SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Freeze]

Dry here, I'm literally on the border of the rain.

[alexisj9]

Confused .com lol, front with rain gone north, now have ppn blowing in from the east, while that other front is moving west. Might turn into an interesting night later perhaps.

[snowrye]

Morning, just stepped out the flat, and this caught my eye a treat

[Freeze]

Bright sunny morning here, I see there are some heavy showers approaching in the channel..

[Blessed Weather]

No real let up in the very wet October of 2023. The last week of the month shaping up to be very wet for the south of the Region with multiple fronts sweeping through as low pressure dominates. Anywhere south of the M4 looks particularly soggy. There's the potential for 100 to 125mm (4 to 5 inches) of rain for Sussex if GFS is to be believed with ECM not much better suggesting the possibility of up to 100mm. This month on course to go down as a record breaking wet one!

Here's the cumulative rainfall from Tues 24th to month's end from GFS and ECM:

 

Sources:
GFS https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php 
ECM: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-rain-acc?base_time=202310240000&projection=opencharts_north_west_europe&valid_time=202310311800
 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Blessed Weather
Clarified period for chart rainfall is 24th to 31st.

[Summer tyre]

Glorious morning with CN marching like elephants in single file through the Channel

[Shaunado]

There's a yellow warning for tonight's rain in the SE: 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Shaunado said:

There's a yellow warning for tonight's rain in the SE: 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Though that was more rain I could see on radar coming up from France again.

[Shaunado]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Though that was more rain I could see on radar coming up from France again.

Yep, but at a glance I don't think E Kent is going to get the worst of it. I expect some heavier convective bursts in the mix will be the reason why the warning is warranted.

[Blessed Weather]

At least the fungi are enjoying the wet weather. There seems to be a bit of a fungi frenzy going on in my neighbour's garden!

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

At least the fungi are enjoying the wet weather. There seems to be a bit of a fungi frenzy going on in my neighbour's garden!

Had some in July, disappeared in August, haven't spotted any since. Got some spring bulbs coming through now though, think the October warm spell confused them 

[Vortex3929]

3 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

At least the fungi are enjoying the wet weather. There seems to be a bit of a fungi frenzy going on in my neighbour's garden!

For some reason, that looks really creepy to me.

[PiscesStar]

21 minutes ago, Vortex3929 said:

For some reason, that looks really creepy to me.

It's flourishing not creepy lol after such a dry summer for us in SE it's making up for lost time  

Edited October 24, 2023 by PiscesStar

[IanT]

7 hours ago, Shaunado said:

There's a yellow warning for tonight's rain in the SE: 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

This yellow warning has just been updated - essentially to cover a larger area westward. However the MetO forecast for my location (S of Woking, well within the area shown) has hardly any rainfall at all. I’ve not seen that before, usually the forecasts and warnings seem well sync’ed. We’ll see which is right!

[Summer tyre]

Yellow warning. Meh. I mean - it's raining here now, although neither the radar nor the predictions think it should be.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Snow tyre

[Snowangel-MK]

Blue sky, sunshine and pumpkins down on the patch MK today   

[MAF]

Apparently I would make a good model for a scary face on a pumpkin 

[Snowangel-MK]

2 hours ago, MAF said:

Apparently I would make a good model for a scary face on a pumpkin 

….the witches in MK are not so scary

and it’s  certainly a lot drier back here than it was in Shropshire. 

 

 

 

[MAF]

4 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

….the witches in MK are not so scary

and it’s  certainly a lot drier back here than it was in Shropshire. 

always knew you was bewitching  

Edited October 25, 2023 by MAF

[Shaunado]

A low-probability yellow warning   for rain in the SE issued for this weekend. 

Looks like southern coastal areas are at greatest risk of more significant accumulations and therefore disruption, bearing also in mind the wet weather already this week.

I kinda hope to hear a rumble or 2 again before the year is out to bring my thunder day count into double figures, but I'm not holding my breath!

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[IanT]

9 hours ago, Shaunado said:

A low-probability yellow warning   for rain in the SE issued for this weekend. 

