SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Reefseeker]

Question for the knowledgeable. Looking at the radar, this morning's showers seem to be coming from the south west. In my mind, the breakdown etc was forecast to come later today from the north west-ish, Wales included  moving south east. In the meantime a sunny day was forecast. Was the shower activity missed in the forecasts or did I miss something?

Looking again at the radar, perhaps it's that the rain band is wider and we are picking up rain from its south-east edge.

Edited June 18, 2022 by Reefseeker

[sunnijim]

22 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Question for the knowledgeable. Looking at the radar, this morning's showers seem to be coming from the south west. In my mind, the breakdown etc was forecast to come later today from the north west-ish, Wales included  moving south east. In the meantime a sunny day was forecast. Was the shower activity missed in the forecasts or did I miss something?

Looking again at the radar, perhaps it's that the rain band is wider and we are picking up rain from its south-east edge.

Sorry,you got me.

I stand corrected here but my understanding is this,the Low over Portugal that is 75miles or so further North than expected at this time seems to have

A, slowed the progress South of the cold Front and

B, allowed instability working up from the continent to fire showers to the South of the front.

We could see increased destabilisation working in from the continent to allow storms to pop up ahead of the slow moving cold front.

Edited June 18, 2022 by sunnijim

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

20 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Question for the knowledgeable. Looking at the radar, this morning's showers seem to be coming from the south west. In my mind, the breakdown etc was forecast to come later today from the north west-ish, Wales included  moving south east. In the meantime a sunny day was forecast. Was the shower activity missed in the forecasts or did I miss something?

Looking again at the radar, perhaps it's that the rain band is wider and we are picking up rain from its south-east edge.

My main model that I focus on is the wrf nmm 2km it hasn't been fussed at all for developing storms whereas the ukv was more keen to, the issue I think is at play is CIN (convective inhibition) 

Convective Inhibition (CIN): Definition & Role in Forecasting | Study.com

STUDY.COM

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In this lesson, you will learn about the meteorological concept of convective inhibition, how it impacts potential thunderstorm development, and...

 

Here's the latest wrf nmm 2km showing the CIN  along with that there isn't much CAPE to speak of  the front is probably giving enough forcing to generate those showers but with the lack of CAPE in combination with high CIN they are unable to grow into big storms that some were possibly expecting

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

My main model that I focus on is the wrf nmm 2km it hasn't been fussed at all for developing storms whereas the ukv was more keen to, the issue I think is at play is CIN (convective inhibition) 

Convective Inhibition (CIN): Definition & Role in Forecasting | Study.com

STUDY.COM

---

In this lesson, you will learn about the meteorological concept of convective inhibition, how it impacts potential thunderstorm development, and...

 

Here's the latest wrf nmm 2km showing the CIN  along with that there isn't much CAPE to speak of  the front is probably giving enough forcing to generate those showers but with the lack of CAPE in combination with high CIN they are unable to grow into big storms that some were possibly expecting

 

 

That CIN is shrinking tonight as I thought it would with the arrival of the troughing and so I would say that the Storm chance will hold strong it's just where it is as the front suggests a more northern initiation but CAPE may extend as far south as expected but also extend more northern.

[Tn9]

18 hours ago, Lauren said:

This heat is absolutely fine abroad. I can go about my day breaking a light sweat at most, if at all. Here I'm just a constant sweaty mess. Still, it's nice to have some heat for a few days before it cools down again

 

Can't imagine you will  ever be  a constant sweaty mess ,girls get hot ..thats it ..I'm glad its not so oppressive today and I have just got first dollops of the day ....bliss 

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, Reefseeker said:

Question for the knowledgeable. Looking at the radar, this morning's showers seem to be coming from the south west. In my mind, the breakdown etc was forecast to come later today from the north west-ish, Wales included  moving south east. In the meantime a sunny day was forecast. Was the shower activity missed in the forecasts or did I miss something?

Looking again at the radar, perhaps it's that the rain band is wider and we are picking up rain from its south-east edge.

But just before the front arrives it would be sw ..then veer north West after ..so instability before would be from sw ..I know its not that cut and dry but ..

[Reefseeker]

Thank you so much @sunnijim @kirkaldyweather @TN9 and @Eagle Eye for your analyses and explanations, really appreciate it and it just goes to show what a great weather community this is. Plus I've learnt about something called CIN:) BTW Kirkaldy, I love that you are around so many threads on this forum. Hope doesn't appear completely lost for thundery convection later so I'm keeping fingers crossed. Careful what I wish for, I'm out with friends tonight and inevitably roll home midnight at the earliest, which may coincide with a storm or two. All the best everyone.

[Stroudley]

A max of 27.9C for us, just before lunch. The cloud cover and increasing NE breeze has taken a degree or two off that now, but still quite warm enough, thank you. 

Some very large spots of rain about an hour ago, but dry again now. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Just a normal wet and cool day in the north of region. The clear skies had gone just before daybreak. The cloud is pretty much high based and as such it has occasionally looked bright, but that’s all.

[lassie23]

A cooling breeze has blown the heat away, I c an't see the point of temperatures above 27c personally. Sort it out God.

[Dami]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

A cooling breeze has blown the heat away, I c an't see the point of temperatures above 27c personally. Sort it out God.

when i was a young girl those sort of temperatures pretty much guaranteed a storm, so yes sort it out mate.  

[Iceman2606]

Hot - 17 June 2022 Time-Lapse

 

[Stroudley]

That north-easterly is really picking up now and becoming quite significant. We've had to shut windows and doors on that side of the house as things were getting blown over...

[Harry's House]

29 minutes ago, Stroudley said:

That north-easterly is really picking up now and becoming quite significant. We've had to shut windows and doors on that side of the house as things were getting blown over...

This wind has certainly taken away the humidity here. Doors slammed shut by wind blowing through open windows. 

[dubmuffin]

26.5c at 12.30 today, now 14.2c with a chilly wind. Gradually rerobing throughout the day. Swapped the shorts and vest top for winter leggings and a hoodie. Swapped the salad for sausage pasta Winter is coming!

[Norfolk Sheep]

7 minutes ago, dubmuffin said:

26.5c at 12.30 today, now 14.2c with a chilly wind. Gradually rerobing throughout the day. Swapped the shorts and vest top for winter leggings and a hoodie. Swapped the salad for sausage pasta Winter is coming!

I've got me onesie on...

[Norfolk Sheep]

7 minutes ago, dubmuffin said:

26.5c at 12.30 today, now 14.2c with a chilly wind. Gradually rerobing throughout the day. Swapped the shorts and vest top for winter leggings and a hoodie. Swapped the salad for sausage pasta Winter is coming!

I've got me onesie on...

[Eagle Eye]

Replacement of less unstable air parcels around the channel island looks to be replaced for some more unstable ones very slowly, with the movement of it, I would suggest that they will ride up the convergence which looks to be happening now and moving North, I expect more Storms to form with this. Very slowly moving North I would say but still signs of it moving North.

[lassie23]

I have a snail invasion of my garden

[Dami]

Our heating just kicked in.

Alexia still thinks it's gonna thunder.

wrong area hon.

Edited June 18, 2022 by Dami

[Wivenswold]

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Should start to see some lightning on here soon.

[lassie23]

Got thunder

[Blessed Weather]

Radar looking very interesting.

21.35:

[Wivenswold]

1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

Radar looking very interesting.

21.35:

Yes. if you get that, so will I. At the very least we should see some lightning tonight. 

[Eagle Eye]

Loving the sky here