February 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Stationary Front]

Looks like 6.8 confirmed 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Confirmed as 6.8C, the 14th mildest February on record. The 30 year average is now 5.1C, a new record high.

The mean on the 16th, 10.3C, is a new daily record. Beating the 10.0C from 1928

Edited March 1, 2022 by BornFromTheVoid

[LetItSnow!]

0.4degC warmer than last April. When's the last time we had a February warmer than the April before it? The answer is February 1990 [7.3 vs 6.6]. Indeed, from memory last April seems colder than this month has been!

[Don]

21 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Confirmed as 6.8C, the 14th mildest February on record. The 30 year average is now 5.1C, a new record high.

The mean on the, 10.3C, is a new daily record. Beating the 10.0C from 1928

Not surprising but that doesn't make it any better!

[Roger J Smith]

No forecasts right on that value, noname_weather within 0.1 C and coldest winter, stevew within 0.2 C.

From the table of entries, this is the unofficial top scoring for the CET contest, subject to confirmation by J 10. 

Rank_CET _ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry) ___________________

01__ 6.7 __ 50.0 ___ noname_weather ( 51 ) ____________________

02__ 6.6 __ 35.0 ___ coldest winter ( 19 ) ________________________

03__ 6.6 __ 54.0 ___ stevew ( 38 ) ________________________________

04__ 7.1 __ 60.0 ___ SLEETY ( 12 ) _______________________________

05__ 6.5 __ ------ ___ Richie3846 ( 14 ) ____________________________ 

06__ 6.5 __ 49.0 ___ Norrance ( L1-3 ) ___________________________

07__ 6.4 __ 55.0 ___ Stationary Front ( 43 ) ______________________

08__ 6.4 __ 72.0 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ( 48 ) ______________________

09__ 7.2 __ 73.0 ___ Don ( 53 ) __________________________________ 

10__ 7.2 __ 38.0 ___ Stephen W (L1-2) __________________________

11__ 6.3 __120.1___ Polar Gael ( 13 ) _____________________________

12__ 6.3 __ 63.0 ___ Godber1 ( 58 ) _______________________________

13__ 6.2 __ 76.0 ___ dancerwithwings ( 26 ) ______________________

14__ 6.2 __ ------ ___ damianslaw ( 56 ) ____________________________

15__ 6.1 __ 55.0 ___ stewfox ( 06 ) ________________________________

16__ 7.6 __135.0___ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 08 ) ___________________

17__ 6.0 __ 80.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine ( 11 ) ______________________

18__ 6.0 __ 66.0 ___ EdStone ( 18 ) _______________________________ 

19__ 7.6 __ 50.5 ___ syed2878 ( 25 ) ____________________________

20__ 6.0 __ ------ ___ Walsall Wood Snow ( 41 ) __________________

21__ 6.0 __166.0___ Shillitocettwo ( 44 ) _________________________ 

22__ 5.9 __100.0___ Leo97t ( 10 ) ________________________________ 

23__ 5.9 __ 59.0 ___ seaside60 ( 47 ) _____________________________

24__ 5.8 __ 73.0 ___ SteveB ( 17 ) _________________________________

25__ 5.8 __ 75.0 ___ summer8906 ( 23 ) __________________________

26__ 5.8 __ 39.0 ___ snowray ( 52 ) _______________________________

(for the rest, see table of entries on page 3)

(will confirm best combined forecasts with EWP update tomorrow, looks to be on track for 100-102 mm and from preliminary scoring would say Polar Gael has the lowest (best) combined CET and EWP rankings). 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 6.8c February 2022 shares the same mean CET with February's: 

1739

1914

1926 (so that's both Jan and Feb this year, that share the same CET's with that year)

 

 

[Stationary Front]

With the following March’s recording a lower CET in those years, than the preceding Feb, admittedly a low data set!

[LetItSnow!]

56 minutes ago, Stationary Front said:

With the following March’s recording a lower CET in those years, than the preceding Feb, admittedly a low data set!

If some of the cold weather being shown in recent days comes to pass we may very well create a third example!

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

0.4degC warmer than last April. When's the last time we had a February warmer than the April before it? The answer is February 1990 [7.3 vs 6.6]. Indeed, from memory last April seems colder than this month has been!