My sense - and it is no more than that - is that the MetO are getting too trigger happy with weather warnings. The forecast(s) I’m looking at look seasonal, nothing more.

If warnings are so frequent and for weather that is neither particularly threatening or unseasonal - then they will lose their impact. The same is true of “storm” naming. Not every system is a storm. We’ve seen the impact of sensationalism in mainstream journalism and politics; it will be a shame if the same happens in meteorology.

[pinball wizard]

1 hour ago, IanT said:

My sense - and it is no more than that - is that the MetO are getting too trigger happy with weather warnings. The forecast(s) I’m looking at look seasonal, nothing more.

If warnings are so frequent and for weather that is neither particularly threatening or unseasonal - then they will lose their impact. The same is true of “storm” naming. Not every system is a storm. We’ve seen the impact of sensationalism in mainstream journalism and politics; it will be a shame if the same happens in meteorology.

I agree to an extent, but also feel the Met O have been caught with their pants down twice in a week. First they messed up in under forecasting rain amounts across East Anglia last Friday, then yesterday they underestimated rainfall across the Isle of Wight. In both instances severe flooding occurred. Now, following these events a) they're under a bit of scrutiny and b) relatively smaller scale rainfall events could have greater than usual impacts due to higher river and water table levels. 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, pinball wizard said:

I agree to an extent, but also feel the Met O have been caught with their pants down twice in a week. First they messed up in under forecasting rain amounts across East Anglia last Friday, then yesterday they underestimated rainfall across the Isle of Wight. In both instances severe flooding occurred. Now, following these events a) they're under a bit of scrutiny and b) relatively smaller scale rainfall events could have greater than usual impacts due to higher river and water table levels. 

Think the water vapour from hunga Tonga or whatever it's called, is making rain intensity difficult to forecast at the moment, the atmospheric rivers are huge and I think that may well be where the extra moisture is coming from.

[pinball wizard]

6 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Think the water vapour from hunga Tonga or whatever it's called, is making rain intensity difficult to forecast at the moment, the atmospheric rivers are huge and I think that may well be where the extra moisture is coming from.

The increase in water from the volcano won't be helping, nor will the planet warming up. In fact the combination of both things is possibly responsible. Warmer air can hold more water, more warm air + more water = lots of flooding 

[Tom Montalbano]

A very good Morning, all S.E. Regional Members,

I hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

As it's been such a long time since I posted on the S.E.Regional Thread, that you're probably expecting a Tome and I don't think you'll be disappointed!!

Before I forget, I must thank Malcolm [BLESSED WEATHER], for providing me with the info for completing this post. More on that, later.

I was rudely awoken at 2.30 A.M., by the Moon shining through our open Bedroom blinds and curtains.  

Did any other S,E, Member, suffer the same interrupted sleep as myself? 

My Wife insists having the curtains open wide, as she is worried I will fall A over T, during any overnight trips to the Bathroom.

Hope Malcolm doesn't mind but I'm going to introduce a musical interlude, at this juncture.

At precisely 2.30 A.M., Yours Truly was: 

The Moon then continued its Celestial journey and fortunately by the time it reached mid window, it had become partially obscured by a large Tree, at the end of our Close but then emerged again at about 3.45 but by this time the damage had been done, and I was wide awake. 

Therefore, shortly after I decided to get up and come downstairs.

Meanwhile, the Missus was blissfully unaware of my plight, and was lightly snoring.

But at least the noise emanating from her nostril isn't as bad as when her Sinus problem is playing up and sounds as if she is doing impressions of legendary Jazz Trumpeter, Miles Davis. Fairly recently, I asked if she did requests? I don't think she found that funny but I just replied, So What :

Much thanks to Manfred Mann's Earth Band and Miles Davis, above.  

Hope that wasn't a problem, Malcolm. 

Can't understand why Colette feels the need to have the curtains wide open, as she insists on leaving our landing light on, too.

Yes, my balance is still compromised after a Stroke I suffered 8 years ago but our Bathroom is only a few yards outside of our Bedroom and a long way from the top of our stairs and in any case, there are railings guarding the drop to our left, as we emerge out of our Bedroom.

