February 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 40mm 61.3% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 12th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 14th February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.2 in 1794, and since then 10.1 in 1998 is the highest. Other mild daily means include 9.7 from 1791 and 1848, 9.6 in 1914, 9.5 in 1961 and 9.3 in 1882.  

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -7.1 in 1929, which replaced -5.4 from 1895. Other low daily means were -4.2 in 1855, -3.6 in 1865, -3.3 in 1838, -2.6 in 1901, -2.5 in 1808, -2.2 in 1853 and 1860, and -1.9 in 1986 and 1994.  

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 15.8 in 1998 which replaced 13.7 from 1961. Other mild days include 13.3 in 1914, 13.1 in 1958, 12.3 in 2019, 12.1 in 1943, 12.0 in 1937, 11.9 in 1949 and 1988, 11.4 in 1905 and 1995, and 11.2 in 1884. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 7.7 in 1882. This is the second lowest value for daily high minimum in both February and the calendar year. The next two high minimum values were 7.1 in 1946, and 6.3 in 1935. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.6 in 1929 which edged out -1.5 from 1895.  Other cold values were -0.4 (1979), -0.2 (1947 and 1986), -0.1 (1994), 0.2 (1956), 0.7 (1940), 1.4 (1924), and 1.8 (1902).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -12.5 in 1929.  Other cold minima include -9.2 in 1895, -7.2 in 1901 and 1991, -5.8 in 1902, -5.5 in 1985, -5.1 in 1936, -4.8 in 1981, -4.6 in 1888, -4.3 in 1909, -4.0 in 1970, -3.9 in 1956, -3.7 in 1994, and -3.5 in 1986 and 2003. 

The wettest 14th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 16.02 mm (2014), followed by 14.19 mm (1974), and 13.99 mm (2006).

The wettest week ending 14th February (8th - 14th Feb) was 61.95 mm (1974), followed by 52.01 mm (1950) and 50.09 mm (2014).

The least amount falling in a week ending 14th February was 0.29 mm (1934), followed by 0.58 mm (1967), 0.67 mm (1984), 0.72 mm (2008), 0.82 mm (1986), and 1.04 mm (1993).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1853, a cold spell with strong northeast winds and snow; this contributed to a maritime disaster on the east coast of Ireland early on the 15th when the PS Queen Victoria (out of Liverpool) ran aground twice near Howth Head, Dublin around 0200h 15th, so the map link is for 15th 00z.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1853&maand=2&dag=15&uur=0000&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

This is a link to the details of the disaster, which took the lives of more than 80 on board (17 made it ashore in a lifeboat).

https://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS_Queen_Victoria_(1838)

This reminded me that back on 30 Jan in the almanac, I failed to note the 1953 windstorm, and the odd coincidence that the car ferry that sank near Belfast was the Princess Victoria. There was also a riverboat capsize event (caused by overcrowding) with numerous casualties in London ON in 1883 that was yet another vessel with the name Victoria. 

 

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 13th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 6.1C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall up 50mm 76.7% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 15th February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.2 in 1958, which replaced 10.8 from 1850. Other mild daily means include 10.5 in 1928, 9.9 in 1794 and 1949, 9.8 in 1798 and 1998, 9.7 in 1867, 9.6 in 1914 and 1926, and 9.4 in 1937.   

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -8.0 in 1929, which replaced -4.4 from 1855. Other low daily means were -4.0 in 1895, -3.5 in 1843, -3.4 in 1979, -3.2 in 1808, -2.9 in 1969, -2.8 in 1985, -2.3 in 1970, and -1.9 in 1984.  

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 14.2 in 1998 and 2019 which replaced 13.2 from 1926. Other mild days include 13.0 in 1928, 12.6 in 1988, 12.4 in 1958, 12.2 in 2020, 12.1 in 1935, 11.9 in 2021, 11.7 in 1939, 11.6 in 1950 and 1961, 11.5 in 1949 and 2007, and 11.4 in 1898. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 10.0 in 1958. Other high minimum values were 8.3 in 1949, 8.0 in 1928, 7.9 in 1914, 7.5 in 1937, and 7.1 in 1948. 

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -3.9 in 1929 which replaced -1.3 from 1895.  Other cold values were -1.5 (1979), -0.9 (1969), -0.5 (1947 and 1985), 0.5 (1940), 0.8 (1984), 1.2 (1963 and 1986), and 1.5 (1953). 