Minimum wise, there was a 2.4C difference between the two. 3.4C (Feb) to 1.0C (Apr)

In 1903, February was 0.7C warmer than the following April

Edited March 1, 2022 by Weather-history

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 6.8c February 2022 shares the same mean CET with February's: 

1739

1914

1926 (so that's both Jan and Feb this year, that share the same CET's with that year)

 

Though the character of January 1926 at least looked very different to this year.

Looking at Monthly Weather Report the first and last 10 days or so were very mild and very wet, but the middle 10 days very cold with lying snow in places in the south.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

47 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Though the character of January 1926 at least looked very different to this year.

Looking at Monthly Weather Report the first and last 10 days or so were very mild and very wet, but the middle 10 days very cold with lying snow in places in the south.

I wonder what the character of Jan 1927 was like, which also had the same CET as 1926 and 2022 of 4.6c.

For that matter what was Feb 1926 like? With a much higher value of 6.8c I can't imagine it could have been much more wintry than this February.

It's pretty easy to imagine that another January of 4.6c could be more wintry than this years though. December 2017 after all had a CET of 4.8c but still had snowy spells, around here at least anyway.

[LetItSnow!]

30 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I wonder what the character of Jan 1927 was like, which also had the same CET as 1926 and 2022 of 4.6c.

For that matter what was Feb 1926 like? With a much higher value of 6.8c I can't imagine it could have been much more wintry than this February.

It's pretty easy to imagine that another January of 4.6c could be more wintry than this years though. December 2017 after all had a CET of 4.8c but still had snowy spells, around here at least anyway.

 

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Though the character of January 1926 at least looked very different to this year.

Looking at Monthly Weather Report the first and last 10 days or so were very mild and very wet, but the middle 10 days very cold with lying snow in places in the south.

Off the topic of the current page but to satisfy curiosity...

Looking at the synoptic charts, January 1926 is a bizzare month. Generally westerly, quite breezy and mild for the first ten days, then an extremely quicky shift into cold easterlies and then just as an abrupt switch back to very mild southwesterly winds. It looks like a CFS run.

The C.E.T. up to the 12th was 6.5degC yet the 13th to the 18th averaged -2.4degC, bottoming out on the 16th with a daily mean of -4.8degC. Then the 24th to the 31st averaged 7.1degC.

February 1926 has the mildest minimum average on record, with a figure of 4.5degC. That's +1.1degC above February 2022.

Still, it at least managed one day of cold easterlies. Much more than February 2022 could muster up.

 

January 1927 was different, it was generally mild, unsettled and westerly with frequent areas of low pressure all month. There were no especially mild days or cold days, no northerlies. The best thing it could muster up was an gentle northeasterly on the 18th which probably brought wintry showers. Looks like a very nothingy January.

Edited March 1, 2022 by LetItSnow!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finished on 6.1C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 164.5mm 252.3% of the average rainfall.

[Roger J Smith]

Maybe weather-history has a thread on this, but I seem to remember reading somewhere that 1926 had some very active thunderstorms in the summer. I know there were a few hot spells in July. There was a very severe hurricane near Miami FL in September of that year also. And it was a year ahead of a two-year flat-topped sunspot peak that was probably a bit stronger than the current one will be, but even so only rated "moderate strong" by Schwabe. One thing that is different is that 1926 was an El Nino to neutral type of year not a La Nina like this year. (not 100% certain of those last details, maybe someone has access to older data for SOI). 

 

[Roger J Smith]

The tracker has ended up at 104 mm. Here is a slightly adjusted table of scoring for the EWP contest. 

 

Annual (and seasonal) scoring for the EWP contest

 

Ranks for average error and seasonal rank require entry in at least 2/3 of the contests. Seasonal ranks in the bottom half of the table (where most of the one-entry scores are located) can be worked out by skipping over those with (---) as their average error rank. 53 of the 67 contest forecasters have entered 2 of 3 or all three. Your score in Feb is the last item in each row, and the three monthly ranks are for Dec 2021, Jan 2022 and Feb 2022. This is basically the same table as posted earlier, with average error adjusted, and with a few minor changes in points as 104 mm is 2 mm closer to the five highest forecasts which all moved up slightly. I have used 104.1 mm as the outcome since this table will be adjusted again on the 5th when the tracker value is replaced by a more precise table value. Using 104.1 means there won't be any ties to be untied later, and also makes the change in average error exactly easier to calculate. 

 

 

The table value is 103.8 mm. Here is a slightly adjusted table of scoring for the EWP contest. 

 

Rank __ Forecaster ________ Total Score ____ Avg error (rank) ___ Monthly ranks (Feb score)

_01 ____ freeze ______________ 28.73 ___________17.03 (1) __________ 3,  5,  2 _(9.80)

_02 ____ Feb1991Blizzard ____21.97 ___________32.30 (5) _________  4, 22, 19 (6.73)

_03 ____ Godber1 ____________21.38 __________ 28.70 (2) _________ 16, 6, 28 (5.09)

_04 ____ dancerwithwings ___ 20.39 __________ 33.63 (7) _________ 20, 23, 11 (8.18)

_05 ____ seaside60 ___________19.81 __________ 35.30 (t12) ________ 1, 21, 34 (4.02)

_06 ____ Roger J Smith _______19.69 ___________30.53 (4) __________ 21, 3, 36 (3.67)

_07 ____ Jeff C ________________19.21 __________ 34.63 (t12) ________34, 18, 9 (8.54)

_08 ____ February1978 ______ 19.15 ___________35.03 (11) _________ 8, 30, 21 (6.38)

_09 ____ Polar Gael __________ 18.76 __________ 43.00 (29) ________  9, 48, 4 (9.44)

_10 ____ Bobd29 _____________18.65 __________ 33.67 (8) __________ 43, 15, 7 (8.91)

_11 ____ DiagonalRedLine ___ 18.44 __________ 37.30 (21) ________ 56, 4, 8 (8.72)

_12 ____ Sleety _______________18.20 __________ 37.63 (t17) _______13, 20, 32 (4.43)

_13 ____ J 10 __________________18.05 __________ 35.37 (14) ________26, 28, 14 (7.70)

_14 ____ Ed Stone ____________ 17.46 __________ 37.63 (t17) _______18, 27, 25 (5.71)

_15 ____ Weather26 __________ 17.38 __________ 36.50 (15) _______24, 26, 20 (6.55)

_16 ____ Mr Maunder ________ 16.98 __________ 32.97 (6) _________ 39, 2, 35 (3.85)

_17 ____ Stargazer ____________16.86 __________37.63 (t17) _______ 40, 19, 16 (7.16)

_18 ____ davehsug ____________16.75 __________44.63 (32) _________ 6, 43, 23 (5.89)

_19 ____ Kasim Awan _________16.68 __________37.25 (16) _________---, 9, 10 (8.34)

_20 ____ The PIT ______________16.36 __________ 34.63 (10) ________ 52, 1, 26 (5.28)

_21 ____ daniel* ______________16.30 __________ 37.63 (t17) _______ 30, 7, 42 (2.67)

_22 ____ Leo97t _______________15.94 __________ 33.70 (9) _________ 41, 36, 1 (10.00)

_23 ____ DR(S)NO _____________15.72 __________ 39.63 (24) ________35, 38, 6 (9.15)

_24 ____ stewfox ______________15.63 __________ 39.70 (23) ________ 33, 12, 37 (3.50)

_25 ____ noname_weather ____15.47 __________ 38.97 (22) ________32, 8, 44 (2.43)

_26 ____ virtualsphere _________14.74 __________ 40.97 (26) ________31, 11, 45 (2.12)

_27 ____ Mulzy _________________14.46 __________ 42.30 (28) ________19, 25, 43 (2.55)

_28 ____ Midlands Ice Age _____ 14.35 __________ 44.50 (31) ________ 5, 35, 47 (1.80)

_29 ____ NeilN _________________ 14.34 __________ 43.30 (30) ________53, 13, 24 (5.83)

_30 ____ Don __________________ 14.31 ___________46.03 (35) ________27, 44, 18 (7.04)

_31 ____ stevew ________________14.14 __________ 40.63 (25) ________42, 10, 39 (3.15)

_32 ____ rwtwm ________________12.62 __________ 47.97 (t38) _______50, 41, 5 (9.27)

_33 ____ Frigid _________________ 12.43 __________ 48.57 (40) ________48, 46, 3 (9.63)

_34 ____ summer blizzard _____ 12.35 __________ 47.97 (t38) _______54, 14, 33 (4.30)

_35 ____ summer18 ____________12.25 __________ 61.97 (50) ________17, 51, 29 (4.91)

_36 ____ Jonboy ________________11.91 __________ 45.30 (33) _______ 38, 32, 30 (4.73)

_37 ____ Reef __________________ 11.78 __________ 47.03 (37) _______ 22, 29, 50 (1.40)

_38 ____ Blast from the Past ___ 11.58 __________ 48.63 (40) _______ 12, 40, 49 (1.45)

_39 ____ John 88b ______________ 11.20 __________ 30.10 (3) ________ 10, ----, 41 (2.79)

_40 ____ Norrance ______________10.84 __________ 46.30 (36) _______ 36, 24, 46 (1.84)

_41 ____ Emmett Garland ______ 10.29 __________ 53.97 (46) _______ 15, 45, 48 (1.60)

_42 ____ Mapantz ________________9.82 ___________ 3.60 (---) ________ 2, ----, ---- ( --- )

_43 ____ SteveB __________________9.67 __________ 66.63 (51) _______ 45, 52, 15 (7.28)

_44 ____ summer8906 ___________9.57 __________ 61.25 (49) _______ ----, 42, 13 (7.82)

_45 ____ I Remember Atl252 _____9.44 __________ 56.17 (47) _______ 49, 47, 18 (7.46)

_46 ____ syed2878 _______________9.33 __________ 57.87 (48) _______ 25, 49, 40 (2.97)

_47 ____ prolongedSnowLover ___9.25 __________ 51.70 (43) _______ 23, 39, 54 (0.68)

_48 ____ Stationary Front ________ 9.20 __________ 49.03 (41) _______ 44, 34, 38 (3.38)

_49 ____ AWD ____________________8.94 ___________ 5.40 (---) ________  7, ----, ---- (-----)

_50 ____ snowray ________________ 8.60 __________ 51.80 (44) ______ 51, 17, 55 (0.40)

t51 ____ booferking ______________8.06 ___________ 7.40 (---) _______ 11, ----, ---- (-----)

t52 ____ legritter _________________8.06 __________ 26.10 (---) _______ ----, ----, 12 (8.06)

_53 ____ Let It Snow! _____________7.83 __________ 45.05 (34) ______ 29, 37, ---- (-----)

_54 ____ Typhoon John ___________7.70 ___________ 8.60 (---) _______14, ----, ---- (-----)

_55 ____ weather-history _________7.10 __________ 53.30 (45) ______ 47, 31, 51 (1.00)

_56 ____ Dunstable Snow ________ 6.93 __________ 55.70 (---) ______ ----, 16, ---- (-----)

_57 ____ Downburst ______________ 6.02 __________36.20 (---) ______ ----, ----, 22 (6.02)

_58 ____ Coldest winter ___________5.25 __________ 41.90 (27) ______ 28, ----, 57 (0.00)

_59 ____ Durham Weather ________5.16 __________ 38.60 (---) ______ ----, ----, 27 (5.16)

_60 ____ sukayuonsensnow ______ 4.55 __________ 43.80 (---) ______ ----, ----, 31 (4.55)

_61 ____ sundog __________________ 4.51 __________ 67.75 (52) _____ ----, 33, 53 (0.80)

_62 ____ froze were the days _____ 3.80 __________ 21.40 (---) _____ 37, ----, ---- (-----)

_63 ____ shillitocettwo _____________1.90 __________73.77 (53) _____55, 50, 50 (1.20)

_64 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather _______ 2.09 __________ 28.80 (---) _____ 46, ----, ---- (-----)

_65 ____ Earthshine ________________0.18 __________ 61.40 (---) _____57, ----, ---- (-----)

_66 ____ Ross Andrew Hemphill ___ 0.06 __________ 61.40 (---) _____58, ----, ---- (-----)

_67 ____ Stephen W ________________0.05 __________ 65.80 (---) _____----, ----, 56 (0.05)

=========================================================================

_ 1.9 ____ 1992-2021 avg ___________23.14 _________ 31.07 (4.3) _____1.8, 19.8,17.3 (7.15)

_ 1.8 ____ 1991-2020 avg ___________23.59 _________ 30.67 (4.1) _____1.8, 17.7,18.7 (6.94)

_ 3.8 ____ 1981-2010 avg ___________20.53 _________ 34.17 (9.4) _____14.5,17.2,23.7 (6.05)

_15.9 ____ consensus _____________ 17.05 _________ 38.47 (21.7) _____ 17.5, 22, 28 (5.09)

- - - - - - ==================== - - - - - ==================== - - - - - =================

These scores will be adjusted on 5th March by editing this post. 

