February 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[seaside 60]

If that high stays near by then not much will happen extreme wise.

SO based on that then the following please.

5.9c

59mm

If the high stays further away then the above is a bust. 

[feb1991blizzard]

6.4c and 72mm rain please

[Midlands Ice Age]

A dryish month....  47.4mms

Becoming somewhat colder later on     4.9C

MIA

[emmett garland]

A synchronized 4.7oc and 47mm please

[noname_weather]

6.7C and 50mm

[snowray]

5.8c and 39mm please.

[Don]

7.2C and 73mm please.

Mild for all, particularly southern UK with some brief polar outbreaks further north.  Not expecting any lying snow south of high ground northern England.  Overall, the warmest February since 1998.  Another dry month for the south, although likely to be wetter than January.  Northern areas average or slightly wetter than average.

[sundog]

5.5c and 40mm for me please 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with another mild winter month but dry’ish at 5.6c and 40mm pls.

Edited January 31, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover
Grammar

[damianslaw]

A mild February, 6.2 degrees, not expecting any notable cold apart from northern parts at times later in the month. Outside chance might see something a bit colder further south should high pressure align to allow for cold clear nights, a bit like January.

[Roger J Smith]

You aren't late ... I posted this early to preserve it, will edit it down to the end of on-time entries at midnight. 

The consensus of on time entries so far is 5.6 and 63.5 mm. Quite mild and rather dry is the group's general opinion.

 

Table of forecasts for February 2022

Has been repositioned at end of on-time entries.

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

5.1c and 75mm

[February1978]

Rather mild and dry initially, getting wetter

5.7c and 70mm please

[Godber 1]

6.3 and 63mm, hoping it's much lower, but just can't see it atm.

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for February 2022

Number in brackets indicates order of entry. You can continue to enter with increasing late penalties until the end of 3rd Feb. Those later entries will be edited into the table. Order of entry for late entries look like this (L1-1) (L2-2) ... those would mean "one day late, first entry" and "two days late, second entry." ... A later revised entry is given the order of entry of that time stamp, but if one element (CET, EWP) is not revised, it retains the original order of entry. For an EWP entry left unchanged with a CET revision, the order of entry drops back 0.5 from its original number as order of entry is based on CET forecasts. (this will be shown if any order of entry brackets contain two numbers rather than one, the first applies to CET).

 

CET _ EWP ___ Forecaster (order of entry) ________________ CET _ EWP ___ Forecaster (order of entry)

8.0 __ 55.5 ___ Roger J Smith ( 35 ) ________________________ 5.5 __ 60.0 ___ sukayuonsensnow ( 02 ) __

8.0 __ 65.2 ___ Durham Weather (L1-1) __________________

7.6 __135.0___ I Remember Atlantic 252 ( 08 ) ___________ 5.5 __ 65.0 ___ The PIT ( 22 ) _________

7.6 __ 50.5 ___ syed2878 ( 25 ) ____________________________ 5.5 __ 44.0 ___ Reef ( 45 ) _________

7.2 __ 73.0 ___ Don ( 53 ) __________________________________ 5.5 __ 85.0 ___ DR(S)NO ( 46 ) _____ 

7.2 __ 38.0 ___ Stephen W (L1-2) __________________________ 5.5 __ 40.0 ___ sundog ( 54 ) _____

7.1 __ 60.0 ___ SLEETY ( 12 ) _______________________________ 5.4 __ 82.3 ___ bobd29 ( 09 ) _____

6.7 __ 50.0 ___ noname_weather ( 51 ) ____________________5.4 __ 50.0 ___ daniel ( 37 ) _______

6.6 __ 35.0 ___ coldest winter ( 19 ) ________________________5.4 __ 77.0 ___ Kasim Awan ( 40 ) _

6.6 __ 54.0 ___ stevew ( 38 ) ________________________________5.4 __ 50.0 ___ Mulzy ( 42 ) ________

6.5 __ ------ ___ Richie3846 ( 14 ) ____________________________5.3 __ ------ ___ Kentish Man ( 28 ) __ 

6.5 __ 49.0 ___ Norrance (L1-3) _____________________________

6.4 __ 55.0 ___ Stationary Front ( 43 ) ______________________5.2 _ 67.6 ___ Downburst ( 01 ) ____

6.4 __ 72.0 ___ Feb1991Blizzard ( 48 ) ______________________5.2 _ 73.0 ___ Stargazer ( 24 ) _______

6.3 __120.1___ Polar Gael ( 13 ) ____________________________ 5.2 _ 90.0 ___ freeze ( 33 ) ___________

6.3 __ 63.0 ___ Godber1 ( 58 ) ______________________________ 5.1 _ 57.0 ___ Mr Maunder ( 34 ) ____

6.2 __ 76.0 ___ dancerwithwings ( 26 ) _____________________ 5.1 _ 75.0 ___ J 10 ( 57 ) _____________