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -12.1 in 1929.  Other cold minima include -6.7 in 1970, -6.6 in 1895, -6.1 in 1973, -5.2 in 1979, -5.1 in 1985, -5.0 in 1924, -4.8 in 1969 and 1981, -4.7 in 1984, -4.4 in 1956 and 1991, -3.7 in 1901, and -3.6 in 2003. 

The wettest 15th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 27.65 mm (2020), the heaviest daily rainfall in February, followed (15th only) by 10.39 mm (1972) and 9.26 mm (1935). The monthly record replaced 24.97 mm (27th Feb, 1967). 

The wettest week ending 15th February (9th - 15th Feb) was 66.42 mm (2020), also a record weekly amount for February, followed (9th to 15th only) by 52.37 mm (1974), and 51.49 mm (1950). The monthly record edged out 65.36 mm (30th Jan to 5th Feb, 1950). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 15th February was 0.29 mm (1934), followed by 0.46 mm (1986), 0.47 mm (1984), 0.63 mm (2008), and 0.96 mm (1993).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1929, most severe February cold after 1895.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1929&maand=2&dag=15&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited February 15, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.1C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 52.9mm 81.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 14th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update ... the total to the present time is around 42 mm (counting first half of today) and the projection to mid-day 25th appears to be around 40 mm on average (much greater amounts in parts of Wales and northern England, generally 15-20 in south). That would suggest an EWP around 80-85 mm with a short time left in the month and probably one more precip event in the ongoing zonal flow, perhaps reaching around 100 mm for a total. 

The CET projection looks fairly flat to me, with more mild spikes to come, offsetting some colder days, so I don't see the outcome leaving the 6s although I suppose high fives might be in play especially after adjustments? Any hope of going higher than now would rest on each mild sector doing its utmost and spreading its wealth into two days rather than just one. Not that many are hoping for that but I was. 

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow could bring widespread very high maxima. 17 degrees in SE parts. Any date records to be broken?

Edited February 15, 2022 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 16th February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.0 in 1928, the lowest such value for February, which replaced 9.9 from 1867. 9.7 is the highest value since 1928 (from 1998). Other mild daily means include 9.8 in 1869, 9.6 in 1950, and 9.4 in 1949.   

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -7.3 in 1855. Other low daily means were -4.0 in 1929, -3.4 in 1969, -3.2 in 1827, -3.1 in 1947, -2.8 in 1843, -2.5 in 1895, -2.4 in 1985, -2.2 in 1782, and -2.1 in 1979 and -2.0 in 1892.  

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 12.4 in 2019 which replaced 12.2 from 1950. Other mild days include 12.1 in 1949, 12.0 in 1935, 11.4 in 1921, and 11.2 in 1998.

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.4 in 1928. Other high minimum values were 8.1 in 1998, 7.5 in 1937, 7.4 in 1958, and 7.3 in 2020.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -1.2 in 1947 which replaced -1.0 from 1929.  Other cold values were -0.2 (1892), 0.1 (1979 and 1986), 0.5 (1969), 1.0 (1963), 1.1 (1942), 1.3 (1895), 2.0 (1984), and 2.1 (1886).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -7.2 in 1969 and 1985.  Other cold minima include -6.9 in 1929, -4.9 in 1947, -4.7 in 1902, -4.6 in 1940, -4.3 in 1970 and 1979, -3.9 in 1942, 1953, 1973 and 1984, -3.7 in 1892, and -3.5 in 1956. 

The wettest 16th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 10.10 mm (1951), followed by 8.94 mm (1995), 8.34 mm (1940), 8.31 mm (2020), and 8.25 mm (1967). 

The wettest week ending 16th February (10th - 16th Feb) was 61.41 mm (2020), followed by 46.69 mm (1974), and 45.50 mm (1995). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 16th February was 0.24 mm (1934), followed by 0.28 mm (1986), 0.43 mm (1985), 0.50 mm (1984), 0.60 mm (2008), 0.82 mm (1993), 1.26 mm (1981), and 1.52 mm (1959).

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1969, with a fairly cold spell and some snowfalls.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1969&maand=2&dag=16&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited February 16, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 15th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[Scorcher]

Looking like another very mild month on the cards. Hard to see how the CET is going to be dented that much with such an unsettled outlook. The trend for the month has been for the odd cooler day offset by a series of mild ones- looks like that's going to continue.

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Looking like another very mild month on the cards. Hard to see how the CET is going to be dented that much with such an unsettled outlook. The trend for the month has been for the odd cooler day offset by a series of mild ones- looks like that's going to continue.

Similar to Feb 2020 and 2014 in many ways..