Ranks for averages and consensus have a decimal precision to give a better idea where they fit into the ranks of forecasters.

These ranks do not affect forecaster ranks or scores in any way. A decimal rank is interpreted as follows, using the example of rank 1.9 for 1992-2021 avg, that means the total score is between 1st and 2nd in the contest, but closer to 2nd. 

The differential in ranks from 1981-2010 to 1992-2021 (which played Dec as 1991-2020) is due to significant differences that have developed recently, for example, in Feb, 1992-2021 averaged 72.4 mm and 1981-2010 only 66.5 mm. That placed the more recent 30-yr average near 18th place while the 1981-2010 average was closer to 24th. 

You could not do much better than the 1992-2021 average has done, unless you're  freeze who is a long way ahead of the chase pack. (same for 1991-2020, this table edited March 21st after I realized that the 1992-2021 scoring was based on 1991-2020 normals, slight differences have resulted by tracking both _ this did not affect the forecaster scoring or ranks).

Hon. mention to Kasim Awan who joined in January and has a good average score and average error after two contests. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Roger J Smith
clearing up scoring for 1992-2021 and 1991-2020 normals

[Norrance]

On 01/03/2022 at 12:35, Roger J Smith said:

No forecasts right on that value, noname_weather within 0.1 C and coldest winter, stevew within 0.2 C.

From the table of entries, this is the unofficial top scoring for the CET contest, subject to confirmation by J 10. 

Rank_CET _ EWP __ Forecaster (order of entry) ___________________

01__ 6.7 __ 50.0 ___ noname_weather ( 51 ) ____________________

02__ 6.6 __ 35.0 ___ coldest winter ( 19 ) ________________________

03__ 6.6 __ 54.0 ___ stevew ( 38 ) ________________________________

04__ 7.1 __ 60.0 ___ SLEETY ( 12 ) _______________________________

05__ 6.5 __ ------ ___ Richie3846 ( 14 ) ____________________________ 

06__ 6.4 __ 55.0 ___ Stationary Front ( 43 ) ______________________

07__ 6.4 __ 72.0 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ( 48 ) ______________________

08__ 7.2 __ 73.0 ___ Don ( 53 ) __________________________________ 

09__ 7.2 __ 38.0 ___ Stephen W (L1-2) __________________________

10__ 6.3 __120.1___ Polar Gael ( 13 ) _____________________________

11__ 6.3 __ 63.0 ___ Godber1 ( 58 ) _______________________________

12__ 6.2 __ 76.0 ___ dancerwithwings ( 26 ) ______________________

13__ 6.2 __ ------ ___ damianslaw ( 56 ) ____________________________

14__ 6.1 __ 55.0 ___ stewfox ( 06 ) ________________________________

15__ 7.6 __135.0___ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 08 ) ___________________

16__ 6.0 __ 80.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine ( 11 ) ______________________

17__ 6.0 __ 66.0 ___ EdStone ( 18 ) _______________________________ 

18__ 7.6 __ 50.5 ___ syed2878 ( 25 ) ____________________________

19__ 6.0 __ ------ ___ Walsall Wood Snow ( 41 ) __________________

20__ 6.0 __166.0___ Shillitocettwo ( 44 ) _________________________ 

21__ 5.9 __100.0___ Leo97t ( 10 ) ________________________________ 

22__ 5.9 __ 59.0 ___ seaside60 ( 47 ) _____________________________

23__ 5.8 __ 73.0 ___ SteveB ( 17 ) _________________________________

24__ 5.8 __ 75.0 ___ summer8906 ( 23 ) __________________________

25__ 5.8 __ 39.0 ___ snowray ( 52 ) _______________________________

(for the rest, see table of entries on page 3)

(will confirm best combined forecasts with EWP update tomorrow, looks to be on track for 100-102 mm and from preliminary scoring would say Polar Gael has the lowest (best) combined CET and EWP rankings). 

Think that I put in a guess of 6.5C but cannot see it here. It was posted in the 1st so a touch late perhaps?