6.2 __ ------ ___ damianslaw ( 56 ) __________________________ 5.0 _ ------ ___ Mark Bayley ( 31 ) ____

6.1 __ 55.0 ___ stewfox ( 06 ) _______________________________ 4.9 ___ 47.4 ___ Midlands Ice Age ( 49 )

6.0 __ 80.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine ( 11 ) ______________________4.9 _ 72.4 ___ 1991-2020 average ___

6.0 __ 66.0 ___ EdStone ( 18 ) _______________________________ 4.8 _ 61.0 ___ jonboy ( 39 ) __________ 

6.0 __ ------ ___ Walsall Wood Snow ( 41 ) ___________________ 4.8 _ ------ ___ Duncan McAlister (L1-5)

6.0 __166.0___ Shillitocettwo ( 44 ) _________________________ 4.7 _ 47.0 ___ Emmett Garland ( 50 ) __ 

5.9 __100.0___ Leo97t ( 10 ) ________________________________ 4.7 _ 68.0 ___ davehsug (L1-4) ________

5.9 __ 59.0 ___ seaside60 ( 47 ) _____________________________4.6 _ 60.0 ___ summer blizzard ( 29 ) ___

5.8 __ 73.0 ___ SteveB ( 17 ) _________________________________4.5 _ 62.0 ___ Summer18 ( 05 ) _______

5.8 __ 75.0 ___ summer8906 ( 23 ) __________________________4.4 _ 42.0 ___ weather-history ( 30 ) __

5.8 __ 39.0 ___ snowray ( 52 ) _______________________________4.4 _ 66.5 ___ 1981-2010 average _____

5.7 __136.0___ Weather26 ( 15 ) ____________________________4.3 _ 76.0 ___ legritter ( 32 ) _________  

5.7 __ 70.0 ___ February 1978 ( 59 ) ________________________ 4.1 _ 66.0 ___ Neil N ( 04 ) ___________  

5.6 __120.0___ Frigid ( 03 ) __________________________________ 4.1 _ 48.0 ___ Blast From the Past (L2-1)

5.6 __ ------ ___ Summer Sun ( 21 ) __________________________ 4.0 _ 78.0 ___ JeffC ( 16 ) ____________  

5.6 __ 85.0 ___ rwtwm ( 36 ) _________________________________3.7 _ 49.0 ___ virtualsphere ( 20 ) ____

5.6 __ 40.0 ___ prolongedSnowLover ( 55 ) _________________ 3.5 _ 50.0 ___ John88b ( 27 ) __________ 

____________________________________________________________ 1.2 _ ------ ___ Lukemcd ( 07 ) ________

5.6 __ 63.0 ___ consensus 

59 on time forecasts plus five that are one day late, and one so far that is two days late,  65 total

... ... consensus 5.6

==========================================================

 

EWP forecasts in order

 

166_shil ... 136_wx26 ... 135_IRem ... 120.1_PG ... 120_Frig ... 100_leo ... 90_fre ... 85_rwtwm,DR(S)

... 82.3_bob ...  80_DRL ... 78_Jeff ... 77_KA ... 76_dww,legr ... 75_sum8906,J10 ... 73_SteveB, star,Don

... 72.4_91-20 ...  72_feb91 ... 70_Feb78 ... 68_dave^ ... 67.6_down ... 66.5_81-10 ... 66_NN,EdS ... 65.2_DWx^

...65_PIT ... 63.0_con ... 63_godb ... 62_sum18 ... 61_jon ... 60_sukay, SLE, sb ... 59_sea ... 57_MrM ... 55.5_RJS

... 55_stew, SF ... 54_stevew ... 50.5_syed ... 50_john,dan*,mul,non ... 49_virt, Norr^ ... 48_BFTP^^ ... 47.4_MIA

... 47_EG ... 44_Reef ... 42_wx-his ... 40_sun,pSL ... 39_snow ... 38_StW^  ... 35_cw

__________________

52 on-time forecasts, plus four that are one day late (^) and one more two days late (^^) ... 57 total

... ... consensus 64.0 mm. 

 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith
correcting entry for Norrance (had it as 5.6 not 6.5)

[Durham Weather]

8.0C and 65.2mm

[Stephen W]

7.2C and 38mm.  I think it could be exceptionally mild and dry, especially southern England.

[Norrance]

6.5C and 49 mms please.

[davehsug]

Oh dear, late again. It's a good job I'm terrible anyway.

4.7C & 68 mm please.

[Duncan McAlister]

4.8 for me please, sorry for the late guess!

[Roger J Smith]

CET extremes for February (1772-2021) and 1981-2010, 1991-2020 means

____________________________________________________________

DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1981-2010 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET 

01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.4 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956)
02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.2 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956)
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... .. 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ...10.8 (1923) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956)
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956)
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ... 11.4 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830)

06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.9 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830)
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.3 (1994) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830)
08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 9.6 (1994) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816)*... ... ... ... .. 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.4 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.8 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.4 (1895)

21 Feb ... 11.2 (2019) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855) 
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.3 (1855&1895) 

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.1 (1855&1895&1947)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947)

29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 6.9 (1872) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956)

*(1895 was -7.4 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3).

