November 2021 C.E.T. and EWP contests -- final month of the 2020-21 competitions

[Roger J Smith]

__________________ _ _ _ 

This month is the final stage of the 2020-2021 competition year. CET November historical information in part 1 below, EWP in part two. Good luck !!

 

C.E.T. forecast competition -- averages and extremes for November

15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938)

14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947)

10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994

 9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011
 9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015
 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938
 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743

 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730

 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817

 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 

 8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009

 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821)

 8.5 ... tied 14th warmest Nov 2002, 2020 (with 1899, 1951, 1953, 1978)

 8.4 ... tied 20th warmest Nov 1997 (with 1913)

 8.3 ... 22nd warmest Nov  2018

 8.2 ... (two years tied 23rd warmest, 1822 and 1963) 

 8.1 ... tied 25th warmest Nov  2003, 2006 (with 1729, 1946)

 8.0 ... tied 29th warmest Nov 1982, 1984 (with 1661, 1710)

 7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999 

 7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986

 7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004

 7.6 ... (note that 17 of the 50 warmest Novembers have occurred since 1981) ... 

 7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001  ... ... ... ---- average of 2001-2020 ---- 

 7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1991-2020 ---- 

 7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ......

 7.2 ... ... ... ... 

 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- average of 1981-2010 ----

 7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008

 6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1971-2000 ----

 6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012, 2017

 6.7 ... ... ... ...

 6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1961-1990 ----

 6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- average of 1901-2000 ----

 6.4 ... ... ... ...

 6.3 ... ... ... ...

 6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013, 2019

 6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- average of all years 1659-2020 ---- (6.09)

 6.0 ... ... ... ...

 5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ......  ---- average of 1801-1900 ----

 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ......   ---- average of 1701-1800 ----

 5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... ...  ---- average of 1659-1700 ----

 5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were  1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest)

 4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest)

 4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985

 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923

 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910

 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851

 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684
 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807
 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915
 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782

--0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791)

--2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965)
--4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904)
__________________________________________________
the warmest 13 are bold type, the more average 15 (due to ties) are italic type, and the coldest 12 are underlined.

daily records are for the period 1772 to 2020
monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2020

Enter your CET forecast by Sunday, October 31st at midnight, or with increasing late penalties on the first three days of November.

===============================================================================

(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest -- November 2021

__ contest is scored using Hadley EWP data __

__ winter month snowfall is converted by liquid equivalent, roughly 10:1 reduction factor, e.g. 10 cm snow = 10 mm precip __

 

202.5 mm __ 1852 _ wettest 1766-2020 ... also second wettest month to Oct 1903

200.8 mm __ 1770 _ 2nd wettest ... also third wettest month overall

196.5 mm __ 1940 _ wettest of 20th century... 1929 had 195.9 mm

192.1 mm __ 2009 _ wettest since 1981

110.2 mm __ 1925-54 highest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

106.1 mm __ mean for 1991-2020 ... 

100.4 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

 93.8 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2020

 76.9 mm __ 1845-74 lowest 30-year average for Nov (since 1766-95)

 67.9 mm __ 2020

 50.2 mm __ 1988 _ driest since 1981 

 23.1 mm ___1805 _  second driest 1766-2020

 17.0 mm ___1945 _ driest 1766-2020 

___________________________ ** __________________________

Recent November EWP  ... 12-year average is 110.1 mm ... 

2020 _ 67.9 mm ... ... 2019 _ 138.1 mm

2018 _ 104.9 ... ... 2017 _ 81.0 ... ... 2016 _ 116.6 ... ... 2015 _ 126.7 ... ... 2014 _ 126.8

2013 _ 79.2 ... ... 2012 _ 135.8 ... ... 2011 _ 52.9 ... ... 2010 _ 97.5 ... ... 2009 _ 192.1

>>> Enter your EWP forecast in mm with your CET forecast, same deadlines 

Good luck in this final contest of the current competition year. 

[Weather26]

7.6C and 96MM to kick us off please.

[Bobd29]

7.3C and 82mm please.

[JeffC]

6.7C and 100 mm please

[virtualsphere]

8.0C and 132mm please

[Typhoon John]

9.5C please

[Earthshine]

8.5C and 140mm please

[Freeze]

7.2c and 88mm please.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Freeze

[Shillitocettwo]

  I see November being predominantly mild, sometimes very mild with daytime temperatures  in the upper teens but it won't be a blanket mild month with the odd Arctic air mass paying a brief visit. 8.8.C and 88mm please

[BlueHedgehog074]

Maybe being a bit low with this guess, but will go for 6.5*C please. 70mm rain/snow. Variable chillier and warmer spells at times, perhaps with some wintry weather developing over Northern UK towards the end of the month. 

[SLEETY]

7.3 60mm

[John88B]

6.6C 150mm please. 

[Frigid]

7.3C and 75mm. I don't see an overly cool November which would make Autumn 2021 one of the warmest. 

[coldest winter]

8.3 and 78mm for me thanks

[Dancerwithwings]

7.6c cheers 

[NeilN]

7.9c and 103mm

[Godber 1]

5.5c and 110mm please.

[Summer18]

6.9C & 120mm

[Stevew]

8.0 and 98mm for me!

[Radiating Dendrite]

5.9c and 78mm

[feb1991blizzard]

6.4c and 76mm initially please.

just also wondering please when are the annual CET standings going to be updated please.

[Frigid]

On 23/10/2021 at 10:29, Frigid said:

7.3C and 75mm. I don't see an overly cool November which would make Autumn 2021 one of the warmest. 

Well, this didn't last long. Changing to 5.8C and 60mm. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7.3C and 89.6mm please 

[Methuselah]

7C and 100mm please. But I can already feel an adjustment brewing!

[DR(S)NO]

6.5c and 125 mm

Thank you please