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.2C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall 57.5mm 88.2% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 17th February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 10.7 in 1878, which replaced 10.5 from 1852. The highest values since 1878 were 10.3 in both 1911 and 1950, and since then just 9.7 from 2019. Other mild daily means include 10.0 in 1920, 9.9 from 1847, 9.8 in 1876, 9.5 in 1817 and 9.4 in 1912. This is another example in February of a day where most of the milder days were before the christmas pudding.

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -7.1 in 1855. Other low daily means were -4.7 in 1929, -4.3 in 1892, -3.9 in 1827, -3.1 in 1947, -2.5 in 1895, -2.0 in 1969, and -1.8 in 1820.   

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 14.2 in 1878 and 1920. Other mild days include 14.0 in 1950, 13.2 in 2019, 12.5 in 1911, 12.4 in 1899 and 1998, 12.3 in 1980, 12.1 in 1990, 11.8 in 1910, 11.7 in 1949, 11.6 in 1945 and 2021, and 11.4 in 1889 and 2017. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 8.1 in 1911. Other high minimum values were 7.6 in 1912, and 7.2 in 1878 and 1921.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -2.3 in 1947 which replaced -0.1 from 1892 and 1929.  Other cold values were -0.2 (1979), 0.9 (1940), 1.3 (1956), 1.6 (1955 and 1986), 1.7 (1963), 2.0 (1895), 2.1 (1942), and 2.2 (1886).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -9.2 in 1929.  Other cold minima include -8.5 in 1892, -7.0 in 1895, -6.9 in 1969, -6.3 in 1902, -5.2 in 2008, -4.9 in 1985, -4.7 in 1888 and 1955, -4.3 in 1936 and 1973, -4.2 in 1970, -4.1 in 1887, -3.8 in 1947, and -3.7 in 1924 and 2003.

The wettest 17th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 14.60 mm (1997), followed by 13.12 mm (1936), and 10.33 mm (1989). 

The wettest week ending 17th February (11th - 17th Feb) was 57.14 mm (2020), followed by 42.36 mm (2014), and 42.23 mm (1995). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 17th February was 0.11 mm (1934), followed by 0.23 mm (1984), 0.29 mm (1986), 0.30 mm (1985), 0.57 mm (2008), 0.88 mm (1993), 1.04 mm (2019), 1.16 mm (1981), 1.43 mm (1942) 1.49 mm (1959), 1.56 mm (1947), and 1.65 mm (1983). Note the concentration of years from 1981 to 1986 in this list. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1855, the heart of a lengthy cold spell with significant snowfalls.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1855&maand=2&dag=17&uur=0600&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 16th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 2nd
Current low this month 6.8c on the 12th

[summer blizzard]

When was the last first half as mild as this.

[Don]

30 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

When was the last first half as mild as this.

1998 or 2002?  Or maybe 2004 which had a very mild first half?

Edited February 17, 2022 by Don

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall 67.4mm 103.4% of the monthly average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 hours ago, Don said:

1998 or 2002?  Or maybe 2004 which had a very mild first half?

The provisional February CET up to the 14th was 6.9*C, which makes it I believe, provisionally the mildest first half of February since possibly 2011; correct me if I am wrong?  

[Roger J Smith]

To allow for some downward adjustment in final data, in reverse chronological order, these Febs had running CET of 6.6 or higher on 14th (figure in brackets is after 16d to compare with current reported 7.1 or 6.8 adjusted):

2011 _ 7.1 (6.7)

2004 _ 8.0 (7.7)

2002 _ 8.2 (7.7)

2000 _ 7.1 (6.8)

1998 _ 6.7 (7.0)

1995 _ 6.9 (7.0)

1990 _ 6.9 (6.5)

1982 _ 6.7 (6.2)

1981 _ 6.7 (6.6)

1961 _ 7.2 (7.3)

1957 _ 7.0 (6.5)

1948 _ 7.6 (7.5)

1946 _ 7.7 (7.7)

1945 _ 6.6 (6.4)

1933 _ 6.7 (6.1)

1923 _ 6.7 (6.4)

1918 _ 8.1 (7.6)

1914 _ 8.2 (8.1)

1903 _ 7.4 (7.2)

1894 _ 6.6 (6.4)

1877 _ 7.9 (7.7)

1874 _ 7.4 (7.0)

1869 _ 8.8 (8.8)

1867 _ 7.0 (7.4)

1833 _ 7.0 (6.4)

1792 _ 7.0 (6.6)

1779 _ 7.8 (7.8)

============================

If we really were at 6.9 on 14th, then it would rank tied 18th mildest first half, but if it becomes 6.6 then it would be tied 26th mildest. 