_________________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means (in that order for each day)

01 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 06 __ 4.9 _ 4.5 ____ 11 __ 4.5 _ 4.4 ____ 16 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 21 __ 5.3 _ 4.7 ____ 26 __ 5.7 _ 4.9

02 __ 4.3 _ 4.4 ____ 07 __ 4.4 _ 4.5 ____ 12 __ 5.0 _ 4.5 ____ 17 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 22 __ 5.3 _ 4.7 ____ 27 __ 5.5 _ 4.9

03 __ 4.3 _ 4.3 ____ 08 __ 4.2 _ 4.5 ____ 13 __ 4.8 _ 4.5 ____ 18 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 23 __ 5.6 _ 4.7 ____ 28 __ 4.9 _ 4.9*

04 __ 4.3 _ 4.3 ____ 09 __ 4.1 _ 4.4 ____ 14 __ 4.3 _ 4.5 ____ 19 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 24 __ 5.8 _ 4.8 ____ 29 __ 5.4 _ 4.9*

05 __ 4.8 _ 4.4 ____ 10 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 15 __ 5.1 _ 4.5 ____ 20 __ 5.0 _ 4.7 ____ 25 __ 5.4 _ 4.8

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

* technical note: these are not the running means for only those years ending on 28th or that were leap years,

they are the same value (end of February running mean, regardless of number of days in month). 

The mean of the eight leap years in the period (1992,96,2000,04,08,12,16,20) was actually 5.00

The mean of the other 22 Febs was 4.86. The mean of all thirty was 4.90. 

If the 22 years that were not leap years used their 1st March values, the average for 29th Feb would be 5.0. 

===========================================================================

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mild to average 1st half, then cold latter half/3rd.  Quite dry

 

4.1 c and 48mm

 

BFTP

Edited February 2, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 1st

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 8.5c on the 1st
Current low this month 8.5c on the 1st

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 2nd

4.8c above the 61 to 90 average
4.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 8.5c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 4th February 

These almanac entries will migrate over to the February thread starting with the next (4th Feb) instalment. 

 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 12.8 in 2004 (highest mean of all days in February); this replaced 10.9 from 1801. Other mild readings include 10.7 in 1869 and 1909, 10.3 in 1775, 10.1 in 1937 and 1999, 9.9 in 1801, 9.8 in 1862, 9.2 in 1913, 9.1 in 1957. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -5.0 in 1912. Other low daily means were -3.8 in 1814, -3.6 in 1799, -3.0 in 1841 and 2012, -2.9 in 1954, -2.7 in 1830, and -2.5 in 1772. 

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 14.5 in 2004 which replaced 12.3 from 1999, which had replaced 12.0 from 1933. Other mild days include 12.3 1999, 11.9 in 2002, 11.8 in 1909, 11.7 in 1957, 11.6 in 1966, 1984 and 2016, 11.4 in 1914 and 2011, 11.3 in 1989, and 11.2 in 1913, 1937 and 1990.  

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 10.8 in 2004 (the highest value for all of February) which replaced 9.6 from 1909. Other mild minimum readings were 9.0 in 1937, 7.9 in 1999, 7.6 in 1881, 7.3 in 1938, and 7.2 in 1887, 1913 and 1915.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.0 in 1912. Other cold values were 0.1 (1954), 0.9 (1963), 1.2 (2012), and 1.3 (1947). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -9.7 in 1956 which replaced -6.9 from 1912. Other cold minima include -7.2 in 2012,  -5.9 in 1954, -5.8 in 1983, -5.6 in 1963, -5.2 in 1949, -4.8 in 1899, -4.4 in 1968, -4.1 in 1917, -4.0 in 1936, -3.8 in 1991, and -3.7 in 1907 and 1965. 

The wettest 4th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 13.99 mm (1980), followed by 13.79 mm (2001), 12.84 mm (1951), 12.71 mm (2002), 11.90 mm (2012), and 11.60 mm (1955).

The wettest week ending 4th February (29th Jan - 4th Feb) was 57.27 mm in 1950, followed by 51.75 mm (1980 and 1990), 51.33 mm (1945), and 51.15 mm (1946).

The least amount falling in a week ending 4th February was 0.21 mm (2006), followed by 0.38 mm (1939), 0.52 mm (2007), 0.61 mm (1996), 0.87 mm (1932), 1.02 mm (1993), 1.06 mm (1959), 1.07 mm (1949), and 1.41 mm (1998).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 2012, with cold air gradually giving way to somewhat milder air, and mixed bands of precipitation.) 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2012&maand=2&dag=04&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa