SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[all weather]

8 hours ago, TN9 said:

Big boys always take an average ...like warmest June warmest this warmest that...not a patch on last years temps is it or are we all looking for 40c now ..32 33c nothing now is it ..its summer ..but where I am  its dry ..and its rained hard dont get me wrong ...but not what we or I would call wet ...and not wild fire dry but  ...sort of nothing ..

Yep, the beauty of IMBY weather reporting, we don't get to hear about in the news.

Everything green here now, unlike you most probably. Your time will come

[Tom Montalbano]

Afternoon all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

It was such a relief last Night, to finally get a comfortable Sleep , after the high humidity of recent Nights.

I know the Met Office were slated on here, regarding what was seen as a poor Forecast for Rainfall, a while ago.

Being a fully paid up Member of Dami's "Heat Hater's" Club, I really do hope the Met Office are spot on with the last sentence in each of the following Long Range Forecasts, for the timescale quoted. 

My dearly departed Mum's Country of Italy can keep the 40C+ heat, thank you very much.

Roll on Autumn!!

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 16 Jul - Tuesday 25 Jul

On Sunday, Persistent rain across the northeast should gradually ease. Elsewhere a mix of sunshine and showers, these most likely to be more frequent in the west. Some eastern and southern areas may stay dry. Showers are expected to be generally less intense or heavy than of late, although some heavier showers and thunderstorms still possible, mainly across the north. Winds moderate to fresh, locally strong and temperatures mostly rather cool. Later, low pressure to the northeast will draw cooler northwesterly winds across the UK, bringing sunshine and showers, possibly heavy and thundery, especially across the west. Often breezy, especially in the west and north. Temperatures a little below average for the time of year.

Wednesday 26 Jul - Wednesday 9 Aug

Showery conditions most likely continuing, although perhaps winds moving round to the west to northwest. Most precipitation still in the form of showers although perhaps some longer spells of rain at times too. Temperatures likely to return closer to normal, although the chance of very warm or hot conditions looks to be lower than average.

P.S. 

Below, a very detailed explanation regarding thr Jet Stream, from Alex Deakin of the Met Office:

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Tom Quintavalle

[Methuselah]

It's raining in Canterbury. Come on you weather! 

[Tn9]

In Swanley today ..two drops...that was it nada ..

9 hours ago, Methuselah said:

It's raining in Canterbury. Come on you weather! 

What you doing ..a pilgrimage...did rain dance for mr t  becket ....:)

Edited July 12, 2023 by TN9

[Methuselah]

10 hours ago, TN9 said:

In Swanley today ..two drops...that was it nada ..

What you doing ..a pilgrimage...did rain dance for mr t  becket ....:)

I'm a Kent supporter. 

[lassie23]

hissing it down here

[Dami]

Just had a lovely summer down pour

which smelt salty so dont ask

[Tn9]

Whoop whoop ten minutes of rain in Orpington at lunchtime today im over the moon ..

[Tn9]

10 hours ago, Methuselah said:

I'm a Kent supporter. 

Oh my god no !!!!!...which side of the waveney are you !! Lol l ..st Lawrence  ground  ?..we used to have matches in Tonbridge at   one time  long  long ago..the  angel ground ..but sainsbury s bought it plonked a supermarket on it ....but we still got  cowdrey this and that for old times sake

[IanT]

Will the winds forecast for Saturday be a notable event? Is there a thread somewhere to discuss?

MetO have a yellow warning out; I assume those are set in absolute not relative terms. 45-50mph gusts for my area would be distinctly unseasonal.

[all weather]

14 hours ago, IanT said:

Will the winds forecast for Saturday be a notable event? Is there a thread somewhere to discuss?

MetO have a yellow warning out; I assume those are set in absolute not relative terms. 45-50mph gusts for my area would be distinctly unseasonal.

Does look like a very windy period coming up, more like October, with all this wind and rain.

Gusts in the 40's, although the other day it was also very gusty.

[Reefseeker]

Not looking forward to driving to my mother's in the west country tomorrow. It looks as if we'll have some strong gusts to contend with all the way from Surbiton, across Salisbury Plain and out the other side towards Frome. I just hope it calms down while we're there so we can take my mother somewhere; as anyone with elderly parents at a distance know, they rely on visits to get out and about.