[Roger J Smith]

22 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Think that I put in a guess of 6.5C but cannot see it here. It was posted in the 1st so a touch late perhaps?

You are correct, I don't suffer from dyslexia but I did enter your forecast in the table of forecasts as 5.6 C (perhaps because there were so many of them). So I have corrected both the post above, and the table of forecasts. I will check that my error did not get into J10's scoring table, probably wouldn't happen. I usually check through the table a few days after the deadline, so either I didn't do that in February or I missed the right value twice. Apologies. 

[Roger J Smith]

Best combined forecast is that of Polar Gael who was 10th CET (11th in table but my convention in this regard is to drop any late forecast by one rank and 10th was late), and 4th EWP. Combined ranks 14. Next would be Leo97t who was 22nd CET and 1st EWP for a combined 23. Dancerwithwings (13, 11 for 24), DiagonalRedLine (17, 8 for 25),  and Don (9, 18 for 27) were also in the 20s combined and ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th best combined. Most of the good CET forecasts were way too dry, and most of the other good EWP forecasts were a bit too cool. 

I Remember Atlantic 252 and shillitocettwo made some prescient comments about the wet second half, but went a bit too high on rainfall resulting in relatively low EWP ranks despite their words verifying in a non-numerical sense. 

 

[J10]

Excel -> February 22 CET.xlsx
PDF -> Feb 2022 Summary.pdf

 

Monthly

As previously confirmed, no one got 6.8c correct.

noname_weather was  closest 0.1c out
coldest winter and Stevew were both 0.2c out.

In total 12 were within 0.5c.

The (mean) average entry was 5.6c, which is well above the Baseline (1981-2010) figure of 4.4c.

This indicates that a lot of entrants picked up the signal for a mild February, but not quite as mild as it turned out.

Seasonal

The 2021/22 competition has finished and the Top 4 is

Stationary Front in 1st  (up from 3rd)
richie3846 in 2nd (up from 8th)
seaside 60 in 3rd (up from 4th)
Freeze in 4th (down from 1st)

Overall

The overall positions are very similar to the monthly with

Stationary Front in 1st  (up from 3rd)
richie3846 in 2nd (up from 9th)
seaside 60 in 3rd equal (up from 4th)
coldest winter in 3rd equal ( up from 23rd) - 2 entries this year so far
Freeze in 5th (down from 1st)

 

[J10]

On 02/03/2022 at 22:54, Norrance said:

Think that I put in a guess of 6.5C but cannot see it here. It was posted in the 1st so a touch late perhaps?

Your entry of 6.5c has been reflected in the monthly scores, which came in 6th position, only 0.3c out, which was a good entry this month.

[richie3846]

12 hours ago, J10 said:

Excel -> February 22 CET.xlsx
PDF -> Feb 2022 Summary.pdf

 

Monthly

As previously confirmed, no one got 6.8c correct.

noname_weather was  closest 0.1c out
coldest winter and Stevew were both 0.2c out.

In total 12 were within 0.5c.

The (mean) average entry was 5.6c, which is well above the Baseline (1981-2010) figure of 4.4c.

This indicates that a lot of entrants picked up the signal for a mild February, but not quite as mild as it turned out.

Seasonal

The 2021/22 competition has finished and the Top 4 is

Stationary Front in 1st  (up from 3rd)
richie3846 in 2nd (up from 8th)
seaside 60 in 3rd (up from 4th)
Freeze in 4th (down from 1st)

Overall

The overall positions are very similar to the monthly with

Stationary Front in 1st  (up from 3rd)
richie3846 in 2nd (up from 9th)
seaside 60 in 3rd equal (up from 4th)
coldest winter in 3rd equal ( up from 23rd) - 2 entries this year so far
Freeze in 5th (down from 1st)

 

It's the first time I've entered the competition, so I feel like I may have fluked 2nd place!

[Dancerwithwings]

6 hours ago, richie3846 said:

It's the first time I've entered the competition, so I feel like I may have fluked 2nd place!

Fair play, but it’s still a long way to go as yet, I’ve been right up on top in the past, even 1st place for a number of months and and then falling short with a month or so to go come November .... it’s all ....well...Mmmm a guessing game

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP is now confirmed at 103.8 mm. This is close enough to the tracker 104 mm that I don't expect any recalculations on scoring but will do those later and edit in any changes that are significant.