SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, Dami said:

I see your 30 c and rise you this :

 

My green house if i had one will trump that

[Norfolk Sheep]

Chortling at the 20C difference in projected temps between Sat and Sun next week!

Surely 2 or 3 weeks at 24-26C on a daily basis isn't too much to ask.......

[Kentspur]

32c was touted earlier at Heathrow  dropped to 31c now. UKV is crazy 36c in Eastern England!

[lottiekent]

While everyone else is getting 30c forecast, as always the forecast for the coast underplays the heat completely. Never, ever is it right in these set ups - the MO are currently only showing a high of 21c Friday which is utter rubbish (even if I wish 21c was going to be correct!).

I’ve screenshot the forecast, which will change almost hourly anyway, to compare with what actually happens:

 

 

This morning is sunny, breezy from the NE and 14.6c at present.

[Norfolk Sheep]

I'd just like a warmer air mass. 

OK, the sun is strong now but the minute it goes behind a cloud the temperature drops like a stone in this cool wind. 

[Robert1981]

Hi everyone I am new ,I am not a fan of very hot weather 35 is to hot 25 is good for me. Its only going to be a short spell of hot weather but I think another heatwave is coming a week later. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not sure if my weather station is wrong but once again the Heathrow urban heat island strikes...

Current outdoor temp 24c

Forecast temp 20c 

 

4c higher! Checked local stations to me all the same..  

[Dami]

I embraced the new 'granny trend' and wore a long dress and cardie this morning, everyone in jeans which is unusual for my village because normally as soon as the sun shines someone's in  shorts and that includes winter too. But it was jolly cool. In fact i have been in my cardie most of the day and now it's just perfect with the sun out. 

I took delivery of a linen blend shirt for the hot spell as i burn something awful these days.  I will be embracing the  ''It's too hot too care' trend by Friday. I am not looking forward to 30+. 

Beer in fridge as a reward.

I haven't started the 'heat haters' thread as i saw there was a 'no summer' one and i thought it would be like starting a ' too many storms' thread. 

But if peeps still want it to moan on just like this post and i'll get it up and running.

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by Dami

[Blessed Weather]

2 hours ago, Robert1981 said:

Hi everyone I am new ,I am not a fan of very hot weather 35 is to hot 25 is good for me. Its only going to be a short spell of hot weather but I think another heatwave is coming a week later. 

Hi Robert. Welcome to the SE & EA Regional thread.  I think many of us would agree with you and be happy with 25C, although some of us weather nutcases also enjoy a quick blast of 35C and a thundery breakdown! It certainly looks like many in the Region will see 31C - 33C on Friday, but atm I'm not optimistic for our chances of a thundery breakdown - that's looking more to the west of the Region.

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Robert. Welcome to the SE & EA Regional thread.  I think many of us would agree with you and be happy with 25C, although some of us weather nutcases also enjoy a quick blast of 35C and a thundery breakdown! It certainly looks like many in the Region will see 31C - 33C on Friday, but atm I'm not optimistic for our chances of a thundery breakdown - that's looking more to the west of the Region.

I don't know whether I would like 35°C,most of my friends are ginger (don't ask me how)and seeing as I'm the Weatherman of the group they'll take it out on me

[Robert1981]

Thank you for the welcome, love the weather and thunderstorms I agree with u the only reason I like hot weather is for thundery breakdowns. I will keep a eye out might need to go for a drive to see where there are might not be local. 

[Eagle Eye]

Then he waddled away

Till the very next day

(Great now got that stuck in my mind now)

[Kent Blizzard]

I don't mind the warm/hot days.....it's the warm nights that get to me!

This morning had a lovely fresh feel, then was fairly warm this afternoon out of the breeze.

 

[lottiekent]

23 hours ago, lottiekent said:

While everyone else is getting 30c forecast, as always the forecast for the coast underplays the heat completely. Never, ever is it right in these set ups - the MO are currently only showing a high of 21c Friday which is utter rubbish (even if I wish 21c was going to be correct!).

I’ve screenshot the forecast, which will change almost hourly anyway, to compare with what actually happens:

 

 

This morning is sunny, breezy from the NE and 14.6c at present.

Morning! It got down to 7.8c here last night but already shot up to 16.2c.

MO showing a high of 18c today so that will definitely be exceeded.

