SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Blessed Weather]

55 minutes ago, TN9 said:

If you was in the desert gasping, it would have been a god send... if you was floating in flood waters it would have been the devils work...but  gorgeous here today not a cloud in the sky since fog cleared couple of spits and spots yesterday but nothing to write home about

Same here this morning TN. Very misty, murky start with not a breath of wind, but now a beautiful day with a fresh SW'ly breeze. The satellite shows most of the Region under clear sky earlier, but some cloud out west (a rapidly decaying front) moving our way for later.

09.40:

Source: https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

[Dami]

1 hour ago, TN9 said:

If you was in the desert gasping, it would have been a god send... if you was floating in flood waters it would have been the devils work...but  gorgeous here today not a cloud in the sky since fog cleared couple of spits and spots yesterday but nothing to write home about

It was straight out of a comedy. But after 40c i don't mind a splash of rain, even without a coat. It wasn't cold either.

[Blessed Weather]

A couple of heavy but short-lived showers this afternoon. A mild day with the temperature reaching 16C. Some lovely sunset colours as the shower clouds melt away this evening.

[Tn9]

On 15/10/2022 at 11:54, Dami said:

It was straight out of a comedy. But after 40c i don't mind a splash of rain, even without a coat. It wasn't cold either.

Well you seem to say ,by what you replied ,is 

.....sometimes we make a manhole out of a mole hill or a mountain out if one,If we can  ,but like you said again  ,its ok ,it wasn't that bad

mate I still can't wash fhe car ....here lol 

[convector]

Anyone else find it interesting how the temperatures increased right after sunset? not what you'd usually expect. Ive known it happen before in january 2015, where temps got up to 17C at around midnight, but that was a different scenario. That year we had a rampant jet stream due to el nino. But now we're in la nina and im quite enjoying all the dry/settled weather

[Blessed Weather]

4 hours ago, convector said:

Anyone else find it interesting how the temperatures increased right after sunset? not what you'd usually expect. Ive known it happen before in january 2015, where temps got up to 17C at around midnight, but that was a different scenario. That year we had a rampant jet stream due to el nino. But now we're in la nina and im quite enjoying all the dry/settled weather

I didn't notice myself, but checking back it was down to a Warm Front moving north, bringing patchy rain and leaving the Region in the warm sector overnight (and indeed this morning as the Cold Front that looked as if it was moving in from the west fizzled out, so the slightly cooler air mass didn't arrive).  Some supporting charts:

Fax Chart Sun 18.00:  Rainfall Radar 18.00:

The GFS 850 hPa temperature chart (air temp at approx. 1,500m) shows the Region in the warm sector:

Mon 05.00:

[Reefseeker]

Agreed @convector and @Blessed Weather. Our fridge door informed us the outside temperature had risen from 16 to 17 degrees around midnight and I awoke at 3am with the indoor temperature at 70 degrees and no heating. The warmest night for quite some time.

A greyish day today, odd bit of blue showing through the clouds and leftovers from the earlier rain on the windows and pavements. Basically an autumn day; loving the trees turning now.

[Eagle Eye]

Later on this week, Wednesday night and there looks to be some significant WAA(Warm Air Advection) pushing up energy from the South (varying amounts on the models but most seem to have at least some) due to a widespread advection of theta-W values well into the 14's. There looks to be some CIN but too little to avoid the whole event and also some DLS (Deep-Layer Shear) so even the models with low CAPE values, there should be enough shearing to help with height and longevity of any Storms as well as organisation into an MCS or a squall line. There's not much tilting to the trough so any extra kick by a negatively trough is unlikely at this time but there is a plane of relative vorticity that should help with initiation so as long as there is some CAPE there, something should be created if the rest goes to plan.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Sunset of the year here in my opinion.

(One of the only times that I will take a photograph in portrait mode)

[Iceman2606]

Vibrant sunset over Northamptonshire this evening.

[Blessed Weather]

And here in Suffolk too. Amazing colours filling the sky....

[Dami]

lovely and cool and misty. Lovely Autumn morning 

[Lauren]

Going away for a couple of days for my birthday this weekend and of course it's forecast to chuck it down the entire time

[Norfolk Sheep]

Well, isn't this a splendid early summer's day!!!

[Iceman2606]

Sunny & misty fields with sheep from this morning here in Northamptonshire.☀

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Well, isn't this a splendid early summer's day!!!

Scorcher after a nippy start ,gorgeous...except for one cloud in the sky

well a couple.. but high ,know I look at picture 

Edited October 18, 2022 by TN9

[Freeze]

It's 19c and been pretty much blue skies all day. Summer clinging on!

[RebsAbbo]

Just making a quick visit to the capital, I left a very cool Yorkshire this morning (6c) and worrying about my choice of wardrobe….thinking I might need to buy something warmer! However, no, my instinct (and weather forecast) was right….wall to wall sunshine all the way from Yorkshire to Central London, with a high of 18c on arrival. A beautiful Indian summer’s day.

As a typical northerner I’m now in short sleeves & melting on the tube as locals go about their business in winter coats

[Eagle Eye]

A lot of Storm potential this week based off the 15Z UKV.

Thursday morning: MCS formed likely due to an enhanced DLS and a lobe of PV I would think because we're on the Western side of it, the lightning extent is unknown.

Friday to Saturday: Likely some surface based CAPE and then some elevated Storms due to a lack of theta-W just strong enough to hold some Storms together in the diminishing low level CAPE.

And then likely some frontal rain with built in squall lines on Sunday, perhaps but it doesn't seem to be on the ECM. 

 

[RebsAbbo]

Still 13c here at 10.40pm, warm enough to enjoy the evening’s diesel fuelled air (I mean electric of course). But seriously, it is pleasant out there on my balcony, breeze just gently picking up now. 

[Blessed Weather]

15 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

A lot of Storm potential this week based off the 15Z UKV.

Thursday morning: MCS formed likely due to an enhanced DLS and a lobe of PV I would think because we're on the Western side of it, the lightning extent is unknown.

(SNIPPED)

Interesting to see the UKV view EE. We're only 24 hours out and there remains model disagreement with regard Thursday's rain and possible storms. My Meteogroup Weatherpro app suggests a storm here on early Thurs morning and nearly 12mm (half inch) of rain during the day. Looking at the cumulative rainfall forecasts to 23.00 on Thurs we have Arpege forecasting barely a drop in the west of the Region, but over 10mm for the east, whilst GFS goes the other way around with over 20mm forecast for the west and barely a drop for the east. Take your choice!

Arpege:  GFS:

[Eagle Eye]

My risk for today and till about 10am tomorrow

Zooming in on the SE and East Anglia risk:

Quite the contrast in forecasts as @Blessed Weather says.

The UKV has quite the late arrival but a strong MCS but there is a split between Kent and the northern parts of East Anglia where nothing happens.

AROME has the most amazing October MCS possibly ever, then another one.

ARPEGE has a more northern based MCS followed by a northern flank MCS which is likely followed by moderate rain in that typical after a failed MCS look.

ICON has a less energetic MCS followed by some slightly more substantial CAPE early Friday morning.

ECM has a first MCS perhaps caused by strong potential vorticity mixing with the high theta-W values that the others either haven't picked up or it's an ECM mistake.

All in all, there's wide differences including in timing and so I'd take an umbrella with you just in case.

[Dami]

it is lovely out there today. A few degrees warmer and can the summer be like this (lol) Almost blow touch wind.

My looking at tonight's forecast  but alexa has them thunder symbols too so we know what that means! 

Nothing on Met0 regarding any rain for me, but thats not been overly right for a while.

 

[Freeze]

Just nudged 20c and it's sunny, could easily be summer here.

[RebsAbbo]

Sunny & 17c in central London. Again short sleeves & summer gear on, had sun all the way travelling back up north. Soon as I’ve hit Yorkshire the thermal top & cardi went on . Still saying it’s 12c but it’s dark & it feels cool! Cheers guys