Therefore, there is very little chance of injuring myself by trying to vault over those railings!!

And I gave up attempting a - 

 - Fosbury Flop, during my School Days. 

Bless her, my Wife justifies her wanting to wrap me in cotton wool by stating, "You were in a Coma, when I saw you "die", when your heart stopped beating", 

But I do heed my Wife's advice as she has had a lot of experience caring for an old f--t myself, in her former role as a Senior Carer, in a local Residential Care Home - 

As I have been penning Limericks in my Horse Racing Competitions, this is one I composed as a tribute to my Wife:

ODE TO COLETTE'S OVERPROTECTIVENESS

Let me introduce to my Wife, who is also my Carer

But of the trousers, she is certainly the Wearer

Likes to make a Fuss

Leaving me to Cuss

But despite all this, I still wouldn't share Her. 

Right, that's all the frivolity dealt with, it's now time to get serious and back On Topic, and the original reason for this post.

Well, what a strange Summer we've just experienced.

After that record breaking Junr and being a fully paid up Member of the "Heat Hating" Club of our Dami, I must admit I feared the worst and was fully expecting another July/August "sweat fest", as we experienced last Year.

But as was often explained on TV Forecasts, we often found ourselves on the cool Northern side, of the Jet Stream.

This had the effect of trapping all that "horrendous" heat, over Southern Europe.

It was only into September when the Jet Stream shifted North temporarily and with High Pressure setting to our East, a Southerly flow tapped into that heat, for a short while.

What has amazed me about this Summer, is for about the 5th consecutive Year here in S.E. London, Thunder has been virtually non existent  during the 3 Meteorological  Months, of that Season.

This can be seen from the following charts, kindly supplied to me by Malcolm: 

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY [June]   LIGHTNING ACTIVITY [July] LIGHTNING ACTIVITY [August]  LIGHTNING ACTIVITY [Sept]

                             

Still having a fear of Lightning/Thunder, I was obviously very pleased to have "dodged another bullet", this Summer.

But I must admit, it must be very frustrating for you Brontophiles, out there in our Region.

I did mention to Malcolm that I thought the North of our Region fared better than the South, Lightning/Thunder wise.

Having had an Italian Mother [R.I.P],  the Summers tend to be hot and dry there. Thunder that does occur tends to be courtesy of converging winds from the Adriatic and Med, over the mountainous Central spine, of the Italian peninsular. Then whichever arm of the converging winds is stronger, any T/.Storms that occur tend to drift down on to the plains either side of the Apennine Mountains.

I've seen that sort of scenario, when I've been visiting  my Italian relatives.

I did mention in the last couple of years that I felt the climate of our Region was becoming Mediterranean like.

With most Thunder Days coming during the transition from Spring > Summer, and then at the other end. Summer > Autumn.

Just like last Year I rhink, here in S.E. London we experienced more Thunder in May, than we did for the whole of the Summer.

We did experience a few passing rumbles in late August but hardly noticeable. All very strange.

Of course this Summer for the our Region and the U.K. in general, was anything but Mediterranean like!!

But as I stated to Malcolm, if I was a Thunder lover I wouldn't give up hope of seeing/hearing Lightning/Thunder before Autumn is finished with us. Below, are the current Sea Surface Temperatures, just offshore of Brighton and Bournemouth:

/ 

With an unstable flow from the S.W, along the English Channel, cool air aloft interacting with those relatively high S.S.T.'s, , I wouldn't be at all surprised, to hear that our extreme coastal districts of Hants, Sussex and Kent, have experienced some heavy Thundery Showers.

Of course, once we get to November those S.S,T.'s start to dip and our attention turns to the Eat and the North Sea/Thames Estuary and Snow Lovers will be hoping that very cold upper air will be approaching from the East as we head towards Winter, hopefully with the promise of our Regions, Snow Streamers, from between North and East.

Right, end of Tome.

Much thanks again to Malcolm [BLESSED WEATHER], for supplying those Lightning activity charts for this Year's, Summer Months and Sept.

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Tom Quintavalle