November 2021 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2020-21 competitions

[Summer8906]

5.9 and 90mm.

[Stationary Front]

7.2 with 96mm please

[reef]

Slightly milder and wetter than average:

8.1C and 131mm

[rwtwm]

Let's go for a notably chilly 5.7c please. With 81mm rainfall.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7.7C, 197mm

[syed2878]

My guess for November I personally think it’s going to be a mild November I am going with 9.5c I also think it will be quite wet so precipitation I am going with 110 mm.

[stewfox]

7.9c 156mm

[Cymro]

5.4 and 89mm

[Typhoon John]

I'm going to revise my guess down to 8.2

[Roger J Smith]

On 25/10/2021 at 11:50, feb1991blizzard said:

6.4c and 76mm initially please.

just also wondering please when are the annual CET standings going to be updated please.

Nothing unusual is planned, the update would be around the 2nd after we know the October CET value. The contest was updated by J10 at the end of September as you probably know, if you're wondering about balancing a late entry revision against a known scoring situation, then I would guess evening of Monday 1st to mid-day Tuesday 2nd is your likely time frame for getting the info but you can usually estimate how you'll do from this -- if you are middle of the pack in a given month, you will likely not see much change in your contest ranking, if you are say bottom quarter you may go down 3-5 ranks and top quarter can go up by 3-5, winners may advance by as much as six or seven (although this late into the contest, maybe five is the limit, at least in the top half of the contest, there is more room for change in the lower half). 

(edit) _ I had a look at the specifics from the scoring after September, many of the top ten have fairly low scoring forecasts for October, summer18 (11.8) could go from fourth to first after the scoring, 5th place Reef (11.7) and 6th Quicksilver1989 (11.6) could move up into a tight grouping with the leaders, as the current top three will come back to the field; my own forecast score and impact on the overall scoring (currently 7th place) depends much more on the adjustment, every 0.1 they go down from the likely finish of 12.4 is probably worth five spots for me in the monthly scoring, but I am the only person in the top ten above the likely outcome so for everyone else the adjustment won't make any relative difference.

From 8th to 10th, davehsug in 10th (11.5) will move up too, dancerwithwings (11.1) will stay around current 8th and mulzy (10.7) will probably lose a bit of ground from 9th. So I think what you're going to find is that the current top ten (let's make it eleven with 11th place Summer Sun at 11.2) will squeeze together with some jostling of positions but as all but summer18 of the top four predicted below 11.0, not much relative change in position, so I also looked at ranks 12-20 to see if anyone could make a major move up, Leo97t in 14th (12.0), EdStone in 18th (12.1) and Polar Gael 16th (12.8) look to be the ones who could improve by more than a couple of ranks, and I think perhaps then the top fourteen including them will not have a very wide range of total scores after October.  Any other really close October forecasts are either part-time entrants not in the main contest or are down the list where they will probably move up more than a few spots. 

If the eventual leader after October makes a consensus sort of forecast you pretty much have to go near the extremes to have much of a chance unless you're in second and the points differential is small. If the leader goes wide right or left though, almost anyone in the top ten can theoretically pass them but then can they also pass the other contenders? This is probably the closest end of a contest I can recall. 

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Polar Gael]

6.4°C and 75.2mm for me please. 

[swfc]

7.3 and 148mm for me thankyou

[summer blizzard]

8.4C, 110mm.

A depressing mild and zonal month.

[seaside 60]

Been wrong most of this last year including some way off guesses much like last month. 

Lets see what this year brings.

6.8c

98mm

 

[Weather-history]

6.9C and 95mm

[Weather-history]

A very dry November is a rare event, infact a  dry November is not really that dry when compared to other months.

Driest November on record for England and Wales was in 1945 and is not even in the top 50 driest months of all time for England and Wales, driest in the last 30 years for England and Wales is 2004 with 52.8mm. There have been two drier months this year than November 2004. 

 

[Roger J Smith]

7.8 C and 145.7 mm, can see it getting very wet towards the end of the month. 

[Stargazer]

I think it could be quite stormy - let's say 7.9 and 126mm.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with slightly colder 6.0c and a drier November at 85mm.

[The PIT]

Going for 9C and 50mm of rainfall.

[Fozfoster]

8.0c and 75mm thanks

[booferking]

6.4C & 88mm

[damianslaw]

Recent November's have been topsy turvy on the CET front, 2015 very mild, 2016 was preety cold and indeed brought low level snow here briefly, 2017 close to average with a cold end, 2018 very mild, 2019 preety chilly, 2020 very mild again.

Following the topsy turvy pattern, I'm going a little cooler than average this year.. think the first half will average out around average, with cool conditions to begin with cancelled out somewhat by milder conditions before mid-month, second half of the month predominantly chilly, possibly something notably colder than average by the end of the month.

I'll go for 6.3 degrees.

[Midlands Ice Age]

7.1C and 89.9 mms please

MIA

[emmett garland]

7.1oc and 132mm please