SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Polaris]

How confusing this must be for Joe Public from Meto latest tweet.

East Kent looks good for snow but does not mirror the warning area. Very strange

[Polaris]

52 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Expecting a mainly cloudy day for the whole region tomorrow, many areas seeing a few light flurries even if they miss out on the main action 

Hi Tim, 

That would be nice but I’ve seen no TV/ online forecasts confirming that. Just dry and cloudy away from more organised ppn (if) happens. Hope you’re right 

[pinball wizard]

1 hour ago, Polaris said:

How confusing this must be for Joe Public from Meto latest tweet.

East Kent looks good for snow but does not mirror the warning area. Very strange

 

The warning covers from 6pm to 9am and you've shown a chart for a one hour period. The warning also is quite clear in showing low chance of medium impacts..... 

[Polaris]

26 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

The warning covers from 6pm to 9am and you've shown a chart for a one hour period. The warning also is quite clear in showing low chance of medium impacts..... 

I screened shot the most with snow. It clears from Kent and then is clear until 9am across the entire region and it’s absolutely no where near any other counties. 
 

Like I say, confusing to the public looking at warning area with only ppn over Kent the entire time!!! 
 

 

[pinball wizard]

49 minutes ago, Polaris said:

I screened shot the most with snow. It clears from Kent and then is clear until 9am across the entire region and it’s absolutely no where near any other counties. 
 

Like I say, confusing to the public looking at warning area with only ppn over Kent the entire time!!! 
 

 

Get what you are saying but the warning is about the risk of impacts not necessarily saying it will happen. Met office will be aware of and using many models to work out the chances of anything happening, they've clearly seen a possibility which could result in impacts albeit low chances, hence their warning showing low probability of medium impacts. Don't think there's anything too confusing about that but each to their own 

[lottiekent]

Frost stuck all day in the shade so as the temp dropped below freezing quickly early evening it froze solid again.

Then we had several graupel/sleety/hail showers that did this!! All hard surfaces with a white covering despite the cloud cover bringing the air temperature back over freezing for now

 

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by lottiekent

[Summer tyre]

 

For goodness sake! This snow is streaming off the coastline at the (far east) end of my road, I reckon!

Edited December 10, 2022 by Snow tyre

[alexisj9]

It's not snow, it's heavy ice. Looks like rain, sounds like breaking glass, giving a white covering of tiny ice crystals.

[bluebell]

Plain old rain here, temp up to 3.7 degrees, disappointing but not unexpected I guess…

[alexisj9]

Oh and for some reason wind switched, the lighter end before it stopped was going east, and I couldn't tell if it was rain or something else.

[Tn9]

3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

 Basically yes.  Normally shows up in a northeasterly wind just above Ramsgate, but there isn't a wind farm where that showers last night was, I don't think.

I didn't have a clue zbout that ,well thought of znd  seen....:)

[Tn9]

4 hours ago, Polaris said:

Since the cold temperatures began the Meto have forecasted ‘dry and cold’ here and they were not wrong. 
 

Next 7 days for here is also ‘dry and cold’ 

With such low temps by day and night for such a long period, I don’t think I can ever remember such a DRY cold spell with a North and East based airmass. 
 

Good luck to those SE and E of London tomorrow. Fingers crossed you guys in that local can saviour the dryness. 

See its where some thing sets its self up (circulation wise )models struggle with that ,like big area of relatively low pressure 1008 -1012 say ,it knows its that because of readings ,but like tropical disturbances it's not sure where exactly  the circulation will be ,but to us it means everything,dont forget unlike summer convergence,its the opposite ,we are not going to get an on shore unless there is forcing ,sea is so much warmer than land however you look at it

And thats a radar job ..as is  

Edited December 10, 2022 by TN9

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, TN9 said:

See its where some thing sets its self up (circulation wise )models struggle with that ,like big area of relatively low pressure 1008 -1012 say ,it knows its that because of readings ,but like tropical disturbances it's not sure where exactly the circulation will be ,but to us it means everything,dont forget unlike summer convergence,its the opposite ,we are not going to get an on shore unless there is forcing ,sea is so much warmer than land however you look at it

And thats a radar job ..as is  

Not just radar, you can't tell yet, but I think the wind has switched, was blowing west to east, but now seems to be east to west.

[Tn9]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Not just radar, you can't tell yet, but I think the wind has switched, was blowing west to east, but now seems to be east to west.

Hang fire im going to my out post to have a look aj

Yea your spot on ,low level at least:) if anything south south east  or sorry south east to north west 

Edited December 10, 2022 by TN9

[Mark wheeler]

Arome encouraging on its latest run

[Tn9]

20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Arome encouraging on its latest run

20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Arome encouraging on its latest run

If you look carefully radar wise the showers have nearly come to a stand still and the first northerly  motion has started little further east than forecast,let's hope it stays that way huh 

29 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Hang fire im going to my out post to have a look aj

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

It's not snow, it's heavy ice. Looks like rain, sounds like breaking glass, giving a white covering of tiny ice crystals.

Was going to say it sounds like graupel to me but have changed my mind when I realised "looks like rain", maybe freezing rain but I have no idea what freezing rain is to be honest.

[Nick F]

35 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Arome encouraging on its latest run

Yep, find the high res AROME is often the best at simulating convection in the summer, lets see it's any good with snow tomorrow  ....

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, find the high res AROME is often the best at simulating convection in the summer, lets see it's any good with snow tomorrow  ....

 To be honest that already happening, the shower over me is now moving east, was moving west a few hours back. Never mind I mean slightly WNW.

Edited December 10, 2022 by alexisj9

[matty40s]

If it's any help, the wind for the last 48 hours has been very variable here....not the Northerly blast we were promised.

[Eagle Eye]

Quoting myself from the model thread

 

"The downstream effects of the East Asian jet retraction interest me. We're into the time where we can see the clear amplification of Rossby thermal transfer cropping up on the models in a fairly reliable time although exact handling will be very off at this point. The effects on how Eddy's are handled may be negative but the generalised conception of increasing Eddy Heat Flux especially in the upper Troposphere may be slightly better handled than usual. Usually , this would probably increase the -VE AO but we're in such a -VE AO dip that it may just delay the recovery of the AO through the formation of that UK and/or Scandinavian blocking signal that's starting to persist on the models. It's still too far out to worry about localised dynamics of the high but the signal is showing for the blocking to form and of course how it forms will affect the short term gain at that time but as long as the wandered blocking pattern keeps up the relative pattern flip cold throat should exist. I think up until very late December potentially later than that, this pattern may be able to keep itself going synoptically hence the cold chance probably persists till around early January. Then we've got the potential MJO influence helping us into the second week of January  (effects would be later on) and that may happily coincide with another energy scattering PNA cycle.

Me thinks the scattering of energy interacting with the more southerly based jet will drift up hot air from North Africa which may cause some areas of Europe to see ridiculously mild air for this time of year and probably not something you associate so close to a quite significant -VE AO pattern. Just using 1 model run to show what I mean is probably not a good idea at the time range that I'm talking about and it goes against my principals but I'm just using it to show the mild air that could possibly be drawn up.

It's very unlikely to look anything like that but it does show what could be drawn up by the energy and amplification scattering interacting with the high just off the coast of North Africa. A very interesting thing as we go closer to time I think but we still can't be sure that the North African (ish) High will be interacted with nor the direction that its drawn up so we could end up seeing one extreme or the other.

 

Looking more into the short term future...

Initial pulses of colder air in a cold pattern and maybe the formation of a shortwave or something similar that could still end up dumping a decent amount of snow somewhere, then...

 

Cold air that would normally look blocked in fairly well seems to get thwarted to the south and a pulse of amplification correlated with the  downstream effects of the PNA pattern (correlated with the East Asian jet retraction fairly well, funny how everything links together) but how long it stays for is hard to tell for now. There is a chance it could just be a mild blip and that it goes on to prop up the -VE AO pattern as discussed earlier. Or it could hold itself in for longer and set itself in for a longer time, for now I just don't know and its fairly evenly balanced."

 

 

 

 

[Nick F]

12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

 To be honest that already happening, the shower over me is now moving east, was moving west a few hours back.

Sounds like near the coast it's mostly rain / sleet / graupel? Though have seen on twitter it was snowing at Capel-le-Ferne up on the North Downs / cliffs.

Guess will be similar tomorrow, onshore flow over E Sussex, Kent and Essex and it may be rain near coasts, go 10 miles inland or higher elevation and snow.

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Nick F

[alexisj9]

It's thee ice type of sleet here and it's landing like snow, occasional gruaple at times. When it was ice it sound like when you sweep shattered glass.

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's thee ice type of sleet here and it's landing like snow, occasional gruaple at times. When it was ice it sound like when you sweep shattered glass.

Doesn't sound to pleasant to be out in.

Those hoping for some sunshine tomorrow could be disappointed, looks like it will be rather grey in a raw NE wind, so colder by a degree or two as a result. Maybe some flurries in the wind north and west of London, but to the south and east - some snow developing from the south afternoon/ evening, rain/sleet near coasts.

[alexisj9]

This is  what it looks like but it hasn't snowed, and not gruaple lol