Have to say, the provisional mean of 10.1 for 16th seems a bit low, I think it is because the min includes cooler readings before midnight, not sure if that implies an upward revision could happen. The provisional max is listed as 13.5 which seems a bit stingy as several locations were 15 or better. Even so, these values are still higher than the daily records which happen to be unusually low on the 16th compared to some other days. 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The provisional February CET up to the 14th was 6.9*C, which makes it I believe, provisionally the mildest first half of February since possibly 2011; correct me if I am wrong?  

That is correct. In the more distant past, there have been six first halves of February warmer than the eventual warmest full month (1779 was 7.9 by 28th) which shows the potential for some February eventually to record a full month above 8 C. The mid-Jan to mid-Feb average in 2002 is warmer than either Jan 1916 or Feb 1779. 

[Roger J Smith]

Almanac for 18th February 

The highest daily mean (1772-2021) was 11.7 in 1945, which replaced 11.1 from 1911.  The highest value since 1945 was 10.0 in 1950 but the highest since that is only 8.5 (1961) and since then just 8.2 (2014, 2019, 2021). Other mild daily means include 10.1 in 1851, 10.0 in 1809 (and 1950), 9.9 in 1779, 9.6 in 1862 and 1878, and 9.5 in 1817. 

The lowest daily mean (1772-2021) was -3.9 in 1855. Other low daily means were -3.7 in 1827, -3.6 in 1929, -3.1 in 1792 and 1892, -2.9 in 1947, -2.5 in 1807, -2.2 in 1795, 1810 and 1985, -2.1 in 1785, -2.0 in 1969, and -1.8 in 1955.   

The highest maximum (1878-2021) was 15.0 in 1945 which replaced 14.6 from 1920. Other mild days include 12.5 in 1911, 12.4 in 1989, 12.3 in 1878, 12.0 in 1961, 11.9 in 1950, 11.8 in 1889 and 1936, and 11.7 in 1912. 

The highest minimum (1878-2021) was 9.0 in 1911. Other high minimum values were 8.3 in 1945, 8.0 in 1950, 6.9 in 1878, and 6.8 in 1993.

The lowest maximum (1878-2021) was -0.8 in 1947 which replaced -0.4 from 1942. Other cold values were 0.3 (1892), 0.5 (1979), 0.8 (1955), 1.1 (1956 and 1985), 1.3 (1986), 1.5 (1978), 1.7 (1969), 2.0 (1902 and 1964), and 2.1 (1895).

The lowest minimum (1878-2021) was -9.8 in 1929.  Other cold minima include -6.6 in 1940, -6.5 in 1892, -5.7 in 1969, -5.5 in 1985, -5.2 in 1895, -5.3 in 2003, -4.9 in 1947, -4.8 in 2008, -4.4 in 1978, -4.3 in 1955 and 1963, and -3.5 in 1902, 1960 and 1968.

The wettest 18th of February (1931-2021) in the EWP data was 12.27 mm (1966), followed by 10.63 mm (1977), and 10.19 mm (1940). 

The wettest week ending 18th February (12th - 18th Feb) was 59.36 mm (2020), followed by 38.74 mm (1995), and 38.65 mm (2014). 

The least amount falling in a week ending 18th February was 0.14 mm (1934), followed by 0.26 mm (1984), 0.32 mm (1985), 0.40 mm (1986), 0.56 mm (2008), 0.58 mm (1981), 0.65 mm (1983), 0.75 mm (2003), 0.79 mm (1998), 1.02 mm (1942), 1.17 mm (1993), 1.28 mm (1959), 1.40 mm (1961), 1.49 mm (1947), and 1.56 mm (1932). Note the increasing number of quite dry spells compared to recent days. 

-----------------------------

(Today's map link is for 1945, quite a warm day in contrast to the very cold January of that year.)  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1945&maand=2&dag=18&uur=1200&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Edited February 18, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[North-Easterly Blast]

Again we avoid a cold February.  It is now 31 years since the last significantly cold February CET, in 1991 at 1.5*C.  After so long it does make us all wonder is if we will ever see a really cold February again.  Although in recent times we did get a fairly cold February in 2018 at 2.9 CET, and prior to that we saw 2.8*C in 2010, but we have not had what you could reasonably call a notably cold February since 1991. 

The 31 year run and counting, must be close to a record time interval without a really cold February (CET going under 2*C), and also for that matter, the February CET has not gone under 2.8*C for 26 years and counting, and extending that threshold further, it has not gone under 2.5*C for 31 years and counting.

Edited February 18, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast