South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[John88B]

2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Nothing here yet! Mind you we are only at 200 metres. Met office app always over egg the snow risk. Its relatively mild today at 1.6c. DP about 0.5. If we are to get anything significant today I'd suggest it will  a 300 m/asl event, certainly during the day.

Radar is pretty bare at the moment for the moor.

The forecast I saw said rain, sleet and snow but turning more readily to snow as the day goes on.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Nothing here yet! Mind you we are only at 200 metres. Met office app always over egg the snow risk. Its relatively mild today at 1.6c. DP about 0.5. If we are to get anything significant today I'd suggest it will  a 300 m/asl event, certainly during the day.

Radar is pretty bare at the moment for the moor.

Oh how I wish this was Bournemouth.  

[festivalking]

5 minutes ago, John88B said:

The forecast I saw said rain, sleet and snow but turning more readily to snow as the day goes on.

Yes overnight could be interesting. Not that it is always right but the absence of any weather warning makes me wonder if it will be just fluff in the breeze mind you anything that falls from the sky should add to the ice risk.  Sunday morning was an ice rink round here.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Yes overnight could be interesting. Not that it is always right but the absence of any weather warning makes me wonder if it will be just fluff in the breeze mind you anything that falls from the sky should add to the ice risk.  Sunday morning was an ice rink round here.

By lunchtime there will be a warning for the sw I would think.

[festivalking]

When the sun comes up this is a very useful webcam

 

Dartmoor Princetown Live Webcam

CAMSECURE.CO.UK

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Live streaming webcam from Princetown in Dartmoor Devon UK. This live webcam shows views from Princetown towards the moors and the infamous...

 

[iowpompeylee]

21 minutes ago, festivalking said:

When the sun comes up this is a very useful webcam

 

Dartmoor Princetown Live Webcam

CAMSECURE.CO.UK

---

Live streaming webcam from Princetown in Dartmoor Devon UK. This live webcam shows views from Princetown towards the moors and the infamous...

 

Are there any more updates for tonight’s skirting precipitation? How far it may get? 

[SizzlingHeat]

17 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Are there any more updates for tonight’s skirting precipitation? How far it may get? 

Probably stop half a mile from the coast knowing my luck lol

[camturbo]

Slight dusting last night and thats the first snow I've seen, not exactly enough to make a snow man for my son but something non the less. What is the consensus next. How far is this feature going to get? Any ideas?

[SizzlingHeat]

5 minutes ago, camturbo said:

Slight dusting last night and thats the first snow I've seen, not exactly enough to make a snow man for my son but something non the less. What is the consensus next. How far is this feature going to get? Any ideas?

Ecm has the furthest inroads from the front, JUST about getting into South Dorset, South Devon and cornwall, but thats the limit. GFS has the precip literally skirting the immediate coastline of Dorset but no further. Other models keep the front out in the channel. No models show any accumulation aside from across South devon over the hills. But Sunday's system was a surprise for many, so perhaps this could surprise many of us and be further north. Unlikely but probs best to keep checking the radar for any surprises.

[Skullzrulerz]

Been checking the Met Office forecast near St Austell, rainfall from 9am to just after midnight.

Snow forecast has been downgraded to oblivion, light snow was forecast for about 8 hours on Wednesday Morning.

Now it's sleet/light snow for 2 hours just after midnight.

Oh well

[camturbo]

14 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Ecm has the furthest inroads from the front, JUST about getting into South Dorset, South Devon and cornwall, but thats the limit. GFS has the precip literally skirting the immediate coastline of Dorset but no further. Other models keep the front out in the channel. No models show any accumulation aside from across South devon over the hills. But Sunday's system was a surprise for many, so perhaps this could surprise many of us and be further north. Unlikely but probs best to keep checking the radar for any surprises.

Let's hope it gets further inland will be keeping an eye on the radar along with everyone else lol

[SizzlingHeat]

Just now, camturbo said:

Let's hope it gets further inland will be keeping an eye on the radar along with everyone else lol

Its annoying because the met office radar isnt working right now so no updates on here

[Singularity]

Of all the days for the radar network to take several hours off! As of 4:50 when it cut out there was somewhat closer proximity precipitation than I’ve seen modelled.

[festivalking]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Of all the days for the radar network to take several hours off! As of 4:50 when it cut out there was somewhat closer proximity precipitation than I’ve seen modelled.

