SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Blessed Weather]

You couldn't make it up! Here in the Suffolk desert we desperately need some rain. So with a big change to the UK weather arriving this weekend in the form of a slow moving Low Pressure, my hopes have been raised. And then I look at this morning's GFS 0z run and don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Have a look at this, first the animation of the Low swirling around and throwing up bands of rain over the UK. Then a chart showing the model's estimation of cumulative rainfall over the next 10 days. Come on GFS, you're taking the proverbial!!

Cumulative rainfall, 10 days 31st Aug to 10th Sept:

Edit: Thankfully the 6z run has around an inch of rain for most of the Region.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Comment on 6z added.

[lottiekent]

Still warm here this morning, up to 21.3c at the moment but very breezy also which is nice.
 

Looking forward to maybe, perhaps (probably not) getting some rain in the next few days at last.

[John Stevens]

So guys and gals in the SE, life in our new home in Al Ain, UAE, is going well. Settling into our new teaching jobs and the new school year has been hectic but fun! Any way last Wednesday we had a half hour downpour, preceded by a brief sandstorm! At that point we had been here for two weeks…but my calculations it had been a further seven weeks before we left the UK that we had seen rain at our former home in the  Surrey Hills!! 
 

I’ve been told that there is increased rainfall here in the UAE in recent years due to cloud seeding and also the planting of large swathes of trees in the newly developed coastal and inland areas…i know the cloud seeding science and expiration of trees is the main driver of weather here but also the large cyclonic Indian Ocean weather systems that develop as well. 
 

in any case…seeing rain, standing in it and smelling it was amazing!

[Reefseeker]

Had a very light shower earlier and the radar shows precipitation moving north-west of here. Sun back out now with milky skies. As the autumnal feel slowly kicks in, the days are noticeable for how hot it gets when the sun is out but how cool it feels when it's cloudy. A lot of evenings bring beautiful cloudscapes that look as if they could deliver torrential rain but then just thin out and disappear. Loving the cooler nights although early darkness is not my thing.

[Freeze]

Very warm today, 26c despite the wind.

[Harry's House]

14 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Very warm today, 26c despite the wind.

Certainly feels humid here. Sky looking unstable.

[Dami]

On 25/08/2022 at 21:25, Snowflake Queen said:

Yesterday in Southend on sea was beautiful now usually on my birthday I see rain , had a slight bit in the am on the way there …so glad I went yesterday. Today was a much needed cooler day with plenty of rain ️ 

happy belated birthday!  

[Tn9]

On 31/08/2022 at 07:57, Blessed Weather said:

You couldn't make it up! Here in the Suffolk desert we desperately need some rain. So with a big change to the UK weather arriving this weekend in the form of a slow moving Low Pressure, my hopes have been raised. And then I look at this morning's GFS 0z run and don't know whether to laugh or cry.

Have a look at this, first the animation of the Low swirling around and throwing up bands of rain over the UK. Then a chart showing the model's estimation of cumulative rainfall over the next 10 days. Come on GFS, you're taking the proverbial!!

Cumulative rainfall, 10 days 31st Aug to 10th Sept:

Edit: Thankfully the 6z run has around an inch of rain for most of the Region.

We here to have same problem ...showers to west and east, recent radar goes to show unless its in the bag it isn't ..I call it AIBM....:(

AS IF BY MAGIC

Edited September 1, 2022 by TN9

[Tn9]

23 hours ago, John Stevens said:

So guys and gals in the SE, life in our new home in Al Ain, UAE, is going well. Settling into our new teaching jobs and the new school year has been hectic but fun! Any way last Wednesday we had a half hour downpour, preceded by a brief sandstorm! At that point we had been here for two weeks…but my calculations it had been a further seven weeks before we left the UK that we had seen rain at our former home in the  Surrey Hills!! 
 

I’ve been told that there is increased rainfall here in the UAE in recent years due to cloud seeding and also the planting of large swathes of trees in the newly developed coastal and inland areas…i know the cloud seeding science and expiration of trees is the main driver of weather here but also the large cyclonic Indian Ocean weather systems that develop as well. 
 

in any case…seeing rain, standing in it and smelling it was amazing!

IMG_8238.MOV

Dont mention seeding ...not here in this forum  your get jumped on .....:-( ...

Edited September 1, 2022 by TN9

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Dont mention seeding ...not here in this forum  your get jumped on .....:-( ...

Yes but the UAE do cloud seed officially, we 'officially' don't. Of course unofficially we might but I don't see much use of it especially this year if we do and our climate is already naturally (usually) wet enough for us not to do it.

[John Stevens]

17 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Dont mention seeding ...not here in this forum  your get jumped on .....:-( ...

that comment reminds me of this

[Freeze]

Nice surprise little thunderstorm here, and torrential rain!

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Nice surprise little thunderstorm here, and torrential rain!

Yeah, slight risk with some more Surface Based Storms possible overnight but I don't think it'll be much, although if you do catch one you might get some more rain for the garden as a bonus but how much of it wont just flow off, I have no idea.

[Stroudley]

4 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Nice surprise little thunderstorm here, and torrential rain!

Yes - have just been in the car, and the heavy rain on the roof was deafening and roads were starting to flood, even after just a few minutes.  We momentarily hit 29C in the garden mid-afternoon, before quickly dropping away again. 

[Tn9]

23 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

that comment reminds me of this

Cor your taking a risk my friend ...religiously and meteorology wise ..

..believing in seeding and its knock on effects to other places ..but I was sent down the swaney with it ..I know it does , you know it does ,it must have a butterfly affect ..like kicking the can down the road...but no, I was a nut case .. I'm no scientist  but it must have an affect somewhere else ...like coal ,like wood ,and at its extreme asbestos..miracle stuff at the  time now we won't go near it with barge pole:(

Edited September 1, 2022 by TN9

[Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Yeah, slight risk with some more Surface Based Storms possible overnight but I don't think it'll be much, although if you do catch one you might get some more rain for the garden as a bonus but how much of it wont just flow off, I have no idea.

It's fairly frequent lightning every 30 seconds or so, seen about 8 flashes followed by some deep echoing booms. 

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Freeze said:

It's fairly frequent lightning every 30 seconds or so, seen about 8 flashes followed by some deep echoing booms. 

Wish I was there, maybe see if you could get some videos(please )so it feels like we're there,us in the SE thread will get something to cheer about then (and those who are afraid of Storms will be glad to know that it's localised and pretty much only affecting Freeze and I don't think it last too much longer).

[Freeze]

[Wivenswold]

That area of rain heading north towards Southend has pepped-up in the last few minutes. 

[Tn9]

As if by magic .,hey ho ..big bang ...yea

[danm]

Was the rain now properly forecast? 

[lottiekent]

Naff all here as usual. So near, yet so far.

Still 20c too which is horrible. I know I shouldn’t want a cold winter due to us all being near bankrupted by fuel bills, but I am so done with humidity and the house being too warm

[slater]

After not seeing any mean full rain the last 5 months , and not too much this Far East for next week as well…However heading to North Wales for the week tomorrow, unbelievable timing after working all through the heat of summer, so a little depressed about that,as heavy rain and gusty winds forecast for the whole week for that part of the uk…No surprise being close to that low pressure just sitting there spinning around and spinning and spinning and spinning you get the idea lol

[Dami]

morning.

Very humid out today, had some rain over night and this morning. Feels lovely and cool atm.

Clouds have that blue-grey-ness I associate with stormy stuff. 

[minus10]

Well, its the same old story...

Seems that no matter where the lows are...fronts or no fronts the south east is just not getting the rain..having said that we had 2mm last night...wahaay...