The rain arrived by 10am this morning, not too heavy under light grey skies but the radar suggests heavier stuff on the way.

[Blessed Weather]

16 hours ago, IanT said:

Will the winds forecast for Saturday be a notable event? Is there a thread somewhere to discuss?

MetO have a yellow warning out; I assume those are set in absolute not relative terms. 45-50mph gusts for my area would be distinctly unseasonal.

It will seem very noteworthy for our part of the UK at this time of the year. Arpege model suggesting gusty winds building during Saturday afternoon and peaking at up to 85 kmh (52 mph) during Saturday evening, so some disruption possible from fallen branches and speed restrictions on bridges, etc..  For members with Netweather Extra radar you'll be able to turn on the Current Weather/Gusts overlay to check wind speeds from official weather stations during the day.

Our SE Regional thread is as good a place as any to discuss these events. The Storms and Convective Discussions thread is normally thunderstorms. If the Met Office name the storm then we usually start a specific thread in the Storms and Severe Weather area, but I don't believe this system has been named, just warnings issued.

Arpege wind gusts Sat evening:

[Eagle Eye]

12 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

It will seem very noteworthy for our part of the UK at this time of the year. Arpege model suggesting gusty winds building during Saturday afternoon and peaking at up to 85 kmh (52 mph) during Saturday evening, so some disruption possible from fallen branches and speed restrictions on bridges, etc..  For members with Netweather Extra radar you'll be able to turn on the Current Weather/Gusts overlay to check wind speeds from official weather stations during the day.

Our SE Regional thread is as good a place as any to discuss these events. The Storms and Convective Discussions thread is normally thunderstorms. If the Met Office name the storm then we usually start a specific thread in the Storms and Severe Weather area, but I don't believe this system hasn't been named, just warnings issued.

Arpege wind gusts Sat evening:

Intensifying jet streak exit region. Really weird setup for summer here, normally I'd be hoping for low-level WAA and we wouldn't notice it much as it's a smaller BOB trough normally so would come with weaker winds and a few storms. The direction of this low is very winter like rather than summer wise.

[snow raven]

I'd rather have this weather any day to having the heat that Europe is experiencing.  Last year's record breaking temperatures were something I never want to see repeated!!

[Snowangel-MK]

On 11/07/2023 at 08:09, MAF said:

wow! just seven weeks until autumn, thanks for that tom  

It might as well be autumn or winter today, it’s certainly not feeling very summery here but I did get a beach day in on Wednesday thankfully, if only it hadn’t just been a cheeky day trip to the Norfolk coast

[MAF]

well seeing as it's my birffday today, i might take a cheeky trip to the pub on my way home   

 

[Snowangel-MK]

4 minutes ago, MAF said:

well seeing as it's my birffday today, i might take a cheeky trip to the pub on my way home   

 

I made cake this morning, I’d send you a slice if I could happy birthday anyway x

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, MAF said:

well seeing as it's my birffday today, i might take a cheeky trip to the pub on my way home   

 

Happy birthday!!!

[MAF]

5 minutes ago, Snowangel-MK said:

I made cake this morning, I’d send you a slice if I could happy birthday anyway x

or i could come and collect it .... if only i could   

[Blessed Weather]

At my daughters and an interesting sky here in Rochester this afternoon as the weather fronts approached, although forecast rainfall accumulation right up to midnight Saturday not much at all for the far SE corner.

 

[alexisj9]

32 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

At my daughters and an interesting sky here in Rochester this afternoon as the weather fronts approached, although forecast rainfall accumulation right up to midnight Saturday not much at all for the far SE corner.

 

We've certainly not had much today, a little drop this morning. Other than that it's actually been quite warm sunny and humid. Patchy cloud, certainly much better than I expected.

[Lauren]

Absolutely chucking it down here. 

[Blessed Weather]

24 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Absolutely chucking it down here. 

Yes, some decent rain over the last couple of hours. It'll be interesting to check actuals tomorrow, but I suspect the Arpege rainfall forecast I posted could be a bust.

[snowrye]

5 hours ago, MAF said:

well seeing as it's my birffday today, i might take a cheeky trip to the pub on my way home   

 

Happy birthday MAF