Oh no any idea when it is due back on? Had to be today!

[Singularity]

18 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Oh no any idea when it is due back on? Had to be today!

It's now showing 8:05 on the mobile version of the radar but still 5:10 on the browser version... suggests they're getting there but still some issues to resolve. Hopefully it'll be back up within an hour or two!

[Nights King]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It's now showing 8:05 on the mobile version of the radar but still 5:10 on the browser version... suggests they're getting there but still some issues to resolve. Hopefully it'll be back up within an hour or two!

Think it just updated on mine.

Has not moved the ppn much further north east though. 

[festivalking]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

It's now showing 8:05 on the mobile version of the radar but still 5:10 on the browser version... suggests they're getting there but still some issues to resolve. Hopefully it'll be back up within an hour or two!

I've got to 8:15 on the browser.....baby steps!

[Singularity]

Radar Extra just jumped to 9:05.

The 'arm' is reaching a little east than UKV modelled for 09:00 but otherwise it's pretty close. UKV appears too showery with the NE flank but the radar might be smoothing out some details while it's still so far offshore.

The main uncertainty for today is how far east the precipitation makes it within the westerly upper flow before fizzling out. Forecast models are showing little interest in getting it past western Devon at the most but I've seen this process underestimated enough times past to know that some very light snow can't be ruled out further east. Nothing special for most, just a possible decoration to add to the festive ones. Convergence may boost the rates over the moors, though.

Tonight, area of positive vorticity is predicted to run east along the boundary zone - its precise track will determine where any heavier precipitation occurs.

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Radar Extra just jumped to 9:05.

The 'arm' is reaching a little east than UKV modelled for 09:00 but otherwise it's pretty close. UKV appears too showery with the NE flank but the radar might be smoothing out some details while it's still so far offshore.

The main uncertainty for today is how far east the precipitation makes it within the westerly upper flow before fizzling out. Forecast models are showing little interest in getting it past western Devon at the most but I've seen this process underestimated enough times past to know that some very light snow can't be ruled out further east. Nothing special for most, just a possible decoration to add to the festive ones. Convergence may boost the rates over the moors, though.

Tonight, area of positive vorticity is predicted to run east along the boundary zone - its precise track will determine where any heavier precipitation occurs.

Interesting really to see how the warmer air interacts with our current cold airmass in terms of inroads or skirting along the channel. Feels like a nowcasting sort of 24 hours coming up.

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Interesting really to see how the warmer air interacts with our current cold airmass in terms of inroads or skirting along the channel. Feels like a nowcasting sort of 24 hours coming up.

You look very well positioned fk. Your right I have seen these forecasts go very wrong just few hours out and end up in south wales so I just hope we see a few flurries break through into wilts just maybe 

[lettice]

Low of 0.9c at 3am
Hovered around 1c to 1.2c since then.
Now 1.6c, light grey skies, no sign of frost

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

You look very well positioned fk. Your right I have seen these forecasts go very wrong just few hours out and end up in south wales so I just hope we see a few flurries break through into wilts just maybe 

You never know.  We are on the south western slope of the moor. At 200 metres we are certainly well placed than say folks in plymouth, but we are often on the margins of a decent snowfall.  In these marginal set ups the snow line tends to be above 300 metres (only half a mile from me). We suffer in my location to the proximity of the tamar estuary, its a huge body of water and is only 5 miles away I'm sure it effects our DP and general tendency to get really cold.  

The fabled snow narnia village of princetown is but 5 miles up the road but its a hugely different climate to here.  It sits at 500 m/asl and is often 3c colder at all times of the year (sometimes 6c difference to plymouth city centre) it certainly picks up its fair share of snow days. If the ppn is there in the next 24 hours they will be in business.

 

[SizzlingHeat]

0.3c in Parkstone, Poole. Overcast with frost still on cars and roofs. Temperature only slowly going up. Wind increasing from the east

[Easily sled]

Felt bitterly cold this morning, snizzle still on ground but still waiting for first proper flakes.  Slim (very) for later on today......

[Skullzrulerz]

17 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Interesting really to see how the warmer air interacts with our current cold airmass in terms of inroads or skirting along the channel. Feels like a nowcasting sort of 24 hours coming up.

It's a shame that this could arrive later into the night, it will just be a tad too warm for snow here at the moment.

 

I'm hoping to get a weather station in the coming days so hopefully I can get better readings.