Comparing yesterday’s end of week forecast for my location, they’re still predicting similar:

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a bit of mid level cloud this morning, hopefully this will break up/clear as the day goes on.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

14 hours ago, Dami said:

I embraced the new 'granny trend' and wore a long dress and cardie this morning, everyone in jeans which is unusual for my village because normally as soon as the sun shines someone's in  shorts and that includes winter too. But it was jolly cool. In fact i have been in my cardie most of the day and now it's just perfect with the sun out. 

I took delivery of a linen blend shirt for the hot spell as i burn something awful these days.  I will be embracing the  ''It's too hot too care' trend by Friday. I am not looking forward to 30+. 

Beer in fridge as a reward.

I haven't started the 'heat haters' thread as i saw there was a 'no summer' one and i thought it would be like starting a ' too many storms' thread. 

But if peeps still want it to moan on just like this post and i'll get it up and running.

 

Was 25c here yesterday evening 27c inside my garden office... certainly not like the weather you seemed to have experienced yesterday!

Can't wait for the heat! Bring it on! Of to ibiza in 4 weeks time CANT WAIT!!

[Dami]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Was 25c here yesterday evening 27c inside my garden office... certainly not like the weather you seemed to have experienced yesterday!

Can't wait for the heat! Bring it on! Of to ibiza in 4 weeks time CANT WAIT!!

My village seems to have it's own micro climate. It certainly wasn't 25c as i would have noticed - it was just pleasant. It's the same with storms -we either give birth to them around here, they scoot around or they break up. 

Enjoy your Holiday!

[Dami]

13 hours ago, Robert1981 said:

Thank you for the welcome, love the weather and thunderstorms I agree with u the only reason I like hot weather is for thundery breakdowns. I will keep a eye out might need to go for a drive to see where there are might not be local. 

Hey! I am exactly the same. We as a family get ill during hot weather so a nice thunderstorm is always a silver lining

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Losts of posts quoting temperature charts..

Here is another comparison ..

I'm down for a max temperature of 23c at 3pm today.. let's see how far out that is!

Current reading from weather station @ 11am 

[lassie23]

My weather station says the pressure is high and low and that it is sunny, thundery and rainy. The temperature on it is a record breaker for London 188cWho needs to light a BBQ when you can cook your food by just sticking it out of the window

[Eagle Eye]

The ECM suggests significant thunderstorms are possible Saturday night, with what look to be imports, developing over the north sea and the channel.

Shear is forecast to be significant with this, I would suggest the potential for Supercells and with 50 knots of low-level shear tornadic potential is possible if Storms can form to be more isolated rather than an MCS which would be very scary at night (consider that shear typically strengthens at night as well).

Deep-layer shear of 70 knots is incredible for the UK and does suggest Supercellular development is quite likely, which models such as the ECM find it hard to

Multiple models are beginning to show an idea of some CAPE forming over areas across the east or the south of the UK on Saturday in the day, the ECM on the lower end of this.

The Swiss model has a ridiculous significant tornado parameter that would suggest to me that a tornado is potential in the day as well with Supercellular development possible, I would suggest the midlands may be the best place in the day, with a low CAPE high shear event that seems to be modelled by quite a few models but it needs that CAPE to actually occur.

A couple models showing significant CAPE on Friday, the Canadian model on the extreme end of that.

Looking at it from a sense of model agreement and we're finally getting it for Saturday.

Significant cross model agreement for Saturday with troughing to the South and a low to the North. This is good for two facts, it rises the potential for imports and typically, trough's seem to push North quicker than modelled and so, in the day, CAPE could be higher than the ECM is currently showing and in theory the UKMO is the most likely to be correct. Supercellular wise, shear is more likely to advect quicker and even though temperatures may be weakened slowing down the breaking of any CAP but once the trough passes over your area, that CAP is likely to erode quickly. Theta-W is likely to advect even further North than currently modelled, rising the potential for Plume Storms to be elevated and move further North and we're far enough away from the centre of the trough that these values are unlikely to cool down by the time night arrives.

Finally we have some agreement here and with that, comes, what I expect, temperature agreement in the next couple runs especially from these models, the GFS is out on it's own now, so don't worry about it's temperatures.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

25.8c here now... 

[Captain Shortwave]

23c with good sunny spells and just a light breeze. Perfect day really.

[Robert1981]

It's been a warm afternoon with some patchy cloud here near Norwich, I think Friday is going to be a struggle for me. 

[Dami]

yep been around 23c with a nice breeze. Hardly any cloud, would happily have every summer day like this. Unless its a thunder day ofc

Edited June 14, 2022 by Dami