency for mid-month reversals meaning that what you could see on the model runs even on 

the first day of a given month was not very helpful in predicting the monthly total. Some months such as December

2020 had very large average errors. 

Besides the obvious merit awards in the above tables, a shout out to Coldest Winter who averaged 9.1 points in five

contests entered, scoring at a rate well ahead of even our first place regular forecaster, although of course there's no

indication in that of potential scoring for the other seven months. Several forecasters joined in around mid-way through

this contest year, you can estimate how you stacked up by pro-rating your scores (if you played six, double your total, etc)

and that will give you a rough guide as to where you would likely finish in a full contest year. 

_______________________________________________________________________________

Seasonal ranks shown are for winter 2020-21, spring 2021, summer 2021, autumn 2021. An average is calculated, and placed in brackets where not all four seasons qualified. A seasonal rank requires two or three entries. 

Forecasters are ranked for average error if they entered 9/12 or more contests. 

* entered 11/12 (see below for 10/12 and lower)

The adjusted rank is based on an adjustment of their average error for missed months. When the consensus error is above 50 mm, this is given a +2 weight. When 40.1 to 50.0, +1. For 30.1 to 40.0 no change is made. For 20.1 to 30.0, the correction is -1. For any value 20 or lower, the adjustment is -2. Up to three such adjustments may be present in the adjusted rank (for 9/12 entries). 

The number in brackets after forecaster name indicates the number of contests entered, except that for all 12 there is no number present, and for 11/12 there is an asterisk symbol. For 10 or fewer, the actual number is shown. 

After 60th place, only active forecasters in NOV are shown, missing ranks will be visible in the excel file. These will be occasional entrants who did not participate in NOV. 

==============================================

TOP TEN SCORES for AUTUMN 2021 

_01 __ noname_weather ______ 26.08 _____ 06 __ Bobd29 ________ 21.10

_02 __ Polar Gael ______________ 24.71 _____ 07 _ Weather26 ______20.40

_03 __ Frigid ___________________ 23.16 _____ 08 __ Feb91Blizzard __19.73 

_04 __ Mr Maunder ____________ 22.30 _____ 09 __ Mulzy __________19.62

_05 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ______ 22.25 _____ 10 _ syed2878 _______ 19.59

(11 Godber1, 12 Coldest Winter, 13 SteveB, 14 rwtwm, 15 ProlongedSnowLover

16 Midlands Ice Age, 17 The PIT, 18 Jonboy, 19 Don, 20 February1978)

===============================================

(scoring file _ check out all features including a list of all-time scoring ranks over four years)

(note this has not been updated, the only missing info however was the best combined for

Nov which was SLEETY (2+3) followed by MULZY (6+2). 

 

EWP2020_21_NOV.xlsx

Edited December 5, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.9C +0.5C above normal. Rainfall up to 43.4mm 49.2% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 28th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP at about 36 mm after adding just 3 for Saturday (35 mm to 27th) and estimate of grid average 1 mm for Sunday 28th. Still expecting only another 5 mm grid average or so to be added from late Tuesday 10-20 mm rain moving into western districts. Most likely finish 42-45 mm.

A reminder, the full scoring report for the month and year can be found already in this thread, scroll back to around 0300h today and there it is.

Will be updating this report for exact details but would not expect any significant changes. 

Best combined forecast prospects depending on exact finishing value of CET as the EWP ranks are known already ...

CET 8.0 __ Fozfoster 3rd CET (8.0 third entry), 6th EWP = 9 combined ranking points

CET 7.9 __ Fozfoster 7th CET and 6th EWP = 13  points

CET 7.8 __ Fozfoster 12th CET and 6th EWP = 18 points; Mr Maunder 7th CET and 18th EWP = 25 points

CET 7.7 __ Mr Maunder 2nd CET (7.7 second entry), 18th EWP = 20 points. Sleety 18th CET, 3rd EWP = 21 points.

CET 7.6 __ Sleety 14th CET, 3rd EWP = 17 points; Mulzy 18th CET, 2nd EWP = 20 points 

CET 7.5 __ Sleety 11th CET, 3rd EWP = 14 points; Mulzy 15th CET, 2nd EWP = 17 combined ranking points

(can't see it finishing outside that range after adjustments, as tomorrow will be fairly mild). 

So Mr Maunder would need to hit the CET right on at 7.7, otherwise anything higher goes to Fozfoster and anything lower to Sleety. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 30th November

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.4 in 2001. That replaced 11.9 from 1939. Other mild days (30th Nov) include 11.8 (1914), 11.6 (1847), 11.4 (1823), 11.3 (1775 and 1817), 10.7 (1805). 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -1.7 in 1973. This replaced -1.6 from 1796 and it had been -1.5 in 1787. Between 1796 and 1973, some other very cold 30th Novembers include -1.1 (1846 and 1879) and -1.0 (1813) and since 1973 the coldest value has been -1.0 (2010) with -0.8 in 1978. 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 14.3 in 2001 which replaced 14.0 from 1914. Other warm values include 13.5 (1979), 13.2 (1961, 2007), 13.0 (1939, 2015), 12.8 (1985) and 12.6 (1999). 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 10.8 in 1939, which replaced 9.6 from 1906. Since 1939, 10.6 in 2001 has been the highest minimum. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was 0.4 in 1973. This replaced 1.1 from 1879. Since 1973 the lowest maximum on 30th Nov was 1.3 in 2010. 

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -5.8 in 1919, which replaced -4.7 from 1890; since 1919 the coldest was -4.9 in 1964, and since then -4.5 in 2016. (the lowest on this date in 1973 was -3.8) 

The wettest 30th November (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 13.13 mm (1935) followed by 12.67 mm (2003), then 11.34 mm (2007), 10.85 mm (1992), 10.46 mm (1932),  and 10.22 mm (1976).

The wettest week ending 30th November (24th-30th) was 66.12 mm in 1954, followed by 59.12 mm in 1992, 54.52 mm in 2009, 52.86 mm from 2012, 49.48 mm in 1939, and 48.38 mm in 1946.

The least amount falling in a week ending 30th November was 0.16 mm in 1994, followed by 0.37 mm in 1957, 0.39 mm in 2016, 0.54 mm in 1948, 1.00 mm in 1989, 1.26 mm in 2013, 1.34 mm in 1962, 1.53 mm in 1934, and 1.54 mm in 1955.

-----------------------------

(map for 30 Nov 2001,  very mild spell) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=2001&maand=11&dag=30&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

Edited November 30, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.8C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall 43.5mm 49.3% of the monthly average

Unless we have a max of over 12C we should finish on 7.7C

[Summer Sun]

7.9c to the 29th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.8c on the 1st
Current low this month 7.6c on the 5th

[Roger J Smith]

This daily almanac feature will run here for three more days to keep the posts out of the contest entry portion of December. The almanacs for 1-3 Dec will be in this thread then 4-31 Dec will be in the December thread. I may decide to move the project out of the contest threads altogether after that, as I could then start a separate thread from 1st of January. Let me know if you have any thoughts about how these almanac reports are adding or subtracting from the contest threads. PM would be fine, not that big a deal. ...

Almanac for 1st December

The highest daily mean (1772-2020) was 12.1 in 1775. It was also 11.2 in 1772. The mildest since 1775 has been 12.0 in 1939 and since then 11.0 in 1979. Other mild mean daily values include 10.6 (1876 and 2000), 10.5 (2006) and 10.4 (1817).

The lowest daily mean (1772-2020) was -3.0 in 1947. This replaced -2.1 from 1796. Between 1796 and 1947, some other very cold first of Decembers include -1.4 (1846) and -1.0 (1879), and since 1947 the coldest value has been -2.0 (2010) with -1.4 (1973) and -1.2 (1978). 

The highest maximum (1878-2020) was 13.8 in 1985 which replaced 13.4 from 1939. Other warm values include 13.4 (2015), 13.2 (2000), 13.1 (1974), 12.9 (1954), 12.6 (1979, 2006), 12.5 (1899) and 12.4 (1945). 

The highest minimum (1878-2020) was 10.6 in 1939, which replaced 9.2 from 1928. Since 1939, 9.3 in 1979 and 9.1 in 2001 have been the highest minima.  

The lowest maximum (1878-2020) was -0.4 in 2010. This replaced 0.4 from 1947. Other cold days included 1.4 (1903) and 1.8 (1879).  

The lowest minimum (1878-2020) was -6.4 in 1947, which replaced -4.5 from 1912 and before that -3.8 in 1879. Since 1947 the coldest was -5.3 in 1973, and since then, the coldest readings were -4.4 in 1978, -4.1 in 1980, and -3.6 in 2010. 

The wettest 1st of December (1931-2020) in the EWP data was 24.53 mm (1975) followed by 17.50 mm (2005), 14.85 mm (1966), 14.74 mm (1992), 13.16 mm (1934), 11.25 mm (2003), and 10.50 mm (1961).

The wettest week ending 1st December (25th Nov -1st Dec) was 62.61 mm in 1992, followed by 59.00 mm in 1954, 52.68 mm in 2003, 51.75 mm in 1939, 50.63 mm in 1965, and 49.31 mm (2009).

The least amount falling in a week ending 1st December was 0.20 mm in 1994, followed by 0.26 mm in 1962, 0.37 mm in 1957, 0.46 mm in 2016, 0.60 mm in 1989, 1.17 mm in 2013, 1.25 mm in 1955, and 1.62 mm in 1948.

-----------------------------

(map for 01 Dec 1947,  very cold interval) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1947&maand=12&dag=01&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

Edited December 2, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Will we see another marked downward adjustment this month. I suspect final figure will be either 7.6 or 7.7 degrees. A mild November but not overly so largely thanks to the cold last week.

[Summer Sun]

Confirmed as 7.3c

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[LetItSnow!]

For the christmas pudding an actually slightly cooler than average November, about half a degree above 1961-1990 though. A very unremarkable figure. 

Using the 1991-2020 figures 6 months this year have been above average and 5 below. Now to see where December takes us. 

[summer blizzard]

Slightly below the 1991-2020 average then and a large adjustment.